Ukraine: Is Russia Planning A New Invasion?

Pictured: A Russian-backed rebel observing Ukrainian army positions near Donetsk, Eastern Ukraine, May 17, 2015. (Image source: Mstyslav Chernov/Wikimedia Commons)

 

  • Russia’s aggression into Ukraine came in direct violation of its obligations under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
  • “After four years of war, Russia has at least 260,000 troops deployed along the Ukrainian border,” ready to advance. — Oleksandr Turchynov, Chairman of Ukraine’s National Defense and Security Council, April 13, 2018.
  • The First Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Security Service, Viktor Kononenko, recently reported that Russia might be planning another attempt to destabilize Ukraine in the fall “under the pretext of protecting the Russian-speaking population”.

This April marks the fourth year of the ongoing war in Ukraine between the Ukrainian military and Russian backed separatists in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics in eastern Ukraine, also known as the Donbas region. Prior to the beginning of the war in eastern Ukraine in April 2014, Russia annexed Crimea.

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Russian Military Forces Staging Near Ukraine

Remember, although not guaranteed, August is the month of war.

 

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Russian T-80 tanks take part in a tactical military exercise in Armenia / AP

 

EUCOM: ‘Extremely concerned’ by regional tensions

The Pentagon has identified eight staging areas in Russia where large numbers of military forces appear to be preparing for incursions into Ukraine, according to U.S. defense officials.

As many as 40,000 Russian troops, including tanks, armored vehicles, and air force units, are now arrayed along Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia.

Additionally, large numbers of Russian military forces will conduct exercises in the coming days that Pentagon officials say could be used as cover for an attack on Ukraine. Continue reading

Report: Russia Building Military Base Near Border With Ukraine

Russia is in the process of building a military base close to its border with Ukraine, according to a report Tuesday.

Reuters reported:

A Reuters reporter who visited the Russian town of Klintsy, about 50 km (30 miles) from Ukraine, saw a makeshift army camp, large numbers of newly-arrived servicemen and military vehicles. Two soldiers in camouflage gear who were manning a checkpoint in a forest turned the reporter away, saying they were guarding a “special military site.” Last year, Reuters also reported on construction of two other bases further to the south on Russia’s border with Ukraine. The defense ministry has not acknowledged the deployment of troops to Klintsy, which usually serves as a stop for truck drivers traveling between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Continue reading

Russian Military Base Constructed Near Ukraine Indicates Preparation for Long-Term Conflict

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Pro-Russian rebel military vehicles convoy move towards Donetsk , Eastern Ukraine, Monday, Nov. 10 / AP

 

Russia is building a large, heavily equipped military base near the Ukrainian border, which indicates Moscow is preparing for a long-term conflict with Kiev. Continue reading

Heavy armour rolls in: Now convoy of Russian tanks arrive by rail at border with Ukraine days after military trucks and rocket launchers were spotted nearby

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  • Nine tanks arrived in southern Russian town of Matveev Kurgan on Monday
  • Mobile phone snaps show them arriving on the back of a freight train
  • Town is just 17 miles from Ukrainian border, where battles continue

A freight train pictured carrying a convoy tanks towards the Ukrainian border looks to escalate tensions between the two sides even further.

The nine tanks arrived in the southern town of Matveev Kurgan on Monday, before being driven along the streets on Tuesday.

The picture, taken on a mobile phone, comes just days after a huge convoy, including rocket launchers, military trucks without licence plates and armoured personnel carriers, was photographed driving along a road near the town. Continue reading

Dangerous Propaganda

BERLIN/WASHINGTON (Own report) – The German news magazine “Der Spiegel” reported in its latest edition that the German chancellery is accusing NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Philip Breedlove, of making “dangerous propaganda.” According to the German government, Breedlove is completely exaggerating Russia’s military activities in Eastern Ukraine. He claims having detected Russian military equipment, including tanks and air defense systems in Ukraine. Germany’s foreign intelligence agency BND, however, could neither detect these in their own satellite imagery nor acquire adequate information from its allied US intelligence services. Breedlove has also completely exaggerated the number of Russian troops at the Ukrainian border. However, the German government has also repeatedly used this type of propaganda, for example during the aggression against Yugoslavia in 1999. The German government’s criticism of Breedlove, reported by “Der Spiegel,” reflects the strategic differences between Washington and Berlin. Germany’s “dual strategy” approach toward Russia, taken from the West’s cold war strategy, is incompatible with the policy of unbridled aggression, championed by the war hawk wing of the US establishment. Breedlove, who is now being criticized by Germany, is a representative of this group.

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Vladimir Putin orders Russian troops onto ‘combat alert’ as Ukraine fighting spills across border

Tensions between Moscow and Kiev continue to mount with Vladimir Putin’s latest show of force as Russia dismisses Petro Poroshenko’s “peace plan” as an ultimatum

Vladimir Putin has ordered troops in central Russia onto “combat alert” in snap military drills a day after confirming the country is beefing up its presence on the Ukrainian border.

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Russian and Ukrainian armies shaping up for initial military clash over Slavyansk

Russia and Ukraine were heading Sunday, April 27, for their first battle over the rebel-held flashpoint town of Slavyansk, debkafile’s military and US sources report. The outcome will determine who controls the Donetsk region and possibly all of East of Ukraine – the separatists or the provisional government in Kiev.

With a superior, professional and well-trained force armed with a preponderance of fire power, the Kremlin has several options to choose from for this engagement:

1. To order the 11,000 troops, based at Rostov on Don 40 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, to cross over and head for Slavyansk and Donetsk.

2.  To send a tank column against the 15,000 Ukrainian troops deployed over the weekend around Slavyansk. According to Russian sources, the force from Kiev is armed with 160 tanks, 230 armored personnel carriers and 150 pieces of artillery and missiles. Continue reading

WATCH OUT: Russian troops mass for Ukraine invasion

RUSSIAN troops on the Ukraine border could be preparing to invade, it was claimed last night.

The warning came as 65,000 soldiers appeared to be at battle stations, heightening fears they were about to launch assaults on cities including Odessa and the capital Kiev. Continue reading

Russian army ordered to advance toward Ukraine border. Moscow questions May election’s legitimacy

Thursday, April 24, saw a steep escalation of tensions between Moscow and Kiev after the Ukrainian army killed up to five pro-Russian militiamen in an attack on three checkpoints outside the eastern town of Slavyansk. President Vladimir Putin threatened “consequences.” He added that the legitimacy of the May 25 elections was in serious question. Defense Minister Gen. Sergey Shoigu ordered the Russian army to start drills at Rostov on Don near the Ukraine border.

debkafile’s military sources report that this order amounted to a state of alert, which required the troops to close their distance to the Ukraine border and take up prepared positions as bridgeheads for entering East Ukraine when the order is given. Continue reading

Federation uniting former Soviet republic is only way to end crisis in Ukraine, Russia says

Russia on Sunday set out demands for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis in Ukraine, saying the former Soviet republic should be unified in a federation allowing wide autonomy to its various regions as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in Paris in another bid to calm tensions.

After a brief call on French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, Kerry sat down with Lavrov at the residence of the Russian ambassador to France to go over Moscow’s response to a U.S. plan to de-escalate the situation as Russian troops continue to mass along the Ukrainian border. Continue reading

Crimea crisis: Nato commander calls for allies to mobilise after Russia prepares ‘incredible force’ on Ukrainian border

Nato’s top military commander has warned that Russia is building an “incredible force” on its border with Ukraine, and said the time has come for Western allies to move its own troops to the east.

There are growing fears that President Vladimir Putin may be preparing to follow up the annexation of Crimea with a move into Moldova’s mainly Russian-speaking separatist Transdniestria.

US Air Force General Philip Breedlove, Nato’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said Russia had used “snap” military exercises apparently as a tactic to shift vast numbers of troops towards the border. Continue reading