Bond crash across the world as deflation trade goes horribly wrong

Markets ignored clear warnings in Europe and America that the money supply is catching fire, signalling a surge of inflation later this year

The global deflation trade is unwinding with a vengeance. Yields on 10-year Bunds blew through 1pc today, spearheading a violent repricing of credit across the world.

The scale is starting to match the ‘taper tantrum’ of mid-2013 when the US Federal Reserve issued its first gentle warning that quantitative easing would not last forever, and that the long-feared inflexion point was nearing in the international monetary cycle.

Paper losses over the last three months have reached $1.2 trillion. Yields have jumped by 175 basis points in Indonesia, 160 in South Africa, 150 in Turkey, 130 in Mexico, and 80 in Australia.

Greece: Greenspan predicts exit from euro inevitable

Earlier, UK Chancellor George Osborne said a Greek exit would cause “deep ructions” for Britain.

Mr Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, said: “I believe [Greece] will eventually leave. I don’t think it helps them or the rest of the eurozone – it is just a matter of time before everyone recognises that parting is the best strategy.

“The problem is that there there is no way that I can conceive of the euro of continuing, unless and until all of the members of eurozone become politically integrated – actually even just fiscally integrated won’t do it.”

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Alan Greenspan has long been a critic of the European single currency. Now, the 88-year-old former chairman of the US Federal Reserve has repeated a claim that nothing short of full political union – a United States of Europe – can save the euro from extinction.

Bigger ECB asset-buying expansion planned

The much-awaited expansion of the European Central Bank’s asset-buying, or quantitative easing (QE), program will be larger-scale than expected, according to Royal Bank of Scotland, which says the objective now is to head off mounting deflationary pressures in the euro zone.

RBS, in a research paper published this week, says the ECB will expand its balance sheet from €2.2 trillion ($3.2 trillion) now to €4.5 trillion, and not the €3.1 trillion previously envisaged. This suggests a further €2.3 trillion of bond purchases, which is more than twice the amount so far mentioned by ECB officials.

Swiss vote provokes ‘6,000-year gold bubble’ attack

‘Save Our Swiss Gold’ referendum is a primordial scream against a world of quantitative easing but would paralyze the Swiss National bank

Five million Swiss voters will decide on Sunday whether to force the Swiss National Bank to repatriate all its gold from vaults in Britain and Canada, boost its holdings of bullion to 20pc of foreign reserves and then keep the metal forever.

Aussie under pressure amid new currency war

The Australian dollar came under renewed selling pressure on Tuesday as the consolidation of global imbalances continues to fuel a rally in its US counterpart.

The Aussie dropped briefly to touch a four-year low around  $US86.5 cents on weak trade data and an upward revision in unemployment, before recovering to around $US86.9 cents as the market took heart from strong retail sales figures.

However, the main driver of more general weakness is a new surge in the US dollar, spurred by another bout of extreme monetary easing by the Bank of Japan.

The BoJ on Friday caught markets off-guard by announcing a larger-than-expected boost to it quantitative easing program, less than 48 hours after the US Federal Reserve confirmed a halt to its own six-year stimulus scheme.

World economy so damaged it may need permanent QE

Markets are realising that the five-and-a-half year recovery since the financial crisis may already be over, says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Combined tightening by the United States and China has done its worst. Global liquidity is evaporating.

What looked liked a gentle tap on the brakes by the two monetary superpowers has proved too much for a fragile world economy, still locked in “secular stagnation”. The latest investor survey by Bank of America shows that fund managers no longer believe the European Central Bank will step into the breach with quantitative easing of its own, at least on a worthwhile scale.

Markets are suddenly prey to the disturbing thought that the five-and-a-half year expansion since the Lehman crisis may already be over, before Europe has regained its prior level of output. That is the chief reason why the price of Brent crude has crashed by 25pc since June. It is why yields on 10-year US Treasuries have fallen to 1.96pc, and why German Bunds are pricing in perma-slump at historic lows of 0.81pc this week.

We will find out soon whether or not this a replay of 1937 when the authorities drained stimulus too early, and set off the second leg of the Great Depression.

BIS warns on ‘violent’ reversal of global markets

The global financial markets are dangerously stretched and may unwind with shock force as liquidity dries up, the Bank of International Settlements has warned.

Guy Debelle, head of the BIS’s market committee, said investors have become far too complacent, wrongly believing that central banks can protect them, many staking bets that are bound to “blow up” as the first sign of stress.

In a speech in Sydney, Mr Debelle said: “The sell-off, particularly in fixed income, could be relatively violent when it comes. There are a number of investors buying assets on the presumption of a level of liquidity which is not there. This is not evident when positions are being put on, but will become readily apparent when investors attempt to exit their positions.

“The exits tend to get jammed unexpectedly and rapidly.”

China wants to overtake US in gold reserves: Greenspan

Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, said China is increasing its gold reserves in an attempt to surpass the United States as the holder of the most monetary gold in the world. However, the US economist also said the country will not be able to maintain its rapid economic development due to a lack of innovation.

Market report: Citi warns of geopolitical tremors

Investors’ “indifference” to the threats “is unlikely to last”, the US bank has warned

On what was the worst day for the FTSE 100 since March, Citigroup sounded an ominous warning for investors.

Geopolitical risks, including the rise of jihadist extremists in the Middle East and simmering tensions between Russia and the West, are “proliferating”, said analysts at the US bank, while investors’ “indifference” to the threats “is unlikely to last”.

Citi’s timing was apt. Geopolitical factors helped to drive the 97.55-point fall to 6,676.08 suffered by London’s benchmark index, with brokers citing the air strikes in Syria by the US and its allies as a reason for the sell-off, as well as the downing of a Syrian fighter jet by Israel.

“Federal Reserve and Other Central Banks Own Close to Half of All Stock Markets”

These links reveal that the US Federal Reserve Board and other central banks around the world own “close to half of all [the] stock markets.” The title of this post is the title of the first link. Please re-read the first sentence and let it sink in to grasp the meaning of this shocking revelation. I think most citizen-investors around the world assumed that all stocks were owned by private investors, sovereign investment funds, pension funds, mutual funds, etc. Not true! The first three links reveal that vast amounts of stock equities are owned by the US Federal Reserve Board and other central banks! The Fed and the central banks have surely been buying these stock funds with fantasy money, money created by the central banks “out of thin air.” If a private investor tried to do that, it would be called “counterfeiting.”

Bank for International Settlements warns low interest rate policies may generate next global financial crisis

The international body representing central banks is warning its members that record low interest rates are generating conditions for another global financial crisis that may be worse than the first.

In its annual report, the Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS) expressed serious concern that global share markets had reached new highs and the interest rate premium for many risky loans had fallen.

“Overall, it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally,” the bank wrote.

Steve Forbes: Link dollar to gold or face Great Depression II

 

Influential financial publisher and former presidential candidate Steve Forbes is out with a new warning that the U.S. faces an economic catastrophe due to the Federal Reserve’s loose dollar policy, and returning to a strict “gold standard” is the only way to avoid disaster.

In Money: How the Destruction of the Dollar Threatens the Global Economy — and What We Can Do About It, Forbes blames President Obama’s money team for the stagnant economy, high prices, declining mobility and big government.

“[The Fed’s] vastly misguided monetary policies are now setting the stage for a new economic and social catastrophe — one that could rival the financial crisis and horrors of the 1930s,” he wrote in the book co-authored by Elizabeth Ames.

Wall Street concerned over China’s gold hoarding

Leung Hai-ming told the portal that China’s central bank took advantage of the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program in 2013, when the price of gold fell by 27%. The bank bought in over 1,000 tonnes of gold, representing almost one third of the world’s 3,756 tonnes last year.

There is reportedly less than 180,000 tonnes of gold reserves left, and only 20% of that remaining gold is tradable. This means that the People’s Bank of China will likely keep hold of the gold, limiting the gold trading volume — a concern for both the US government and Wall Street traders.

US Economy Is A House Of Cards — Paul Craig Roberts

The US economy is a house of cards. Every aspect of it is fraudulent, and the illusion of recovery is created with fraudulent statistics.

American capitalism itself is an illusion. All financial markets are rigged. Massive liquidity poured into financial markets by the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing inflates stock and bond prices and drives interest rates, which are supposed to be a measure of the cost of capital, to zero or negative, with the implication that capital is so abundant that its cost is zero and can be had for free. Large enterprises, such as mega-banks and auto manufacturers, that go bankrupt are not permitted to fail. Instead, public debt and money creation are used to cover private losses and keep corporations “too big to fail” afloat at the expense not of shareholders but of people who do not own the shares of the corporations.

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Capitalism has been transformed by powerful private interests whose control over governments, courts, and regulatory agencies has turned capitalism into a looting mechanism. Wall Street no longer performs any positive function. Wall Street is a looting mechanism, a deadweight loss to society. Wall Street makes profits by front-running trades with fast computers, by selling fraudulent financial instruments that it is betting against as investment grade securities, by leveraging equity to unprecedented heights, making bets that cannot be covered, and by rigging all commodity markets.

Global banks issue alerts on China carry trade as Fed tightens and yuan falls

Three of the world’s largest banks have warned that the flood of “hot money” into China is at risk of sudden reversal as the yuan weakens and the US Federal Reserve brings forward plans to raise interest rates, with major implications for global finance.

A new report by Citigroup told clients to brace for a second phase of the “taper tantrum” that rocked emerging markets last year, but this time with China at the eye of the storm.

“There’s a dangerous scenario in which the combination of rising US short-term rates and a more volatile RMB (yuan) could lead to a rather large capital outflow from China,” said the report, by Guillermo Mondino and David Lubin.