Are You Expecting a New Iran?

One clue after the ‘deal’ was Ayatollah Khatami blatantly saying it will not lead to improved relations.

 

  • If anyone is expecting any liberalization from Rouhani, please note that he is an even more trusted regime insider than Khatami.
  • The main reason there will not be a less aggressive foreign policy is that Iran’s Presidency and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which negotiated the nuclear deal, have no power over the Islamic Republic’s military, police, and intelligence agencies. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) and the Office of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei control all decisions in these arenas.
  • Unfortunately, there has been no diminution of influence or resolve among Iran’s hard-liners, who control all of these institutions.
  • The military and theocratic cliques who dominate the regime will take full advantage of any opportunities created by the nuclear deal quickly and brutally to crush any attempt by Iranian reformers to expand political freedom or social reforms.

Are you expecting a new Iran? The most optimistic scenario by supporters of the nuclear deal with Iran is that the pact will bring about better relations between Tehran and Washington. Continue reading