Repeated concessions by the Obama administration during ongoing nuclear talks with Iran have all but guaranteed that the Islamic Republic will emerge as a nuclear threshold state that could build a weapon with little effort, according to arms control experts who testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday.
Stephen Rademaker, national security adviser for the Bipartisan Policy Center and former assistant secretary of state for arms control, international security, and nonproliferation during the George W. Bush administration, said during the hearing that the recent preliminary deal “fundamentally signifies acceptance by the international community of Iran as a nuclear weapons threshold state.” Continue reading
So long as the United States continues suiciding itself out of existence and becoming increasingly unreliable in the eyes of its allies, expect countries with the capability such as Japan to rise up as they are left with no choice. They have the means for ‘breakout capacity’ and can go nuclear within months.
The Hong Kong-based Yazhou Zhoukan reports that Japan is secretly developing a nuclear weapons program in anticipation of a potential crisis over the Diaoyutai (Diaoyu or Senkaku) islands in the East China Sea.
Japan is currently the only nation in the world which has a complete nuclear industry. Mitsubishi, Hitachi and Toshiba are the three largest Japanese companies which produce nuclear energy. Under those three corporations, there are an additional 200 smaller firms which possess nuclear fuel or who have the know-how to handle plutonium. Continue reading
Iran has bided their time from a weak Obama administration which has turned a blind eye, and even helped by negotiating a nuclear deal in which Tehran gives nothing up whereas the United States does. ICBMs were previously shot into space under the guise of science and uninterrupted enrichment of uranium has accumulated over time to a sufficient amount where they can produce a few nuclear weapons. In the distant future, perhaps they could mass produce. It’s past the point of no return, and while it’s not condoned here, war is the only viable option although questions remain how effective it will be and what repercussions will be faced.
Tehran has capacity to break out to bomb if it wishes, intelligence chief James Clapper tells Senate, but would be detected if it tried to do so
Iran now has all the technical infrastructure to produce nuclear weapons should it make the political decision to do, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper wrote in a report to a Senate intelligence committee published Wednesday. However, he added, it could not break out to the bomb without being detected.
In the “US Intelligence Worldwide Threat Assessment,” delivered to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Clapper reported that Tehran has made significant advances recently in its nuclear program to the point where it could produce and deliver nuclear bombs should it be so inclined. Continue reading
In short, what Iran is seemingly looking to do is be able to up the production capability to where it can build nuclear weapons within two weeks. A two week time period would be too short of a period of time for most nations to react, especially as nations today are forming ‘coalitions’ in order to mitigate political backlash. Throw in the usual stalling/delay tactics as well as Russia and China blocking all efforts in the UN, combined with a United States that is slowly bringing resources to the Asian “pivot” and we might have a perfect recipe for disaster. Once again, Israel will find itself mostly alone with its back against the wall and left no choice but to strike preemptively or in reaction to an attack — neither make a difference now.
Iran’s utilization of advanced IR-2m centrifuges for enriching uranium, in violation of the interim Geneva accord, was presented by the US and the five powers Wednesday, Jan. 8, as the main difficulty in its implementation. This claim allowed the follow-up meeting to take place in Geneva on Thursday, Jan. 9.DEBKAfile’s Iranian and intelligence sources report that this was a lame excuse to account for the real situation, which is that Iran has not even started implementing any part of the Geneva accord it signed last November 24. The follow-up talks this week are not expected to break out of this impasse, any more than the first round did on Dec. 19-20.
This is because the obstacles are far from technical; they arise from Iranian domestic politics. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has fenced in President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammed Jawad Zarif with hard-line objectors to the tactics employed till now by the Iranian team, led by Iranian deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi. In future, negotiators will be required to refer all the conclusions reached with the powers to the policy-making levels in Tehran for approval and abide by their guidelines. Continue reading
DEBKAfile was the first to report that a secret deal was for months already in the works, and it has come to pass. Now, here what we see is how much of a deal the Iranians get as opposed to what the US and Israel get, which is nothing out of it.
The first preliminary nuclear deal the six world powers (US, Russia, China, UK, France and German) signed with Iran before dawn Sunday, Nov. 24, at the end of a four-day marathon, failed to address the most questionable aspects of Iran’s nuclear program, i.e. its clandestine military dimensions. The accord confined itself to aspects of uranium enrichment and stockpiles. UN inspections were expanded – but not applied, for instance, to Iran’s concealed nuclear sites – or even the Parchin military base where Iran is suspected of having tested nuclear-related explosions. Continue reading
As exactly was discussed here several times, and in a most recent post:
Paris legislator Meyer Habib, a friend of Netanyahu, called his FM in Geneva to warn of likely response should accord be signed, Israeli TV reports
A French member of parliament telephoned French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius in Geneva at the weekend to warn him that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would attack Iran’s nuclear facilities if the P5+1 nations did not stiffen their terms on a deal with Iran, Israel’s Channel 2 News reported Sunday.
“I know [Netanyahu],” the French MP, Meyer Habib, reportedly told Fabius, and predicted that the Israeli prime minister would resort to the use of force if the deal was approved in its form at the time. “If you don’t toughen your positions, Netanyahu will attack Iran,” the report quoted Habib as saying. “I know this. I know him. You have to toughen your positions in order to prevent war.” Continue reading
Although the “ETA” on the final product keeps shifting around from as little as one month, to six months or even two years, depending who you ask and what official report you hear it from, the goal still remains the same. The Iranians won’t likely showcase their true capability until it’s too late to strike. Too late meaning that the attacker, for example, will have to fight an Iran with 50 nuclear missiles and face total destruction for even trying. Buying the time for the development is key in this case, therefore, expect to continue seeing a shifting timeline. News of a nuclear Iran or a strike on Iran should be expected to be news you wake up to one day as 9/11 was for America, not a specific date or just two months away.
A new report that says Iran may need as little as a month to produce enough uranium for a nuclear bomb is further evidence for why Israel will take military action before that happens, an Israeli defense official said Friday.
“We have made it crystal clear – in all possible forums, that Israel will not stand by and watch Iran develop weaponry that will put us, the entire Middle East and eventually the world, under an Iranian umbrella of terror,” Danny Danon, Israel’s deputy defense minister told USA TODAY. Continue reading