As China’s yuan takes the first steps toward becoming a global reserve currency, Japan offers a lesson on how hard it is to rival the dollar’s supremacy.
The Japanese yen’s share of global reserves reached a record 8.5 percent in 1991 as the nation’s post-War industrial boom made its economy the world’s second-largest. But its economic decline soon resulted in its clout shrinking as the euro gained ground and the greenback re-asserted its dominance. While the yen is still ranked third for trading and fourth for payments, it now accounts for just 4 percent of world reserves, compared with the dollar’s 64 percent and the yuan’s 1 percent. Continue reading
Remember the renminbi billboard sighting in China back in March of 2015? Well, it has officially landed.
On Monday, October 3rd, 2016, a turning point for America begins: The beginning of the end for the global U.S. Dollar hegemony.
China’s yuan, or Renminbi (RMB), will officially join the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket on Saturday, which indicates a step up in the international status of the currency.
- The inclusion is first and foremost recognition of the substantial reform efforts conducted by Chinese monetary authorities.
- “The RMB is already, for a number of years, very much an international currency.
- China has also taken additional measures to allow the inclusion of RMBinto the SDR,” said Jurgen Conrad, head of the Economics Unit at the Asian Development Bank in China.
- Alfred Schipke, the chief China representative of the IMF, thinks that the move’s significance isn’t limited only to the country.
- “[I think] the RMB joining the SDR will indeed be a milestone for China, but also for the international financial system. It, in effect, recognizes the progress that has been made on the reform side in China over the past couple of years,” said Schipke. Continue reading
China’s long-held desire to provide an alternative to the U.S. dollar will get a boost on October 1, when the yuan enters the International Monetary Fund’s basket of reserve currencies, placing it alongside the pound, euro, yen and dollar. The yuan’s ascent is a validation of the importance of the world’s second-biggest economy and the work policy makers have done to allow freer access to the nation’s markets.
Poland has become the first European country to issue government debt into China’s mainland bond market, with a bond of 3 billion yuan ($452 million), marking a significant milestone for renminbi’s growing use internationally, which builds towards its reserve currency status. Continue reading
For the past year, Chinese selling of Treasuries has vexed investors and served as a gauge of the health of the world’s second-largest economy.
The People’s Bank of China, owner of the world’s biggest foreign-exchange reserves, burnt through 20 percent of its war chest since 2014, dumping about $250 billion of U.S. government debt and using the funds to support the yuan and stem capital outflows.
While China’s sales of Treasuries have slowed, its holdings of U.S. equities are now showing steep declines. Continue reading
Analysts pointed out several factors that have driven the yuan down. One of the most important among them is strengthening the dollar on expectations of a referendum of Britain leaving the European Union. The vote will take place on June 23.
Some analysts see the recent step to devaluate the yuan as part of its correction ahead of the possible interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve.
Recently, I told you I was working on a special world currency report, with profit recommendations for a large basket of currencies.
The simplest way to do this is to start with the Big Five. These major currencies serve as the “drivers” for the minor ones. In my upcoming Part 2, I’ll tell you which of the minor currencies (like the Aussie dollar or the Swiss franc) are tied to which of the major ones, how that impacts their direction, and how you can profit.
After a brief hiatus from the ongoing currency wars, China fired another salvo at The Fed tonight by devaluing the Yuan fix to 6.5693 – its weakest against the USD since March 2011. After eight days higher in a row for The USD Index, it seems PBOC has turned its currency liberalization plan off, stabilizing the broad Renminbi basket (which has been steadily devalued) and turning its attention to devaluing against the USD. Having unleashed turmoil in August (pre-Sept FOMC) and January (post Dec rate-hike), it appears the rising rate-hike probabilities jawboned by The Fed are decidedly disagreeable to “authoritative persons” in China. Continue reading
Recent headlines confirm that the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Communication) has suffered multiple cyber attacks. SWIFT is a privately run Belgium-based provider of financial messaging, considered essential to move money around the world. The system is so important that to be denied access to it is essentially to be cut off financially from the rest of the world. That is what happened to Iran in 2012 in conjunction with sanctions and the pain was severe. Many believe that regaining access to SWIFT was the Iranians top priority in negotiations.
It is important to understand that SWIFT is not, at least not directly, controlled by the United States. Rather, it is governed by a multi-nation board. Still, it is viewed to be part of the United States-led global financial community. American sanctions carry tremendous weight. Continue reading
Chinese nationals bought more than $110 billion worth of both residential and commercial real estate over the past five years. Last year’s surge in purchases moved them past Canadians, to become the largest group of foreign buyers of US homes, according to a study from the Asia Society and Rosen Consulting Group.
Over the past five years, the desire of Chinese nationals to find safe offshore assets helped the US real estate market recover from the 2008 economic crisis. Continue reading
Note for our readers : Following our monetary research work under the form of a surveillance of several months, our team is worried again about the US dollar. After a calming two year time, the dollar is heckled again within today’s new multi monetary world. Surprised by the conclusions of its own analyses, presented here below exclusively to you, our team of experts wishes to warn you, the GEAB readers, about the possible danger threatening the dollar. 2016 could very well be the year when the dollar wall will fall…
To explain the current financial turmoil, all official accusing fingers are pointing to a single guilty party: China, the ideal guilty player, the same way Greece and the euro currency were at their time. It is true that evidence seems to be on the side of those accusing fingers, due to the recently unstable Shanghai stock market and its low values. Continue reading
There are a lot of conflicting forces expected to impact currency markets this week. The first was the meeting of oil-producing nations in Doha that analysts believe ended in failure. Beforehand, there was talk of a production cut that would have supported oil prices. Instead, there was no agreement and oil prices fell immediately. If oil weakness holds, the dollar should strengthen reflexively. Amazingly, however, that may not be the largest story of the week.
There is a rumor that China is planning to move on the dollar on the 19th, supported by Russia. There have been similar rumors with date-certain outcomes that came and went without incident. This one could be similar. Continue reading
Donald Trump has gained a lot of airtime recently talking about how China has been ripping off the United States over the previous decades, artificially devaluing the yuan and protecting China’s own companies at the expense of ours, stealing our technology, and attacking our infrastructure via cyber intrusion. All of that gives one the sneaking suspicion that China is preparing for something, something bad, something devastating for the United States and our children’s future. Chinese actions in the South China Sea adds to this perception, this gut feeling. Why would the communists be building military bases out of nothing so far from home? There really is only one conclusion. Although the China apologists want to dismiss this narrative, taunting its proponents about their tinfoil hats, that uneasy feeling remains vibrant, just the same.
When China reported its economic data dump last night which was modestly better than expected (one has to marvel at China’s phenomenal ability to calculate its GDP just two weeks after the quarter ended – not even the Bureau of Economic Analysis is that fast), the investing community could finally exhale: after all, the biggest source of “global” instability for the Fed appears to have been neutralized. Continue reading
The US Dollar has traded within a relatively “stable” band against the offshore Yuan for much of the last six weeks…
But when compared to the collapse of the Yuan “basket” – as PBOC devalued against the rest of the major trading partners – the ‘stealth’ devaluation is obvious… Continue reading