It has become a disconcerting trend that as geopolitical events intensify and keep a majority of people engaged in the latest outbreak of political theatre, the words of central bankers fall on increasingly deaf ears.
During a live interview with Barry Ritholtz for his “Masters In Business” podcast on Monday, Bridgewater Associates CEO – who has been on a seemingly never-ending media tour to promote his new free e-book “A Template For Understanding Big Debt Crises” – once again expounded upon his “1937” markets thesis: That is, his theory that the US economy increasingly resembles the late-cycle dynamic from the 1930s where equity prices topped out as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy. Like the 1930s, the global economy is awash and debt, and populist politicians gaining power and influence in the West.
But more interesting than Dalio’s retread of his calls for a recession to begin some time during the next two years, he also repeated a claim he first made back in September, which has been getting more attention since BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said something similar earlier this month: That the US dollar’s days as the dominant global reserve currency are numbered. Continue reading
Is the Trump economic boom a mirage? The data say yes, but the Fed models say no. The Fed has a long track record of sticking to its model-based approach and missing major turns in the U.S. economy.
Current Fed policy will push the U.S. economy to the brink of recession later this year. When that happens, the Fed will have to reverse course and ease monetary policy. This will send the dollar crashing while gold and the euro soar.
At first, the claim that the Trump economic boom is nothing special seems contrary to the happy-talk headlines coming from CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg and other mainstream business media outlets. Continue reading
Markets were up again big today and volatility was down. But we haven’t seen the last of rising volatility, nor of the central banks’ attempts to thwart it.
This week, new Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be giving his first congressional testimony, and you can be sure that markets are waiting on his words with bated breath.
Before his testimony, the Fed will be releasing its Monetary Policy Report, which will also give an indication to the direction of Fed policy. Continue reading
Please see the source for the video.
David Stockman is warning about the Trump administration’s tax overhaul plan, Federal Reserve policy, saying they could play into a severe stock market sell-off.
Stockman, the Reagan administration’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, isn’t stepping away from his thesis that the 8½-year-old rally is in serious danger.
Two weeks after Aleksandar Kocic highlighted the moment in 2012 when the market stopped caring about newsflow and reality, and, in a word “broke” with pervasive complacency setting in regardless of macro uncertainty…
… Deutsche Bank’s post modernist master of stream-of-consciousness narrative is back with a new essay dissecting his favorite topic, the interplay between the Fed and markets, the so-called “umbilical limbo” that connects the two in the form of ultraeasy monetary policy and QE in general, and more importantly, the narrative that the Fed has spun over the past ten years, which while supportive of risk assets, has concurrently resulted in what Kocic calls a “permanent state of exception” from normalcy as a result of the Fed decision to defer the financial crisis indefinitely. Continue reading
Banks are in over their heads in trouble. Central banks are over their heads in trouble as well. The only thing left to bail them all out would be the IMF — which is within the realm of possibility as we enter a harsh downturn.
Sentiment at IMF annual meeting sours on Fed, BOJ, ECB
The global financial elite has soured on global central bank policy, believing that it’s now counterproductive, doing more harm than good.
That was the message on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Washington, where in informal survey of more than 100 bankers found more than 70% saying monetary policy is now part of the problem instead of a solution. Continue reading
EUROPE’s monetary policymakers can’t fix the bloc’s economy woes, the boss of a leading investment bank has warned.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has the near impossible task of nursing the region back to health and has tried a number of desperate initiatives in recent years to kick-start growth.
Yet most recent figures signal the bloc is still struggling to stay afloat. Continue reading
Video available via source link.
The historic U.K. vote to leave the European Union is a sign of a major global meltdown, not just a watershed that marks the end of a unified continent, former Rep. Ron Paul says.…
“It really is coming to an end. It doesn’t mean tomorrow or the next day, but people are going to be really unhappy. The end is coming, but it isn’t coming because of the breakup,” he added.
As mentioned four times already (here, here, here and here) before anyone picked up on it, the next President will be in over his or her head. In reality, it’s the need to reverse a U.S. decline in power.
Talk about a poisoned chalice. No matter who is elected to the White House in November, the next president will probably face a recession.
The 83-month-old expansion is already the fourth-longest in more than 150 years and starting to show some signs of aging as corporate profits peak and wage pressures build. It also remains vulnerable to a shock because growth has been so feeble, averaging just about 2 percent since the last downturn ended in June 2009.
“If the next president is not going to have a recession, it will be a U.S. record,” said Gad Levanon, chief economist for North America at the Conference Board in New York. “The longest expansion we ever had was 10 years,” beginning in 1991. Continue reading
William Lee, head of North America economics at Citigroup, said in a research note: “Our outlook has little potential to be surprised on the upside, but the risks are very evident on the downside.”
Lee said the downgrade reflected “increased evidence of the dampening effects from looming uncertainty,” most notably the Federal Reserve’s decision to slow plans for interest rate normalization to two increases this year.
Janet Yellen signaled that the Fed is grappling with the problem I have been warning about; the dollar has become the de facto only real currency and the Fed is indeed becoming the world’s central bank. Yellen has admitted that the Fed is being lobbied by everyone to surrender its domestic policy objectives to international. This is precisely what took place in 1927. Yellen stated that the Fed should worry less about inflation domestically than about global growth risks. While pointing to the slowdown in China and depressed commodity prices, Europe is a real basket case. She used the words that the Fed must consider “caution is especially warranted” when it comes to raising interest rates. This has put most Fed watchers off to expecting any possible rate hike into retirement as they expect nothing before September. The BREXIT will most likely be rigged because it is exactly opposite of what they are telling the Brits that they will be isolated and the economy will collapse if the exit the EU. Nobody says Britain did fine before it joined only in 1973 or that it is the other-way-around; with BREXIT, Europe will fail. This heated issue in Britain is most likely the final nail in the coffin. Britain will collapse with the Euro and should have just handed its sovereignty to Brussels. Europe will never reform so it will be all go down together. The political risk in Europe is tremendous and Yellen cannot prevent that with simply interest rates. Continue reading
16 It also forced all people, great and small, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hands or on their foreheads, 17 so that they could not buy or sell unless they had the mark, which is the name of the beast or the number of its name.
Please see the source for the video.
David Folkerts-Landau, global head of research at Deutsche Bank, says that staying at the zero bound of monetary policy for any longer would be a historic mistake. Continue reading
– BIS warns “unrealistic and dangerous to expect that monetary policy can cure all the global economy’s ills”
– Bank of International Settlements warns that recent turmoil is not caused by isolated incidents
– Debt levels are now so extreme they threaten the financial system
– Ultra low rates have led to mal-investment and bigger boom/bust cycles
– Emerging markets vulnerable to deeper crises
– ECB easy money may juice markets for a while but reckoning is coming
– BIS acknowledge that central banks rig markets
– Gold and silver protect against crises in financial system
In a stark warning, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bank of central banks, has said in its quarterly report that the turmoil that has shaken global stock markets in recent weeks showed how developed and emerging markets were exposed to the unwinding of financial vulnerabilities built up since the 2008 crisis. Continue reading