Automatic Job Storm Coming

 

Almost every weekday, some arm of the US government issues some sort of economic statistic. News media and financial analysts review and report it. Then 99.9% of the adult population, and probably 90% of the financial industry, forget all about it. And they’re probably right to do so.

The monthly jobs report isn’t like that. Yes, any single month doesn’t tell us much. Yes, the Labor Department’s methodology has some flaws, both major and minor. But imperfect as it is, the jobs report is our best look at the economy’s pulse. Jobs matter in a visceral way to almost all of us, as you know well if you’ve ever lost one. Almost any survey that asked questions around employment would reveal the angst that many Americans feel about the possibility of losing their jobs.

Right now, automation tops the list of things that might threaten our jobs. Artificial intelligence and robotics technology are rapidly learning to do what human workers do, but better, faster, and cheaper. Continue reading

De-Dollarization Continues: China, Iran To Eliminate Greenback From Bilateral Trade

 

The more Washington lashes out in anger at those who will not bow to the unipolar world order, the more the rest of the world fights back. As the launch of its Yuan/Gold-settled oil futures loomsChina is escalating its de-dollarization scheme further by seeking a bilateral rial-yuan agreement with Iran.

As a reminder, nothing lasts forever… Continue reading

Maduro to Create Venezuelan Cryptocurrency ‘To Overcome the Financial Blockade’

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro / Getty Images

 

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro wants his own version of Bitcoin, announcing Sunday that his socialist government will create a cryptocurrency.

Maduro said on his television show that the new “petrocurrency” will be backed by reserves in oil, gas, gold, and diamonds, Bloomberg reports. Bitcoin, the world’s largest digital currency, hit new highs last week, and Maduro declared that his plan will counteract the economic disaster that is befalling the Venezuelan bolivar, which has experienced hyperinflation as the country’s economy has collapsed. Continue reading

Denmark Central Warns Next Financial Crisis is Coming

 

The Danish Central Bank has come out to warn that there is another financial crisis ahead. The central bank identified several indicators that point to growing risks from its analysis perspective. It is recommending that the banks in Denmark begin to raise their capital risk buffer. Continue reading

Goldman Warns That Market Valuations Are at Their Highest Since 1900

 

  • Returns likely to be lower across all assets in medium term
  • Risk scenario sees inflation jump that ushers ‘fast pain’

A prolonged bull market across stocks, bonds and credit has left a measure of average valuation at the highest since 1900, a condition that at some point is going to translate into pain for investors, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Continue reading

The Fed’s Built a Financial “Maginot Line”

 

Over the coming months, I believe we could see an economic meltdown at least six times the size of the 2007 subprime mortgage meltdown. That’s right: I believe we could see an economic meltdown at least six times the size of the 2007 subprime mortgage meltdown

Circumstances lead me to believe it could play out like the meltdown I experienced in 1998 after Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) failed.

This time, however, there will be several crucial differences that will leave investors and regulators unprepared.

In the national defense community, military commanders are known for fighting the last war. They study their prior failures in preparation for the next conflict. The problem is that each war inevitably involves new tactics for which they’re completely unprepared.

Continue reading

Bank of America: Flash Crash in 2018, War to Follow

 

In its analysis for the first half of 2018, Bank of America is warning investors of a “flash crash” the likes of 1987, 1994, 1998. And  it warns that the central bank policies that have created the current conditions can’t be reversed, leading to an inevitable war to follow the crash.

In 1987, known as “Black Monday,” global stock markets lost huge portions of their valuations, ranging from 60 percent in New Zealand to 23 percent in the U.S. In 1994, the Great Bond Massacre saw global bond markets collapse, starting in the U.S. and Japan, resulting in treasury rates skyrocketing through the first nine months of the year.

Continue reading

EU Plan Lets Banks Take Deposits in Crisis

The European Central Bank has unveiled a new set of banking plans that will allow failing banks to freeze their deposits in the event of an economic catastrophe to prevent further bank failures.

 

The European Central Bank has unveiled a new set of banking plans that will allow failing banks to freeze their deposits in the event of an economic catastrophe to prevent further bank failures. Continue reading

Here Is The IMF’s Global Financial Crash Scenario

 

Hidden almost all the way in the end of the first chapter of the IMF’s latest Financial Stability Report, is a surprisingly candid discussion on the topic of whether “Rising Medium-Term Vulnerabilities Could Derail the Global Recovery”, which is a politically correct way of saying is the financial system on the verge of crashing.

In the section also called “Global Financial Dislocation Scenario” because “crash” sounds just a little too pedestrian, the IMF uses a DSGE model to project the current global financial sitution, and ominously admits that “concerns about a continuing buildup in debt loads and overstretched asset valuations could have global economic repercussions” and – in modeling out the next crash, pardon “dislocation” – the IMF conducts a “scenario analysis” to illustrate how a repricing of risks could “lead to a rise in credit spreads and a fall in capital market and housing prices, derailing the economic recovery and undermining financial stability.” Continue reading

Schäuble Warns of Coming Economic Crisis

 

In his farewell interview for the Financial Times, Federal Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble warned of a new global financial crisis predicated upon the Quantity of Money theory that the central banks had pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system that is creating a risk of “new bubbles”.  Indeed, many just do not comprehend what is going on and are blaming the new highs in share markets on concerns about the increased risks from the accumulation of more and more liquidity and the growth of public and private debt. Continue reading

Federal Reserve Is Out of Tools During the Next Recession, Warns Peter Schiff

Thanks to years of easy money policies, veteran market forecaster Peter Schiff thinks the Federal Reserve will be out of options to rescue the economy and stock market during the next downturn.

That’s the assessment from Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital.

Continue reading

Dutch Central Bank Warns Of Market Calm Before The Storm

 

With one foot out of the door of Germany’s finance ministry, the former head of the German economy, Wolfgang Schäuble, 75, delivered a fire and brimstone warning over the weekend, telling the FT in an interview that there was a danger of “new bubbles” forming due to the trillions of dollars that central banks have pumped into markets. Schäuble also warned of risks to stability in the eurozone, particularly those posed by bank balance sheets burdened by the post-crisis legacy of non-performing loans, something we warned about since 2012, and an issue which remains largely unresolved.

Taking a broad swipe at the current financial regime – which he helped design – Schauble warned that the world was in danger of “encouraging new bubbles to form”. Continue reading

Asset prices are high across the board. Is it time to worry?

 

With ultra-loose monetary policy coming to an end, it is best to tread carefully

IN HIS classic, “The Intelligent Investor”, first published in 1949, Benjamin Graham, a Wall Street sage, distilled what he called his secret of sound investment into three words: “margin of safety”. The price paid for a stock or a bond should allow for human error, bad luck or, indeed, many things going wrong at once. In a troubled world of trade tiffs and nuclear braggadocio, such advice should be especially worth heeding. Yet rarely have so many asset classes—from stocks to bonds to property to bitcoins—exhibited such a sense of invulnerability. Continue reading

Will China take over US as the top Superpower

 

QUESTION: I read a credible theory recently about China taking over US as the top superpower via economic pressures. Namely by replacing the US dollar with the Yuan as the standard currency for international trade. This shift is (supposedly) being enacted through 1) increased control over Developing countries through international lending from the New Development Bank, 2) increasing control over global oil via financial ties to Saudi Aramco and Russia’s Rosneft, 3) trying to denominate global oil transactions in Yuan through the Shanghai oil futures market & backing up the Yuan value with the massive gold reserves China has been accumulating.

My question is whether you see this strategy unfolding as a credible threat to usurping United States’ global domination by China and if so – what might the investment world look like during such a massive upheaval? Continue reading