Mideast expert: Israel forced to consider attack on Iran

Now that belligerent Iran has now been given the green light, it wastes no time in showing its true colors and intent. Lifting sanctions has cleared the way for Iran to rise as a world superpower, or Bibically prophesied King of the South.

Long-time readers of Global Geopolitics will also remember it’s been said over the years here that Israel will be backed into a corner and have no choice but to carry out a preemptive strike. In short, this will set the Middle East on fire. Many nations will be involved such as Syria, who has a mutual defense pact with Iran. Turkey might also jump into the fray and take advantage of the chaos by attacking Syria, which might lead to a counter-attack from Damascus on the NATO nation, which means an attack on one is an attack on all. Furthermore, thousands of terrorist cells across the United States homeland will get the green light to carry out attacks — be it crowded shopping malls, hospitals, schools and so on. Expect massive cyber attacks on America’s critical infrastructure, financial system, etc…, too. Lastly, don’t forget, with the U.S. busy and distracted in the Middle East, China might launch an attack on Taiwan which could also lead the Asian giant into an exchange of fire against Japan and America.

Israel will also have to strike soon, possibly by the end of summer or fall of 2015, now that it seems Moscow is going to sell the Iranians missile defense systems than the S-300, as originally offered. This is likely why the IDF is launching massive military drills and calling up reservists as this is being written.

What’s more alarming is that, under the nuclear ‘deal’, the United States is now obligated to protect Iran by ensuring the physical security of its nuclear infrastructure. Yes, you read that correctly. Under Barack Obama, the United States is deliberately working against Israel. In the past, it’s been reported the Obama administration had also threatened to shoot Israeli warplanes down should they attempt to carry out an attack on Iran. Yes, you also read that one correctly.

It’s time for Israel to kill or be killed – and, on schedule and as planned, the Obama administration has provoked World War III where Israel will be set up to be seen as the evil aggressor and the cause of all the world’s ills.

The dynamite has been primed. What lights the very short fuse remains to be seen.

 

Nuclear agreement leaves Jewish state with little alternative

WASHINGTON – The nuclear agreement with Iran leaves Israel with little alternative but to launch a military attack against the Islamic regime’s nuclear facilities, a leading Middle East expert says in a report in Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.

“Assuming the (agreement) goes through the U.S. government and the U.N. Security Council, it’s hard to see what the Israelis can do to protect themselves other than attack the Iranian facilities,” said Middle East Forum president Daniel Pipes in an interview with G2.

Pipes, a historian, writer and political commentator, said that he sees such an attack as “the next stage” and suggests Israel could receive the assistance of Saudi Arabia.

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Swedish support for joining Nato swells

More Swedes are now in favour of their country joining Nato than are against the idea, according to a new survey by pollsters Novus.

37 percent of Swedes questioned said they supported joining Nato compared with 36 percent who were against the idea.

It is the first time a survey has suggested that a larger proportion of Swedes back joining Nato as opposed to keeping out of the organisation.

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Iran’s Leader Says Obama Has Removed Military Option

TEHRAN — Speaking from a stage decorated with a banner proclaiming “America cannot do a damn thing,” Iran’s supreme leader on Wednesday asserted that the Obama administration had taken the option of military intervention to resolve conflicts off the table.

“They realized that military attacks are as dangerous or even more dangerous for the assaulting country as they are for the country attacked,” the leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in an address to the country’s political and military establishment. Continue reading

Inside the Ring: Russia to test new missile

Russia will test launch a controversial missile over the next several weeks that U.S. officials say is raising new concerns about Moscow’s growing strategic nuclear arsenal and Russia’s potential violations of arms treaties.

The RS-26 missile is expected to be deployed with multiple supersonic, maneuvering warheads designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses in Europe, U.S. officials told Inside the Ring.

“The Russians are advertising this as a system capable of defeating U.S. missile defenses in Europe,” the aide said. “At the same time, the State Department is accepting Russia’s claim that this is an ICBM and doesn’t violate INF. It can’t be both.” Continue reading

Israel Loses Patience with Obama, Starts Countdown to Unilateral Decision on Nuclear Iran

Differences between Israel and the United States over a nuclear Iran brought relations to rock bottom this week. Israeli officials frankly and openly criticized the Obama administration out of a sense of being left in the dark and cornered by a campaign of misinformation.

Most of all, they were irked by the way the one-day Istanbul meeting between the six world powers (P5+1) and Iran on April 14 was held up by Washington and Europe as a constructive and successful exercise because Tehran had deigned to keep on talking in Baghdad on May 23, five weeks hence.

In fact, that was the sum-total of its success.

Then, they discovered that, before Istanbul, the US and Iran had reached certain understandings in private, bilateral contacts in Paris – revealed here for the first time. Those understandings rendered the get-together in Turkey a mere formality and were designed to predetermine the “agreed” outcome in Baghdad, i.e. more “progress” and a third session scheduled for the second half of August.

Therefore, unbeknownst to Israel, Washington had prepared the script for the formal negotiating track well in advance. It set out a leisurely timeline affording Iran time to produce more highly-enriched uranium and to tuck its bomb-making nuclear facilities away in fortified underground hideaways, safe from any Israeli attempt to destroy them.

Israel brings out big guns to shoot down false reports

This was the “freebie” to which Prime MinisterBinyamin Netanyahu referred on April 15, after a long conversation with visiting US Senator Joe Lieberman. He accused the US and the world powers of granting Iran a free five-week run to continue uranium enrichment undisturbed up until May 23 in Baghdad. He pointedly mentioned the US separately.

The point was taken instantaneously – distance being no object.

The US president used the press conference winding up the Western Hemisphere summit in Cartagena, Colombia, to retort: “The notion that somehow we’ve given something away or a ‘freebie’ would indicate Iran has gotten something. In fact, they’ve got some of the toughest sanctions that they’re going to be facing coming up in just a few months if they don’t take advantage of these talks.”

It is precisely on this point that Israeli officials felt they were being misled.

For some weeks, Israeli officials have been fighting a rearguard action to fend off the false assertions leaked to the US media. One is that Netanyahu promised President Obama that he would not order an attack on Iran before the November 2012 presidential election. Another, that Israel lacks the military capability to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Obama did not get the last word. On Tuesday, April 17, Jerusalem brought out its big guns to rebut what is seen there as a tissue of falsehoods, while also bringing some rare clarity to its intentions.

Three figures in the prime minister’s confidence on the Iranian issue offered revealing statements within hours of each other.

Israel reverts to an implacable front on a nuclear Iran

Defense Minister Ehud Barak led off by demanding a clear-cut outcome from the talks between the six world powers and Iran – quite simply, the discontinuation of Iran’s nuclear program. The bargaining must not drag on for months. Both these demands, voiced in a morning radio interview, were at odds with the Obama strategy for Iran. Barak went on to echo Netanyahu’s charge that the five-week interval between sessions had rewarded Iran with extra time for developing its nuclear capabilities.

Barak then set off for Washington to meet Defense Secretary Leon Panetta.

The disenchantment coloring his and the prime minister’s comments was rooted, DEBKA-Net-Weekly reports, in their discovery that the “1,000 formula” agreed between US and Israeli officials had not been put on the table at Istanbul.

This formula (first revealed by debkafile on April 9) would have let Iran kept 1,000 centrifuges for enriching uranium to the low 3.5 percent grade, while stocking no more than 1,000 kilograms. Its 20 percent uranium would be exported.

Barak’s words indicated that since the Americans had ditched this formula, Israel too had withdrawn its concession on enrichment and reverted to an all-or-nothing stance.

The former Israel military intelligence MI chief, Maj. Gen. (res) Amos Yadlin came next.

“I don’t think that if Iran has a nuclear bomb it will rush to drop it on Israel,” he said. “But Israel can’t afford to risk letting a nation not only seeking, but actively preparing for, its destruction, attain a nuclear weapon.”

Dep. PM Ya’alon: Iran will have a dirty bomb in 2012

Yadlin’s point was that Israel cannot afford to subscribe to the Obama administration’s willingness to live with a nuclear-capable Iran so long as it stops at the threshold of a final decision to use the resources and technology in its power for actually building a bomb.

In ascending order of resonance, the loudest and toughest decibels came from the third speaker, Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon, who is also minister for strategic affairs.

He made six telling remarks in a television interview Tuesday afternoon:

1. Israel no longer believes the Obama administration.

2. “On the Iranian issue, the US and Israel are not in the same boat.”

3. By the end of the year, Iran will have a dirty bomb. This was the first time a senior Israeli figure has confirmed that Iran is building dirty bombs on the way to completing its nuclear weapons program.

Three hours later, Tehran, which avidly picks up on every word spoken or printed by the “Zionists,” announced the creation of a new “Crisis Management Center for Nuclear and Radiation Accidents,” to be headed by its Atomic Energy Organization’s director, Dr. Fereydoon Abbasi.

Announcing the appointment, Iran’s civil defense chief Gen. Gholam Reza Jalali said:

“Radiation defense will be carried out at national and provincial levels and includes confronting pollution, monitoring threats, treating the injured, cleaning polluted areas, disseminating information and decreasing threats as well as enhancing the level of preparedness, organizing and creating proper mechanisms for times of crisis and holding drills and public training and information dissemination.”

This sounded very much as though Iran was getting ready for an Israeli strike on its stock of dirty bombs after revealing their discovery.

Israel is fed up with Washington’s procrastination

4. Iran will be able to build a nuclear weapon any time between April 2013 and 36 months thereafter.

5. Israel does not accept President Obama’s demand to wait before striking Iran until the end of 2012, i.e. after the US presidential election. According to Ya’alon, Israel was assured that if in 2013 it still finds it necessary to go to war on Iran’s nuclear program, the Americans might undertake the initiative.

Asked by the interviewer if the US president was cynical enough to give his reelection precedence over the threat of a nuclear Iran, the Israeli minister answered with a curt “Yes.”

6. The stalling on an Israeli decision on military action is over. After the Baghdad talks of May 23, Israel will “review its steps,” said Ya’alon.

This was the first time a competent Israeli figure, a member of the top decision-making level, had mentioned dates in connection with a decision about launching an attack on Iran’s nuclear program. He would not have spoken without the authority of Prime Minister Netanyahu.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s sources in Jerusalem say that within 15 minutes of the interview, telephones were ringing off the hook in Jerusalem with urgent demands for “clarifications” from the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon.

But clarifications were really unnecessary. Israel’s message was crystal clear: We are fed up with being kept in the dark; we don’t trust American diplomatic maneuvers to stop a nuclear Iran; and we’re getting ready to make our own decisions.

The most radical US maneuver – a major concession to Iran – was still to come, as will be revealed in a separate article in this issue.

Full article: Israel Loses Patience with Obama, Starts Countdown to Unilateral Decision on Nuclear Iran (DEBKAfile)

U.S. Defines Its Demands for New Round of Talks With Iran

The Obama administration and its European allies plan to open new negotiations with Iran by demanding the immediate closing and ultimate dismantling of a recently completed nuclear facility deep under a mountain, according to American and European diplomats.

They are also calling for a halt in the production of uranium fuel that is considered just a few steps from bomb grade, and the shipment of existing stockpiles of that fuel out of the country, the diplomats said.

That negotiating position will be the opening move in what President Obama has called Iran’s “last chance” to resolve its nuclear confrontation with the United Nations and the West diplomatically. The hard-line approach would require the country’s military leadership to give up the Fordo enrichment plant outside the holy city of Qum, and with it a huge investment in the one facility that is most hardened against airstrikes.

Full article: U.S. Defines Its Demands for New Round of Talks With Iran (NY Times)

Russia, Iran set to counter US/Israeli strike against Iran. US-led naval drill

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov issued a strong warning against a military attack on Iran Monday, April 2,, saying that a pre-emptive strike would violate international law. His comments, made during a visit to Armenia, stopped short of threatening (the US and/or Israel) of consequences. But they backed up and were in tune with the explicit threat from Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last Thursday of strong Iranian resistance to foreign intervention in Syria and vow to defend Damascus as the “center of resistance against Israel.”

Western military observers link the two statements as representing an evolving Russian-Iranian front. After their shared success in delivering Bashar Assad from the revolt against his regime, the two partners are preparing to fend off a potential strike against Tehran’s nuclear program as well as shore up Iran’s regional interests from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. They are getting set to counter two US-led steps, disclosed here by debkafile:

Full article: Russia, Iran set to counter US/Israeli strike against Iran. US-led naval drill (DEBKAfile)

U.S. stops fighting, starts coordinating with Israeli plans for Iran strike

The coming war with Iran is inevitable. It’s been quite clear for some time now that Iran will not give up its nuclear ambitions and Israel will not sit idly while its existence is repeatedly threatened. The main question is, who will strike first and what will be the effect of war. Will it be Israel using a preemptive strike or Iran inducing the return of the 12th imam? Will the US assist Israel should it choose to strike first or will it only help should Israel get hit first? Will support be logistical or militarily? Either way, Iran is bent on destroying Israel and the US, and we could be seeing deadly terrorist attacks at home as they possess the capability and have sleeper cells within the country waiting for orders.

Furthermore, what will the role of Russia and China be? Will they sit idly or will they make good on their threats to protect both of their proxies at all costs, even WW3? In addition, being that Syria has a mutual defense pact with Iran, you can expect them to enter the fray — as well as their respective terrorist proxies such as Hezbollah. You can also expect strikes on countries such as Lebanon, Jordan or even on the Gaza strip as terrorist proxies are planted in each of those areas against Israel.

As you can see, an eventual war will open up a can of worms. One can be certain Israel likely won’t make a move until all aspects are covered and it’s fully prepared to withstand an assault on at least four fronts, its cost of war remains low, it’s shielded against retaliation and can complete its objective: The dismantling of Iran’s means of waging a nuclear war — at least for some time.

Western diplomatic sources said the administration of President Barack Obama has agreed to end open opposition to an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

They said the administration, which already reviewed military options against Iran, has instead focused on military and intelligence coordination with Israel as well as reducing dangers of a global oil crisis.

“Israel has to make its own decisions,” Anthony Blinken, a White House security official, said. “We are not in the business of telling our allies and partners what to do when it comes to their own national security.”

The diplomats said the administration’s new policy continued to caution publicly against any attack on Iran. But in private meetings, they said, U.S. officials and diplomats were discussing war scenarios on the assumption that Israel was prepared to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure by the end of the year, Middle East Newsline reported.

Full article: U.S. stops fighting, starts coordinating with Israeli plans for Iran strike (World Tribune)

Gingrich Warns of Iranian Nuclear Attack

Don’t think it can happen? Politics aside, perhaps people should take a trip down memory lane or become acquainted with the fact that the Soviets likely had a nuclear device in Washington DC at the time JFK was President. Point being, the threat from within is more dangerous than the increasing threat from abroad — an American Hiroshima, if you will. Politicians and security officials in the past have also warned that such a threat is real. Countries such as Iran, who have terror cells within the United States, are prepared to retaliate via terrorism within the homeland should the Islamic republic come under direct military attack or a perceived imminent danger. Conclusion: The threat is real.

In the past, Mr. Gingrich has said that if Iran were to obtain nuclear weapons, then not only Israel but also the United States would be at risk, and he has characterized Iran as a country and a culture that fosters terrorism. He has also talked about how much worse a nuclear attack on the United States would be than the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in New York and Washington.

He tied those warnings particularly close together in his appearance here.

“You think about an Iranian nuclear weapon. You think about the dangers, to Cleveland, or to Columbus, or to Cincinnati, or to New York,” Mr. Gingrich said. “Remember what it felt like on 9/11 when 3,100 Americans were killed. Now imagine an attack where you add two zeros. And it’s 300,000 dead. Maybe a half-million wounded. This is a real danger. This is not science fiction. That’s why I think it’s very important that we have the strongest possible national security.”

Full article: Gingrich Warns of Iranian Nuclear Attack (NY Times)