Prepare to Be Blindsided in 2016

Column: The only thing we can predict in politics is that we’ll be surprised

Target: Paris. More than 130 die in a terrorist attack on a Friday night in November. No one sees it coming. Global panic ensues.

Suddenly the nation debates the future of the Syrian refugee program. Terrorism jumps to the front of voters’ minds. National security becomes the defining issue of the 2016 election. No one sees that coming, either.

Around two weeks after the Paris attack, Turkey shoots down a Russian fighter over Syria. Vladimir Putin calls it a “stab in the back” and sends more forces to the region. Barack Obama pleads for calm. Trending on Twitter: World War III. Continue reading