Thanks to years of easy money policies, veteran market forecaster Peter Schiff thinks the Federal Reserve will be out of options to rescue the economy and stock market during the next downturn.
That’s the assessment from Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital.
With ultra-loose monetary policy coming to an end, it is best to tread carefully
IN HIS classic, “The Intelligent Investor”, first published in 1949, Benjamin Graham, a Wall Street sage, distilled what he called his secret of sound investment into three words: “margin of safety”. The price paid for a stock or a bond should allow for human error, bad luck or, indeed, many things going wrong at once. In a troubled world of trade tiffs and nuclear braggadocio, such advice should be especially worth heeding. Yet rarely have so many asset classes—from stocks to bonds to property to bitcoins—exhibited such a sense of invulnerability. Continue reading
Do the Wall Street Journal’s editorial page editors read their own newspaper?
The frontpage headline story for the Labor Day weekend was “Low Wage Growth Challenges Fed.” Despite an alleged 4.4% unemployment rate, which is full employment, there is no real growth in wages. The front page story pointed out correctly that an economy alleged to be expanding at full employment, but absent any wage growth or inflation, is “a puzzle that complicates Federal Reserve policy decisions.” Continue reading
QUESTION: Hello Mr Armstrong
I have not forgotten when I saw the reportage about you on TV when you announced that in October 2015 will start the big economic collapse. do you think that that date was bit early or really there is some thing happened?
Somebody exploded an H-bomb last week, and it wasn’t North Korea. It was the U.S.
This was not a kinetic H-bomb, the kind that leaves a mushroom cloud.
It was a financial H-bomb. Continue reading
Donald Trump has the opportunity to appoint a higher percentage of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve system at one time than any president since Woodrow Wilson.
President Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act during the creation of the Fed in 1913 when they had a vacant board. At that time, the law said the secretary of the Treasury and the comptroller of the currency were automatically on the Fed’s board of governors. But besides that, President Wilson selected all five of the other participating members.
Now Trump has the opportunity to fill more seats on the Fed’s Board of Governors than any president since then.
I’ve just wrapped up a long trip to Japan. And I’ve taken away one lesson from all of my conversations, speeches and research: The rise of nationalism in the U.S. will cause massive shifts in global trade alliances.
One of the main beneficiaries will be Japan. Now, Japan might not be on your radar, day-to-day, but it’s about to play a very important role in the world of Donald Trump.
Here’s what I mean… Continue reading
Though stock markets in general are meaningless and indicate nothing in terms of the health of the economy they still function as a form of hypnosis, or a kind of Pavlovian mechanism; a tool that central bankers can use to keep a population servile and salivating at the ring of a bell. As I have mentioned in the past, the only two elements of the economy that the average person pays attention to in the slightest are the unemployment rate and the Dow. As long as the first is down and the second is up, they aren’t going to take a second look at the health of our financial system. Continue reading
Germany’s central bank is the Bundesbank. Prior to the commencement of trading of the euro in January 1999, the Bundesbank conducted Germany’s monetary policy. The Bundesbank has a reputation for pursuing general price-level stability above all else. You might say that the Bundesbank has inflation phobia. The reason for this Bundesbank inflation phobia is the remembrance of the hyperinflation Germany experienced between World Wars I and II. Given the US central bank’s recent actions, it would almost seem that the Fed has developed inflation phobia too. Continue reading
Two weeks after BofA’s Michael Hartnett previewed (and timed) not only the “Great Fall” of stocks, but also explained that the Fed and global central banks are now in the business of making the “rich poorer“, he is out with a new note which looks at the Fed’s latest U-turn, which has unleashed the latest market buying spree, warning that “further upside in risk assets will create problems later in the year” (for three reasons he lists out), and concludes that “ultimately, we believe the extremely strong performance by equities and bonds in H1 is very unlikely to be repeated in H2.” Hartnett then goes back to his original thesis that the Fed will no longer pursue its primary mandate of pushing stocks (i.e. wealth effect and confidence) higher because it is “now politically unacceptable for the Fed and any other central bank to stoke a bubble on Wall St.”
As a result, “monetary policy will have to tighten to raise volatility, reduce Wall St inflation, and reduce inequality. There are two ways to cure inequality: you can make the poor richer, or you can make the rich poorer. The Fed will reduce its balance sheet in the hope of making Wall St poorer.“
After building out Merrill’s mortgage trading floor basically from scratch, then moving to the buyside at Pimco, several weeks ago Harley Bassman, more familiar to many traders as the “Convexity Maven” – a legend in the realm of derivatives (he helped design the MOVE Index, better known as the VIX for government bonds) – decided to retire (roughly one year after his shocking suggestion that the Fed should devalue the dollar by buying gold).
But that did not mean he would stop writing, and just a few days after exiting the front door at 650 Newport Center Drive in Newport Beach for the last time, Bassman wrote his first full article as a “free man”, in which the topic was, not surprisingly, derivatives and specifically the recent collapse in vol – and convexity – what prompted it, but most importantly and what everyone wants to know: what threshold would be sufficient to finally launch the next “critical mass” market move (i.e. crash) and, just as importantly, what could catalyze it. Continue reading
Speaking with Bloomberg’s Betty Liu on gold, the geopolitical threat of North Korea and what to expect from the Federal Reserve financial expert Jim Rickards provided what his outlook shows for the months ahead.
The Bloomberg host began by asking Rickards why, with no current inflationary problems seen by most investors, he believed that gold was due for a major boom. The Strategic Intelligence editor started, “The reason in the first half [of the year] about 7.8% against enormous headwinds. The Fed has raised rates in December, March and again in June. [Now] we’re seeing disinflation, a slowing economy, a declining labor force. Everything looks like a recession and yet gold went up almost 8% in that environment. As we go forward, the Fed will always be the last to know.” Continue reading
“This is going to be a national crisis…”
“This” being America’s woefully underfunded pension liabilities, according to Karen Friedman. She’s the executive vice president of the Pension Rights Center.
(A place called the Pension Rights Center does in fact exist. We checked.)
MarketWatch columnist Jeff Reeves howls in confirmation that “collapsing pensions will fuel America’s next financial crisis.”
“This is not a distant concern,” warns he, “but a system already in crisis.” Continue reading
While most asset managers have been growing increasingly skeptical and gloomy in recent weeks (despite a few ideological contrarian holdouts), joining the rising chorus of bank analysts including those of Citi, JPM, BofA and Goldman all urging clients to “go to cash”, none have dared to commit the cardinal sin of actually predicting when the next crash will take place.
On Sunday a prominent hedge fund manager, One River Asset Management’s CIO Eric Peters broke with that tradition and dared to “pin a tail on the donkey” of when the next market crash – one which he agrees with us will be driven by a collapse in the global credit impulse – will take place. His prediction: Valentine’s Day 2018. Continue reading
While many “conventional” indicators of US economic vibrancy and strength have lost their informational and predictive value over the past decade (GDP fluctuates erratically especially in Q1, employment is the lowest this century yet real wage growth is non-existent, inflation remains under the Fed’s target despite its $4.5 trillion balance sheet and so on), one indicator has remained a stubbornly fail-safe marker of economic contraction: since the 1960, every time Commercial & Industrial loan balances have declined (or simply stopped growing), whether due to tighter loan supply or declining demand, a recession was already either in progress or would start soon. Continue reading