U.S. Foreign Policy on the Rocks

The tribunal that has taken jurisdiction over the Philippine suit against China concerning islands and rocks in the South China Sea (“SCS”) is to issue its decision on the merits on July 12, 2016. However well-reasoned the award, it cannot undo the damage caused by the litigation. The Philippines will remain unable to force China to modify its positions. China will ignore the award. And the US will be forced to continue to expand freedom of navigation exercises and other measures to push back against China’s conduct.