What if the Plan Was?

Russia’s central strategic problem is NATO. Russia must break the back of NATO. But how?

Step One, the Arab Spring: The best attack is always an indirect attack. So Russia began its attack on NATO hundreds of miles away, in the Arab world. Revolution is the perfect strategy for a country like Russia, which is rich in clandestine and criminal resources. (In Egypt’s revolution, for example, the first flags raised in protest were red. The green flags only came out afterward.) The Arab Spring revolutions were calculated to shake things up. Islamist and communist forces were initially linked, arm-in-arm. If they failed to get power, the resulting chaos would nonetheless serve other purposes. For example, the civil war in Syria presents a prime example. The Russians, who dominate the criminal underworld, created the transport net for moving millions of Muslim refugees to the heart of Europe. Russian air units carpet bombed Syrian cities and villages, driving hundreds of thousands out of their homes. Next, they salted the fleeing multitudes with military-age men trained as terrorists. Then Europe was hit by a new wave of terror.

Déjà Vu — The 1930s are coming back.

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What happens after a globe-shaking financial crisis? We are stumbling through one right now, and we all want to know what we are in for next. Fortunately—and unfortunately—this situation is precedented.

Early last century, the globe’s First World War extinguished lives, torched economies and left Europe smoldering with grievances. Afterward, the world was rocked by the most violent financial earthquake in modern times—the Great Depression.

The nations were churning: brutal dictators were rising, anti-Semitism was becoming mainstream, civil war erupted in Spain, Japan invaded Manchuria, Italy invaded Ethiopia. But instead of facing the challenges, Britain and America turned increasingly inward, focusing on their own wounded economies, slashing their militaries and pointedly ignoring the world outside.

Decades after World War III, will historians be writing something similar? The nations were churning. Radical dictators were rising, anti-Semitism was becoming mainstream, Germany conquered the Balkans, Russia invaded Georgia, civil wars erupted in the Middle East, China built a military powerhouse, a new strongman arose in Russia, a crafty emperor arose in Europe. But instead of facing the challenges, Britain and America turned increasingly inward, focusing on their wounded economies, slashing their militaries and pointedly ignoring the world outside.