What Would A U.S. Civil War Look Like?

Trump election

 

Yes, there is a civil war looming in the United States.

But it will look little like the orderly pattern of descent which spiraled into the conflict of 1861-65. It will appear more like the Yugoslavia break-up, or the Russian and Chinese civil wars of the 20th Century.

It will appear as an evolving chaos.

And the next US civil war, though it yet may be arrested to a degree by the formal hand of centralized gov-ernment, will destabilize many other nation-states, including the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

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Donald Trump will lead the US in the right direction. We should take note

Donald Trump will demand European and Asian alliance partners start taking more responsibility for their own security ...

Donald Trump will demand European and Asian alliance partners start taking more responsibility for their own security and paying their way. Photo: Chris O’Meara

 

 

Many working-class Americans, who had traditionally put their faith in the Democratic Party to deliver for them, voted Republican for the first time. In contrast, the Democrats, filled with the false confidence of urban progressives, condescended to call the working-class voter base uneducated and deplorable.

So, what did Americans vote for? How will Donald Trump “Make American Great Again”? Continue reading

Merkel Suffers Historical Defeat in Berlin – The Year from Political Hell is in Motion

The Stage is being set for the most dramatic political change in our lifetime; or for the young in age rather than just hart, post World War II. Angela Merkel’s party came in with absolutely historic losses in elections in Berlin. Some are claiming, such as the Mayor, this will return Nazis in Germany as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) comes to power. Of course, that is rather scare tactics. The AfD is anti-immigration, but have no desire to conquer Europe. Merkel has brought Europe into total and complete chaos with her refugee crisis. Her slogan “We Can Do This” has been used against her saying yes, “We can do this, take our country back.” Continue reading

IMF boss Christine Lagarde calls turn away from globalisation world’s top challenge

In today’s world up is down, down is up, left is right and right is left. Retaining national sovereignty is now an offense to those who want to destroy it.

 

The risk of countries turning their back on global co-operation is the biggest challenge facing the world, as low growth and rising inequality fuel the rise of populism, said IMF managing director Christine Lagarde.

“It did not take the Brexit vote to understand that low growth, rising inequality, and a lack of jobs have combined with social and geopolitical concerns to fuel the rise of populism and inward-looking forces,” Ms Lagarde said in the text of a speech on Thursday at the Centre for Global Development in Washington. Continue reading

Europe Will Never Be The Same. Neither Will The World.

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RLOppenheimer New flag for EU 2015

 

 

To reiterate: People are genetically biased against change, because change means potential danger. People are also genetically biased against acknowledging this bias, because they wish to see themselves as being able to cope with both change and danger. Put together, this means that when changes come, people are largely unprepared or underprepared.

Take this beyond the bias of the individual, and apply it to that of the group (s)he belongs to, the vantage point of a society, and you find the bias multiplies and becomes self-confirming. That is, the members of the group reinforce each other’s bias. When change comes in small and gradual steps, as it mostly does, this can be said to work relatively well. When it comes in large and sudden steps, trouble ensues. Continue reading

A Very Dangerous Time to Fight With China

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Chinese soldiers march in formation pass Tiananmen Square and the Forbidden City during a military parade on September 3, 2015 in Beijing, China. China is marking the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II and its role in defeating Japan with a new national holiday and a military parade in Beijing. (Photo: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

 

It is possible, senior administration officials said last Friday, that President Obama will sanction China for cyber theft as soon as this week—that is, just before its President Xi Jinping comes to Washington later this month. Most likely not; Chinese hacking wouldn’t be seriously affected by sanctioning a half dozen officials, and so most likely Obama will wait until after the visit, and use the dangling sanctions as bargaining power to try to get Xi to rein in his thieves. Continue reading

What Europe’s Elections Were Really About

  • Europe’s impoverishment, resulting from its economic underperformance and unrestrained immigration, mostly from Islamic countries, has caused its voters to opt for national identity, nationalism, regionalism, and the chance to express themselves through a referendum on Europe. Austria’s Freedom Party warmed voters of the prospect of becoming “strangers in their own country.”
  • Thanks to this promise — a referendum on Britain’s membership in the European Union — and that Britain never adopted the euro as its currency, Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron was the only sitting European leader not punished by the voters.
  • Everywhere in Europe, electorates have lost confidence in the bureaucrats of the European Union in Brussels and those of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt. They want once again to be empowered to decide their own political and economic fate.

Europe is in political turmoil. In ever larger numbers, European voters are turning their backs on the established parties and are flocking to populist or nationalist parties on both the right and the left. This shift is happening all over Europe. Last month, one could see it in Britain, Spain, Poland, Italy and Austria. What all the parties have in common is their dissatisfaction with the policies of the European Union, whether because of immigration, the EU’s austerity policies, or its social/ethical agenda. Continue reading

“Secular” Turkey

  • A deeper look into the history of Turkey reveals that, unfortunately, Turkey has never been either truly secular or democratic. In Turkey, freedom of conscience and religion is respected — but only if you are a practicing Sunni Muslim.
  • The problem is that “modern” Turkey claims to be a “secular” republic; a secular republic is supposed to treat all people — Muslims and non-Muslims — equally. The objective of the Diyanet (Presidency of Religious Affairs), on the other hand, is to keep religion (Islam) under the control of the state, and to keep the people under the control of the state by means of religion.
  • “Those who are not genuine Turks can have only one right in the Turkish fatherland, and that is to be a servant, to be a slave. We are in the most free country of the world. They call this Turkey.” — Mahmut Esat Bozkurt, Turkey’s first Minister of Justice, 1930.

When many Western analysts discuss the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey, they rightfully criticize it for its religious intolerance, authoritarianism and lack of respect for secular principles and minorities. They also tend to compare the AKP to former Kemalist governments, and draw a distinction between the Islamist AKP and former non-Islamist governments.

They claim that Turkey was “secular” and somewhat “democratic,” until the AKP came to power.

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Why America’s poisonous politics makes ‘Market Leninism’ an attractive alternative

“Market Leninism” has become the biggest challenge to our society, writes John Avlon. And the problem with this alternative to Western governance is that it promises prosperity at the expense of individual freedom – while dismissing democracy as ineffective

The ideology of communism may have ended up on the ash heap of history like Nazism before it, but now “Market Leninism” is taking its place as a challenge to liberty in the 21st Century.

The fault lines reflect Cold War regions.

Russia and China and some of their old satellite states have traded Marx and Lenin for Market Leninism. Continue reading

Hawks Ascend to Power in Asia

Japan and South Korea underwent leadership changes this week, which means all four of North Asia’s major powers now have different leaders in office since this time last year. As these nations undergo leadership transitions, they’re also jockeying for position in a shifting world order, which places China in a dominant role.

Japan’s new premier is the grandson of a World War II minister who helped run Japanese-occupied Manchuria, and who later tried to abolish the pacifist clause in Japan’s constitution. China is now ruled by the son of a Communist Chinese revolutionary hero—who was a close comrade of Chairman Mao. And both Koreas are now in the hands of descendants of Cold War dictators. Continue reading

This is Germany’s Moment!

It appears the current phase of Europe’s debt crisis is entering its last hour. We’ll know soon, but it’s possible the weekend of May 5, 2012, will be remembered as a transformative moment in the history of Europe.

Once again, the nation at the center of it all is Germany.

Finally, there’s the run-off presidential election in France, which could have enormous impact on Germany and Europe. From the moment the debt crisis began in 2008, the responsibility of fixing it has rested primarily on the German-French axis. Truth be told, President Sarkozy’s main responsibility has been to embrace the solutions coming from Berlin, giving them added legitimacy in the eyes of Europe and the rest of the world.

If Socialist candidate Francois Hollande is elected, Germany loses its French toady.

That’s not all. When it comes to solving Europe’s debt woes, Hollande’s view is the antithesis of that of Angela Merkel and German public opinion. He’s already stated that he won’t support the fiscal pact as it currently exists. When it comes to Europe’s finances, he said last week, “It’s not for Germany to decide for the rest of Europe.” He also believes that instead of austerity, the solution to Europe’s debt woes is printing and spending more money. “So many people in Europe are waiting for our victory,” he said recently, “I don’t want a Europe of austerity, where nations are forced on their knees.”

Read between the lines of that statement. This man isn’t merely campaigning for leadership of France, he’s making a play for leadership of Europe. In another recent address, Hollande told supporters that “the people of Europe expect that we, the people of France, will provide Europe with another perspective, another direction, another orientation.”

They say Hollande lacks personality and charisma. Well, he makes up for it in audacity. He sincerely believes the rest of Europe wants him elected so France can replace Germany at the helm of Europe!

That’s never going to happen. France lacks both the financial health and political muscle to replace Germany as the arbiter of this crisis. Nevertheless, France’s dissension under Hollande could throw Europe into financial and political turmoil. Der Spiegel reported recently that “for France’s neighbors and the fight against the sovereign debt crisis in Europe,” Hollande’s election “will set everything back to square one.”

As you can see, Europe’s financial crisis isn’t even close to being over—though it is likely entering a new, more exciting, more dramatic, more sobering chapter!

It’s possible, likely even, that the convergence of these events—the widespread resistance to German-imposed austerity, the renaissance of nationalism, Spain’s imminent default, the collapse of the Dutch government, and the inconveniently timed national elections in Greece and France—will produce a moment of historic importance. As this unfolds, don’t take your eyes off the nation at the center of it all.

As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote, “The epicenter of Europe’s political crisis may soon be Germany itself.”

We must watch for Germany’s response. It will have a colossal impact on Europe, and on the rest of the world.

Full article: This is Germany’s Moment! (The Trumpet)

Niall Ferguson: China’s got the whole world in its hands

The big contradiction seems to be that a fifth of humanity is living under a communist one-party state within a free-wheeling capitalist economy – a conflict that, on the basis of history, should tear the country apart.

“The spectre of turmoil terrifies the leadership,” says Ferguson. “They face the challenge of managing a dynamic society and that is a real problem with real tensions. But I don’t buy the idea that China is about to implode or disintegrate.”

Harnessing the resurgent nationalism is part of the strategy to contain this threat. So is a policy of economic expansion overseas.

Why does this matter for the rest of the world? For one thing, Ferguson sees unnerving echoes in that mixture of shrill nationalism and overseas ambition of Germany a century ago.

China is already devouring two-fifths of the world’s coal, zinc, aluminium and copper. Now it is turning its attention to foreign territory for those basic natural resources. In Zambia, after Ferguson descends a Chinese-run copper mine, he muses: “Maybe this is the beginning of a world empire.”

Full article: Niall Ferguson: China’s got the whole world in its hands (The Telegraph)

China Unveils New Nuke Missile — Fresh challenge to U.S. Pacific forces

The new road-mobile missile was shown deployed on a transporter-erector launcher. It is the latest indication that China’s military is moving forward with at least four other long-range precision guided missiles that threaten U.S. and Asian security.

The camouflage-painted missile was shown as it was photographed from a passing car. It first appeared online Feb. 29 on at least two Chinese military web sites.

The new missile was described in online posts as a “strategic” missile, meaning it is likely capable of being armed with nuclear warheads.

U.S. intelligence agencies were recently alerted to the new missile and officials say it is being analyzed closely.

A Pentagon spokesman declined to comment on the photos.

The disclosure appears to be another manifestation of China’s growing nationalism and boasting of military prowess. China often showcases new weapons systems around the time of major Communist Party meetings. Two major nationwide sessions in Beijing—the annual National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Congress—are currently underway.

Full article: China Unveils New Nuke Missile — Fresh challenge to U.S. Pacific forces (Washington Free Beacon)