Leaked Chinese Memo Warns Of “Thucydides Trap” With US, “War Is Unavoidable”

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A series of leaked internal documents reveal that China’s military reforms are aimed at allowing Beijing to “manage a crisis, contain a conflict, win a war” and overtake the United States in military strength, according to the Express.

The leaked documents were published by the Central Military Commission in February for the purpose of spreading President Xi Jinping’s “thought on strengthening the armed forces”.

If the reforms go ahead, they will lead to heightened tensions with China’s neighbouring countries, including Japan, in the East and South China Seas and the US. –Express Continue reading

The Grand Troika: A Chance for a World New Order

 

Back in the late summer of 2017 I wrote an analysis of the state of world affairs and international relations after two seismic geopolitical world events occurred almost simultaneously in 2016 – the UK Referendum result to Leave the European Union and the defeat of Democrat Hillary Clinton by Republican Donald Trump for the White House in the US 2016 Presidential Election. Those twin political events were like major earth shaking bombs going off creating all kinds of disturbances and tremors, aftershocks and creating the greatest of shock and bewilderment within the international political order that had held sway since the defeat of Nazism in 1945.

It had become clear to me by the summer of 2017, as I had thought for some time, that politics in Britain – and global geostrategic politics within the broader historical framework of civilizational and human development – had changed profoundly and significantly from were we had been during the 1990s-2012 period, perhaps even from where I started off life in the most intense but ending days of the Cold War in the mid 1980s. Continue reading

Germany Considers Economic Retaliation Against Trump

Caption: German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

 

If America unleashes a trade war starting with BMW, Germany is prepared to fight back.

Senior German politicians have threatened to unleash a trade war on the United States if President Donald Trump follows through his threats to German industry.

President Donald Trump famously threatened to put a 35 percent tax on the German car manufacturer BMW in an interview published by the Times of London and Bild on January 15. German politicians were quick to respond. The next day, German public broadcaster ZDF asked German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble if the world is entering a time of more protectionism. Schäuble said he hoped not but also pointed out one way Germany could hit back.

“I also want to point out that currently American companies don’t have to tax their gains which they make outside of the U.S.,” he said. “That means that hundreds of billions of untaxed gains, of great American companies, rest in a tax oasis” (Trumpet translation throughout). Continue reading

Ascending and Descending Powers

BERLIN/WASHINGTON (Own report) – While Sigmar Gabriel was making his first official visit as Germany’s Foreign Minister to Washington last week, the dispute over Washington’s likely ambassador to the European Union was escalating. The candidate for that post in Brussels, Ted Malloch, does not rule out the collapse of the euro in the 18 months to come. He also conceives of a possible dismantling – or even collapse – of the European Union and has announced that Washington will negotiate more with individual countries, than with Brussels. This could lead to a further accentuation of the existing rifts in the EU. Thus, Berlin is trying hard to prevent Malloch’s nomination. The leaders of several European Parliamentary groups are demanding that his accreditation be blocked – until recently, an unimaginable affront. At the same time, Berlin seeks to position itself as the corrective counterpart to Trump’s Washington in the escalating transatlantic power struggle. Last week in Washington, Foreign Minister Gabriel staged an unprecedented appearance as headmaster on the subject of democracy and human rights. Some members of the German establishment are expecting the EU’s ascent parallel to the United States’ descent on the world stage. Continue reading

Transatlantic Trade War

BERLIN/WASHINGTON (Own report) – In the looming trade war between the EU and the USA, Brussels is threatening to officially denounce the United States as a “tax haven.” The EU Commission is currently preparing this affront to the world power, following Washington’s strong criticism of Germany’s excessive trade surplus. In the six years, from 2010 to 2015 alone, this surplus has led to an outflow of nearly a quarter trillion euros to Germany from the United States because of the “grossly undervalued” euro, according to Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro. This has been confirmed by the Bundesbank’s recent analysis, showing that through its monetary policy the European Central Bank (ECB) has contributed to the euro’s undervaluation, which in turn has facilitated record German exports and the large US deficit. The trade conflict is flanked by a propaganda offensive against the Trump administration, exploiting the new US president’s racist and chauvinist policies to designate him as an enemy. This conflict could lead to the first major power struggle between Germany and the United States since 1945. Continue reading

Chinese Media Say ‘Big Sticks’ Await Trump If He Seeks Trade War

Chinese state media warned U.S. President-elect Donald Trump that he’ll be met with “big sticks” if he tries to ignite a trade war or further strain ties. Continue reading