British govt report suggests US is currently winning trade war with China

 

China has already declared its intent to retaliate against US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports, a move set to raise prices on consumer goods for both countries.

Several analysts have demonstrated how Trump’s tariffs will blowback on the US economy. Moody’s Investment Service previously warned that the tariffs would reduce US GDP by 0.25 percent in 2019, to about 2.3 percent. The American economy could take an even bigger hit if Trump proceeds with tariffs on $200 bn worth of Chinese products, Moody’s warned.

Russell Napier: “Trade War Is The Beginning Of A New Global Monetary System”

A Country Matures, An Exchange Rate Declines

After two weeks on the road visiting clients your analyst returns with a better view of the consensus outlook. There is, though, much in the consensus to disagree with. In particular it seems peculiar that the consensus believes the democratically elected government of Italy, with policies entirely contrary to EU membership, will be put through the bureaucratic meat grinder in Rome and Brussels and turned into EU sausage, in a similar process that minced the political representatives of Greece.

While this might well be the case, it is hard to understand that the grinding destruction of this democracy, even if it is only moderate compared to the Greek experience, can be anything but bad for growth and asset prices in the EU. Disciplining these politicians to abandon their manifesto promises and follow the ways of the EU is highly unlikely to be a painless experience, either for Italy or the rest of the EU. Nonetheless, investors are content to believe that a painless disciplining of Italy’s elected representatives is all but inevitable. We shall see.

Perhaps the most prevailing consensus view is that the recent weakness of the RMB represents a Chinese counter-punch in the trade war with the US. Coming when it does, it is easy to see the accelerated decline of the RMB as a tactical and not a strategic move. Comments by the PBOC on July 3rd have probably reassured many investors that the managed exchange rate regime is not at risk and that the RMB will continue to be managed against a basket of currencies. Your analyst does not agree.

Asia emerges as an economic zone

Source: Bloomberg

 

Asian currencies (Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and China) are now trading in lockstep with the Japanese yen. In large part this is managed: so many Asian countries compete in the same export markets that their central banks try to keep their currencies aligned with each other.

China’s Entrance Into SDR Basket Shifts Global Finance

Remember the renminbi billboard sighting in China back in March of 2015? Well, it has officially landed.

On Monday, October 3rd, 2016, a turning point for America begins: The beginning of the end for the global U.S. Dollar hegemony.

 

China’s yuan, or Renminbi (RMB), will officially join the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket on Saturday, which indicates a step up in the international status of the currency.

• The inclusion is first and foremost recognition of the substantial reform efforts conducted by Chinese monetary authorities.
• “The RMB is already, for a number of years, very much an international currency.
• China has also taken additional measures to allow the inclusion of RMBinto the SDR,” said Jurgen Conrad, head of the Economics Unit at the Asian Development Bank in China.
• Alfred Schipke, the chief China representative of the IMF, thinks that the move’s significance isn’t limited only to the country.
• “[I think] the RMB joining the SDR will indeed be a milestone for China, but also for the international financial system. It, in effect, recognizes the progress that has been made on the reform side in China over the past couple of years,” said Schipke.

Poland first in Europe to issue RMB debt in China

Poland has become the first European country to issue government debt into China’s mainland bond market, with a bond of 3 billion yuan ($452 million), marking a significant milestone for renminbi’s growing use internationally, which builds towards its reserve currency status.

The China Syndrome: The Coming Global Financial Meltdown

The 1979 film The China Syndrome took its name from the darkly humorous notion that a nuclear reactor meltdown in the U.S. would burn straight through the Earth to China. (wikipedia: The China Syndrome)

In today’s world, the financial meltdown in China has burned straight through the global financial system to the U.S. financial markets. The mainstream financial media is delighted to promote the many links between the U.S. and Chinese economies when the two economies are feeding each other’s expansion in a tightly coupled virtuous cycle.

Russell Napier Explains How The Decline Of The Yuan Destroys Belief In Central Banking

From Russell Napier of ERI-C

It’s Not a Pet, It’s a Falcon: How the decline of the RMB destroys belief in central banking and a successful reflation

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

– The Second Coming- W.B. Yeats

First catch your falcon, as the formidable Mrs Beeton might have said if she was in need of a method of catching her main course (see Mrs Beeton’s Book of Household Management 1861- ‘Recipe for Jugged Hare’).

“It’s Coming To A Head In 2016” – Why Bank of America Thinks The Probability Of A Chinese Crisis Is 100%

Some sobering words about China’s imminent crisis, not from your friendly neighborhood doom and gloom village drunk, but from BofA’s China strategist David Cui.

Excerpted from “2016 Year-Ahead: what may trigger financial instability“, a must-read report for anyone interested in learning how China’s epic stock market experiment ends.

China’s Dollar Peg to Wind Down

It seems likely that China’s central bank will reduce its grip on the U.S. dollar.

An editorial on the People’s Bank of China website recently made the case that China should tie the RMB to a basket of currencies rather than to the U.S. dollar. As it stands, China’s currency is pegged to a basket of currencies, but the dollar has appeared to dominate the RMB’s exchange value. China’s foreign exchange system may calculate a RMB exchange rate index against a basket of currencies that gives less weight to the dollar in order to reinforce market forces.

China Actually Has Two Currencies—And It’s Fiddling Around With Both

 

The problem with micromanaging the economy is that things become rather complicated. That’s why China needs two currencies, one for the mainland, one for international banks. Since the devaluation on August 11, it seems China is losing control of both.

The Renminbi (RMB) or yuan is used within mainland China and can be exchanged for other currencies very restrictively. It is primarily used in trade but also for tightly regulated inbound and outbound investments.

There is no real market for this exchange rate, instead the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) comes up with a fix every day and then trades around it.

Washington, China, and the Rise of the Renminbi: Are the Dollar’s Days as the Global Reserve Currency Numbered?

Abstract

The U.S. dollar has dominated the international monetary system since the end of World War II. While the U.S. economy has generated weak growth since 2009, and accumulated a large sovereign debt, the dollar’s status as an international medium of exchange and reserve currency has not diminished. The Chinese renminbi (RMB), however, barely visible in international trade or financial flows just three years ago, appears to be blossoming. China is now the world’s largest trading nation, and more corporations, particularly in Asia, are beginning to invoice their business in RMB. The Chinese regime is calling for a reform of the international monetary system to expand the internationalization of the RMB. Speculation has begun about whether the U.S. dollar could be supplanted by the RMB. Such a development would jeopardize the enormous economic advantages that the U.S. has enjoyed by possessing the world’s dominant currency. Moreover, it would signal a relative decline in American prestige and global leadership. The answer to the dollar’s potential decline is not to seek obstacles to China’s or any other nation’s economic success, but to change fiscal and monetary policies at home in order to maintain the dollar’s competitiveness.The U.S. dollar has dominated the international monetary system for approximately 70 years. While the U.S. economy has generated weak growth over the past six years and accumulated a large sovereign debt, the dollar’s status as an international medium of exchange and reserve currency (currency held by foreign central banks) has defied the odds and has not diminished.

China “Crosses Rubicon” With Stock Bailout; BofA Says PBoC Risks “Hurting Its Credibility”

Earlier today in “Panic: China Central Bank Steps In To Bailout Stocks As Underwater Traders Pray For A Rebound,” we noted (without much surprise) that the PBoC has officially taken the plunge. Late on Sunday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that China’s central bank is set to inject capital into China Securities Finance Corp which will in turn use the funds to help brokerages expand their businesses and reinvigorate stocks. Translation: China’s central bank is now underwriting brokers’ margin lending businesses.

China-Canada deal means key move of RMB internationalization: expert

The China-Canada agreement on establishing North America’s first offshore renminbi center in Canada accelerates the process of the Chinese currency’s internationalization, said a Canadian expert.

“We should prepare to see the RMB to be much more widely used to become an international currency,” said Domenico Lombardi, an expert on global economy from Canada’s think tank Centre for International Governance Innovation’s global (CIGI).

The establishment of the RMB center symbolizes a key development in the process, Lombardi said in a recent interview with Xinhua. It will help deepen the bilateral relationship between China and Canada, the expert added.

Global banks issue alerts on China carry trade as Fed tightens and yuan falls

Three of the world’s largest banks have warned that the flood of “hot money” into China is at risk of sudden reversal as the yuan weakens and the US Federal Reserve brings forward plans to raise interest rates, with major implications for global finance.

A new report by Citigroup told clients to brace for a second phase of the “taper tantrum” that rocked emerging markets last year, but this time with China at the eye of the storm.

“There’s a dangerous scenario in which the combination of rising US short-term rates and a more volatile RMB (yuan) could lead to a rather large capital outflow from China,” said the report, by Guillermo Mondino and David Lubin.

China’s Big Currency Strategy

China’s growing success in internationalizing the RMB has both political and economic implications.

A Bank of International Settlements survey released on September 5 reveals that the renminbi (RMB) is now among the 10 most actively traded currencies in the world. This comes on the back of China’s recent draft plans to allow full convertibility of the RMB within the newly approved Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ). Both events are intricately linked and are linked to deeper plans by the Chinese government to both internationalize the RMB and consolidate its influence and standing in global financial markets. This suggests that China’s global integration is no longer limited to trade, but is fast spilling over into the realm of finance.