Turkey Will Be Ground Zero in the Next Global Debt Crisis



Turkey is a beautiful country with a rich history including Greek, Roman and Muslim influences that make it one of the most fascinating places on Earth. It is literally a bridge between East and West: The mile-long Bosporus Bridge just north of Istanbul connects Europe and Asia across the Bosporus Strait.

Turkey has been a magnet for direct foreign investment from abroad and dollar-denominated loans by international banks to local enterprises. This investment enthusiasm is understandable given Turkey’s well-educated population of 83 million and its rank as the 17th-largest economy in the world, with a GDP of just under $1 trillion. Continue reading

Goldman’s Shocking Capitulation: The Buy-The-Dip Era Is Dead, “This Is A Genuine Regime Change”

Earlier today, we were delighted to report that after the biggest vol explosion in history, the world’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater, went from urging traders to go all in as recently as January 23, to warning that a “bigger shakeout is coming.”

It turns out that Ray Dalio wasn’t the only fund to urge its broader client universe – and anyone else who cared to listen – to do one thing, while telling a select group of clients to do the opposite. As we noted on Saturday, in his latest Weekly Kickstat published on Friday, Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin essentially told clients to BTFD, suggesting that the correction was likely almost over, based on historical patterns. Continue reading

Trader Who Called Last Week’s ‘Volocaust’ Says “This Is Just An Appetizer”


Professionals investors are still digesting the implications of last week’s explosion of volatility, while some retail traders are struggling to cope with the loss of years’ worth of work.

Meanwhile, one man, who was fortunate enough to have his warnings about the possibility of an explosion of volatility triggered by a dangerously large short-gamma positioning in markets documented by the New York Times, is sitting pretty as his illustration of the risks associated with the market’s dangerous sense of calm have proven to be almost eerily correct. 

Ironically, Cole doesn’t see it that way. So he joined Erik Townsend during a special “postgame” session of Townsend’s weekly MacroVoices podcast to offer his two cents on the crash, what caused it, and what he expects will happen next. Continue reading

Has the FBI become the Praetorian Guard?


COMMENT: Hey Marty, if it’s true that the FBI formed a “Secret Society” to eliminate Trump in the 2016 elections isn’t this similar to the Praetorian Guard picking Emperor?  The Elite Police/Military choose our leader.  So in other words, the USA’s downward spiral has been sent in decided motion and we have begun our descent.  I can’t believe people aren’t outraged.

REPLY: The next step is to auction off the office of president to the highest bidder whoever promises the bureaucrats the most money for their pensions. Continue reading

Automatic Job Storm Coming


Almost every weekday, some arm of the US government issues some sort of economic statistic. News media and financial analysts review and report it. Then 99.9% of the adult population, and probably 90% of the financial industry, forget all about it. And they’re probably right to do so.

The monthly jobs report isn’t like that. Yes, any single month doesn’t tell us much. Yes, the Labor Department’s methodology has some flaws, both major and minor. But imperfect as it is, the jobs report is our best look at the economy’s pulse. Jobs matter in a visceral way to almost all of us, as you know well if you’ve ever lost one. Almost any survey that asked questions around employment would reveal the angst that many Americans feel about the possibility of losing their jobs.

Right now, automation tops the list of things that might threaten our jobs. Artificial intelligence and robotics technology are rapidly learning to do what human workers do, but better, faster, and cheaper. Continue reading

De-Dollarization Continues: China, Iran To Eliminate Greenback From Bilateral Trade


The more Washington lashes out in anger at those who will not bow to the unipolar world order, the more the rest of the world fights back. As the launch of its Yuan/Gold-settled oil futures loomsChina is escalating its de-dollarization scheme further by seeking a bilateral rial-yuan agreement with Iran.

As a reminder, nothing lasts forever… Continue reading

Maduro to Create Venezuelan Cryptocurrency ‘To Overcome the Financial Blockade’

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro / Getty Images


Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro wants his own version of Bitcoin, announcing Sunday that his socialist government will create a cryptocurrency.

Maduro said on his television show that the new “petrocurrency” will be backed by reserves in oil, gas, gold, and diamonds, Bloomberg reports. Bitcoin, the world’s largest digital currency, hit new highs last week, and Maduro declared that his plan will counteract the economic disaster that is befalling the Venezuelan bolivar, which has experienced hyperinflation as the country’s economy has collapsed. Continue reading

Denmark Central Warns Next Financial Crisis is Coming


The Danish Central Bank has come out to warn that there is another financial crisis ahead. The central bank identified several indicators that point to growing risks from its analysis perspective. It is recommending that the banks in Denmark begin to raise their capital risk buffer. Continue reading

Goldman Warns That Market Valuations Are at Their Highest Since 1900


  • Returns likely to be lower across all assets in medium term
  • Risk scenario sees inflation jump that ushers ‘fast pain’

A prolonged bull market across stocks, bonds and credit has left a measure of average valuation at the highest since 1900, a condition that at some point is going to translate into pain for investors, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Continue reading

The Fed’s Built a Financial “Maginot Line”


Over the coming months, I believe we could see an economic meltdown at least six times the size of the 2007 subprime mortgage meltdown. That’s right: I believe we could see an economic meltdown at least six times the size of the 2007 subprime mortgage meltdown

Circumstances lead me to believe it could play out like the meltdown I experienced in 1998 after Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) failed.

This time, however, there will be several crucial differences that will leave investors and regulators unprepared.

In the national defense community, military commanders are known for fighting the last war. They study their prior failures in preparation for the next conflict. The problem is that each war inevitably involves new tactics for which they’re completely unprepared.

Continue reading

Bank of America: Flash Crash in 2018, War to Follow


In its analysis for the first half of 2018, Bank of America is warning investors of a “flash crash” the likes of 1987, 1994, 1998. And  it warns that the central bank policies that have created the current conditions can’t be reversed, leading to an inevitable war to follow the crash.

In 1987, known as “Black Monday,” global stock markets lost huge portions of their valuations, ranging from 60 percent in New Zealand to 23 percent in the U.S. In 1994, the Great Bond Massacre saw global bond markets collapse, starting in the U.S. and Japan, resulting in treasury rates skyrocketing through the first nine months of the year.

Continue reading

EU Plan Lets Banks Take Deposits in Crisis

The European Central Bank has unveiled a new set of banking plans that will allow failing banks to freeze their deposits in the event of an economic catastrophe to prevent further bank failures.


The European Central Bank has unveiled a new set of banking plans that will allow failing banks to freeze their deposits in the event of an economic catastrophe to prevent further bank failures. Continue reading

Here Is The IMF’s Global Financial Crash Scenario


Hidden almost all the way in the end of the first chapter of the IMF’s latest Financial Stability Report, is a surprisingly candid discussion on the topic of whether “Rising Medium-Term Vulnerabilities Could Derail the Global Recovery”, which is a politically correct way of saying is the financial system on the verge of crashing.

In the section also called “Global Financial Dislocation Scenario” because “crash” sounds just a little too pedestrian, the IMF uses a DSGE model to project the current global financial sitution, and ominously admits that “concerns about a continuing buildup in debt loads and overstretched asset valuations could have global economic repercussions” and – in modeling out the next crash, pardon “dislocation” – the IMF conducts a “scenario analysis” to illustrate how a repricing of risks could “lead to a rise in credit spreads and a fall in capital market and housing prices, derailing the economic recovery and undermining financial stability.” Continue reading

Schäuble Warns of Coming Economic Crisis


In his farewell interview for the Financial Times, Federal Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble warned of a new global financial crisis predicated upon the Quantity of Money theory that the central banks had pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system that is creating a risk of “new bubbles”.  Indeed, many just do not comprehend what is going on and are blaming the new highs in share markets on concerns about the increased risks from the accumulation of more and more liquidity and the growth of public and private debt. Continue reading