What if the Plan Was?

Russia’s central strategic problem is NATO. Russia must break the back of NATO. But how?

Step One, the Arab Spring: The best attack is always an indirect attack. So Russia began its attack on NATO hundreds of miles away, in the Arab world. Revolution is the perfect strategy for a country like Russia, which is rich in clandestine and criminal resources. (In Egypt’s revolution, for example, the first flags raised in protest were red. The green flags only came out afterward.) The Arab Spring revolutions were calculated to shake things up. Islamist and communist forces were initially linked, arm-in-arm. If they failed to get power, the resulting chaos would nonetheless serve other purposes. For example, the civil war in Syria presents a prime example. The Russians, who dominate the criminal underworld, created the transport net for moving millions of Muslim refugees to the heart of Europe. Russian air units carpet bombed Syrian cities and villages, driving hundreds of thousands out of their homes. Next, they salted the fleeing multitudes with military-age men trained as terrorists. Then Europe was hit by a new wave of terror.