U.S. Weeks Away From A Recession According To Latest Loan Data

 

While many “conventional” indicators of US economic vibrancy and strength have lost their informational and predictive value over the past decade (GDP fluctuates erratically especially in Q1, employment is the lowest this century yet real wage growth is non-existent, inflation remains under the Fed’s target despite its $4.5 trillion balance sheet and so on), one indicator has remained a stubbornly fail-safe marker of economic contraction: since the 1960, every time Commercial & Industrial loan balances have declined (or simply stopped growing), whether due to tighter loan supply or declining demand, a recession was already either in progress or would start soon. Continue reading

Will the US Economy Collapse Soon?

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After a weak first quarter, America’s financials are bloated while the real economy is barely a step away from recession, however, the overall economy is closer to a lengthy stagnation rather than a full-blown demise.

Kristian Rouz – US economy has not fared well in 2015 thus far, staggering and almost nearing a halt in Q1 as the federal government has been gradually reducing its investment in the non-financial sector. Continue reading