Massive Russian, NATO Wargames Set To Begin Amid Mutual Accusations Of Provocation

Zapad 2017 preparations

 

As the two old, cold war adversaries, Russia and NATO, prepare to begin massive war games to show off their respective military strengths, it was the UK’s turn to accuse Russia first of “testing the West” by conducting war games on NATO’s eastern flank in its biggest military exercise in four years. Speaking on BBC’s “The Andrew Marr Show” on Sunday, U.K. Defense Secretary Michael Fallon said that Russia’s exercise “is designed to provoke us, it’s designed to test our defensesand that’s why we have to be strong. Russia is testing us and testing us now at every opportunity. We’re seeing a more aggressive Russia. We have to deal with that.”

In a testament to our hyperbolic times, Fallon’s statement also contained just a “little bit” of fake news: while Fallon said that more than 100,000 Russian and Belorussian troops are at the borders of North Atlantic Treaty Organization members, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said last month that the so-called Zapad 2017 exercise Sept. 14-20 involves 13,000 troopsand that the drills are “purely of a defensive nature” according to Bloomberg. Continue reading

NATO Splinters: Germany Says “Has No Choice But To Pull Out” Troops From Turkey’s Incirlik Airbase

 

Diplomatic relations between NATO members Germany and Turkey hit rock bottom on Monday when Germany’s foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel said his country has no choice but to begin the process of pulling its forces out of Turkey’s Incirlik air force base as the Turkish government will not allow all German lawmakers to visit troops there.

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The scandal erupted last Thursday, when Turkey’s foreign minister said it is not possible to allow German lawmakers to visit troops stationed at Turkey’s Incirlik air base now, although he said Ankara may reconsider if it sees “positive steps” from Berlin. It was not immediately clear just what Turkey’s “demands” or expectations, monetary or otherwise, were from Merkel for it to change its view. Ties between the NATO allies deteriorated sharply in the run-up to Turkey’s April 16 referendum that handed President Tayyip Erdogan stronger presidential powers.

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Are NATO Members Paying Their Fair Share? (Spoiler Alert: No!)

This is why a European Army is coming.

 

 

Donald Trump is right to say America’s NATO allies aren’t paying their fair share. As Bloomberg notes, the alliance expects its members to spend 2% of GDP on defense; but it’s no secret that most of them don’t… Continue reading

World War 3 Ready: Russia Forms New Military Task Force To Match NATO ‘Blow For Blow’ In Crimea

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Russia appears to be readying itself for a very serious confrontation with NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), a confrontation that, if it should come to pass, many believe will be the opening stage of World War 3. And that confrontation just might occur in the Crimea, so Russia has not only increased its troop strength in the area, but it also created a new military task force just to go head-to-head with NATO forces.

Daily Star reported over the weekend that Russia’s defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, had informed the Defense Ministry in Moscow that a military task force comprised of four divisions, nine brigades, and 22 regiments had been formed in order to match the massing of alliance forces along the borders of the disputed region. Describing the task force as “self-sufficient,” Shoigu also told the Ministry that, due to the more than 200 military exercises conducted in the area since 2013, the new Russian task force would be able to match NATO blow for blow should hostilities begin. Continue reading

World War 3 Imminent: Russia Could Declare War ‘Overnight’ With ‘No Warning Time’ For NATO

If you’ve been reading Global Geopolitics for a while, you’d know how far the ‘mainstream media’ is behind on catching red flags, so you will have already heard the warning from one of Putin’s henchmen describing how they will carpet bomb everything until they reach Poland:

“We have to strike Poland and the Baltic States, where there are NATO rockets and aircraft. Since we cannot allow one plane to take off and strike Russia – we will have to strike first – half an hour before takeoff. And to be sure, we will be carpet bombing.  America is not a threat, but the small midget states of Europe will cease to exist. They will be wiped out. Then NATO will have to beg us for negotiations. Otherwise we will give them again a May ’45.”

– Vladimir Zhirinovsky, August 2014 (Television interview, 8.08.2014.)

 

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World War 3 mobilization Russian tanks

 

World War 3 is the hobgoblin of the modern military world, what with wars and civil wars and proxy wars springing up all over the globe. But a think tank is now warning the West to be wary of Russia and its military build-up and increased maneuverings and war exercises, for, according to them, they could actually disguise troop and materiel movement that would be the vanguard of a sweeping invasion that NATO and the Western powers might not be able to stop or contain.

The Daily Star reported July 24 that the Atlantic Council, an international affairs think tank headquartered in Washington, DC, issued its latest dispatch on the state of potential military weaknesses with regard to Russia, finding that the world’s largest nation (land-wise) could easily mount a quick and efficient attack in eastern Europe and, in effect, declare war “overnight” and take over the Baltic states before the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) could mount anything close to an effective defense. It would be a military action that could very well lead to World War 3. Continue reading

U.S. think tank RAND: Currently postured, NATO could not defend Baltic states

RAND researchers have conducted a series of wargames to examine the threat Russia may present to the Baltic republics and found that as currently postured, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization could not defend the territory, according to a RAND report titled “Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank. Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics,” by David A. Shlapak and Michael Johnson.

“Russia’s recent aggression against Ukraine has disrupted nearly a generation of relative peace and stability between Moscow and its Western neighbors and raised concerns about its larger intentions. From the perspective of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the threat to the three Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — former Soviet republics, now member states that border Russian territory — may be the most problematic of these. In a series of war games conducted between summer 2014 and spring 2015, RAND Arroyo Center examined the shape and probable outcome of a near-term Russian invasion of the Baltic states. The games’ findings are unambiguous: As presently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members,” the analysts said. Continue reading

The Terrorist Attacks That United Europe

Europe is forsaking a longtime ally as it prepares for all-out war.

The November 13 terrorist attacks in Paris caused a tremendous rift between America and the European Union. For the first time ever, a European nation—France—called on the European Union’s collective defense clause instead of turning to the American-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (nato) for help. This represents a stunning rejection of American leadership.

The nation that benefits the most from France rejecting America is Germany. Germany has dominated the EU for years. France’s move will bring the European armies together in a way that the EU founders only dreamed of.

By invoking the EU’s collective defense clause rather than nato, French President François Hollande was declaring that Europe is more than just a junior partner in America’s defense arrangement. Europe is its own power. It has its own foreign relations, its own interests, and its own goals.

Most people didn’t recognize the significance of France’s decision to call on the EU instead of nato. But it is a choice that will have a massive negative impact on America—as well as Britain and the Jewish state of Israel. It will significantly alter the history of these nations, and of Europe.

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Want to move your tank battalion to take on a threat? NATO’s got a form for that.

How unprepared is NATO in Europe for confrontation? Unprepared enough to where the refugees can move units quicker…

If you’ve been following Global Geopolitics long enough, you might have heard the term ‘unintelligent community’ mentioned quite often. That’s because it’s ill-equipped and caught ‘surprised’ with anything its adversaries do. The same can now be applied to the purged and redirected military under Obama. The U.S. military is now becoming a third-rate army by an administration who is determined that America will no longer remain a global superpower. America is in full retreat and the Sino-Soviet axis is filling in the gap.

And if you didn’t know the last American tanks from European soil were removed in 2013, now you do. Russia is determined to destroy NATO while NATO is determined to be unprepared.

 

Increasing NATO’s speed has become Lieutenant General Ben Hodges’ mantra.

Every time that Russia holds snap exercises moving tens of thousands of men across vast distances, the United States is surprised, the commander of the U.S. Army in Europe said in an interview last week. By contrast, the 28 countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are so tied up in red tape that it typically takes 15 days to get diplomatic clearance to move military equipment from one member state to the next. Cold War-era regulations mean Hodges still needs special permission to travel from his base in western Germany to Berlin.

“What we want is like a military Schengen zone,” the three-star U.S. general said, referring to the border-free travel regime adopted by most European Union countries. “Right now refugees can move across Europe faster than military convoys.Continue reading

Analysis: The real danger in Syria is not ISIS, but a war between major powers

There are many unpredictable aspects of the Syrian conflict, but the downing of the Russian bomber by Turkish jets on Tuesday was not one of them. Indeed, given the simultaneous military campaigns taking place in a relatively small swath of territory by Russian, American, French, Syrian, Iranian, and other forces, it is surprising that such an incident did not happen earlier. Nevertheless, the downing of a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 by Turkish jets marked the first attack on a Russian fighter aircraft by a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member state since 1953. Although this incident is not by itself sufficient to provoke an armed conflict between Turkey and Russia, it illustrates the main danger confronting the world in Syria, namely a conflagration between regional powers, many of which are armed with nuclear weapons. Continue reading

Turkey Downs `Drone’ on Syria Border Amid Russia Tensions

The nationality of the craft is unknown, according to a statement by the military. It had violated Turkish airspace before it was warned and then shot down, the military said. The Anadolu Agency posted pictures of soldiers inspecting a crashed drone and Haberturk television also reported that it was an unmanned aircraft, without saying how it got the information. It said the drone fell inside the Turkish border near the town of Kilis. The military declined to comment on the reports.

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Russia Violates Turkish Airspace Again in Direct Challenge to NATO

Russia has now violated Turkish airspace on two separate occasions, according to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Continue reading

Ex-NATO supreme commander warns of ‘Grexit security nightmare’

An American former supreme allied commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has warned that a possible Greek exit from the Eurozone “could become a geopolitical nightmare” for the European Union and NATO. James Stavridis, a retired four-start US Navy admiral, who served as NATO’s 16th Supreme Allied Commander Europe from 2009 to 2013, said solving the Greek crisis should not be left to the central bankers. In an article published Wednesday in Foreign Policy, Stavridis said the financial administrators that are handling the Greek crisis were not sufficiently cognizant of the massive geostrategic implications of a possible “Grexit”. Continue reading

Obama Snubs Nato Chief as Crisis Rages

President Barack Obama has yet to meet with the new head of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and won’t see Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg this week, even though he is in Washington for three days.  Stoltenberg’s office requested a meeting with Obama well in advance of the visit, but never heard anything from the White House, two sources close to the NATO chief told me.

Kurt Volker, who served as the U.S. permanent representative to NATO under both President George W. Bush and Obama, said the president broke a long tradition.  “The Bush administration held a firm line that if the NATO secretary general came to town, he would be seen by the president … so as not to diminish his stature or authority,” he told me. Continue reading

The 8 Major Geopolitical Catalysts Of 2015

Uncertainty about the immediate future seems to permeate most societies around the world. Few look far beyond the immediate. But what is now being put in place with the current global upheaval will form the basis of the strategic framework for the coming decades.

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was quoted as saying that “if you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there”. Updating this in The Art of Victory, I noted: “If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will lead to disaster.” And the hallmark of the world entering 2015 is that there are few governments which actually have defined goals of a comprehensive or “grand strategy” nature. Many governments have short- to medium-term projects and plans, but few, if any, have a contextual view of themselves and have articulated measurable national goals into the mid-term (20 years or so) and longer periods. Continue reading

The Fog of War Just Got Thicker: U.S. Warplanes Have Trouble Communicating with Each Other

Even after years of war, America’s armed services field incompatible aviation technology that hinders battlefield communication between the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps combat aircraft.

Even after over a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, America’s armed services field incompatible aviation technology that hinders battlefield communication between U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps combat aircraft. The Pentagon is making an effort to fix the problem, but whether it will succeed is an open question.

The problem is the Link-16 datalink that is supposed to be standard across the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). However, while standardization is the aspiration, real-world execution falls short. Continue reading