Joint Russian-Iranian intervention in Syria will allow the government to hold territory and likely expand into Iraq

Key Points

• Russian airstrikes have targeted areas controlled by various opposition factions on the borders of government-held territory in Latakia and Hama but they have focused far less on their stated target of the Islamic State. This coincides with Hizbullah media on 12 October claiming an increase in ground forces being supplied by Iran to support the Syrian government.
• Russia and Iran are jointly expanding their role in Syria and Iraq against the proxies of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, in order to preserve the allied governments in Baghdad and Damascus.
• Saudi Arabia and Turkey are in effect being offered influence in areas of Syria and Iraq that are not strategically important, reducing the likelihood that they would acquiesce to an agreement that is in line with Russia and Iran’s interests.