Fasten your seatbelts: History’s about to repeat itself

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Over the last decade, I’ve found my opinions coinciding more and more with those of SocGen strategist and “uber-bear” Albert Edwards. Last week he hit the headlines again with a claim that a “gut-wrenching slump” in profits amounts to an almost-certain predictor of recession. While the historic evidence for this is compelling, I’m not so sure this time couldn’t be slightly different — at least in terms of causes and effects. Continue reading

These black swans pose biggest threats to market, says SocGen

 

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — So-called black-swan events are by definition highly improbable. But that hasn’t stopped the economists at Société Générale from attempting to identify a few scenarios that could blindside the market.

In its ‘Global Economic Outlook’ report released on Monday, SocGen listed six such unlikely events that pose the biggest threats. Those include a hard economic landing in China and the possibility of a referendum in the U.K. on whether to remain in the European Union. Continue reading