The Monetary Crisis Cycle Comes in Two Flavours

 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I attended the Paris conference of the BIS when you were the keynote speaker. You delivered a forecast that was probably too far ahead for its time. You said the euro would go through and it would first drop but then peak with deflation in 2008 after the markets crash from 2007. You elaborated saying currency rises during a crash when people run to cash. You also said the euro would then decline for 13 years into 2021 before a new system will emerge.

That stuck in my mind and I watched it fall then rally into 2008 and the crash of 2007 you forecast some 10 years in advance. My question is simply this. You said, if I remember correctly, that the dollar would soar thereafter and we would see another monetary crisis as we did in 1985. Is this your Monetary Crisis Cycle you will reveal in Orlando?

I, and a few others from that conference, have bought tickets. I hope to shake your hand this time for a job well done for they would not have tried to stop you forecasting if you were like everyone else who are usually wrong. Continue reading

ARMSTRONG: Major Central Bank May Fail Next Year

Many analysts are fearful of an impending downturn as early as next year. In an exclusive interview with FS Insider, legendary forecaster Martin Armstrong of ArmstrongEconomics.com explained his outlook on the global economy and markets, including a bold call that, as early as next year, “we’re looking at a central bank that can go bankrupt” — a topic that will be the focus of a July conference in Frankfurt.

Armstrong is a unique, contrarian thinker and has made a number of accurate forecasts over the years, especially since we’ve been speaking with him on our podcast. A key theme of his analysis is that economic growth is likely to remain stagnant as nations around the globe struggle with large debt burdens. However, rather than calling for a collapse in the dollar and the US stock market, as many bears have long predicted, Martin has taken the opposite view, focusing instead on the needs of institutional investors to earn yield by increasingly allocating capital into stocks and highly-rated corporate bonds, which helps to fuel the stock market higher. Continue reading

New York Times – Altering the News to Charge Trump

NYT Jan 20 2017 Trump Wiretap

 

What newspapers are doing between the Print and Online Versions is becoming really about questioning their integrity and reveals why mainstream media is just not trustworthy any more.  The New York Times changed what they printed probably after realizing what they said might hurt Obama. This seems to be a pattern that I found myself involved in. Continue reading

The Sports Cycle and Western Society

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In May 2015, U.S. federal prosecutors filed criminal indictments against fourteen FIFA employees and associates in connection with an investigation by the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation Division (IRS-CI) into wire fraud, racketeering, and money laundering which was all centered around bribery. Then 16 more officials were indicted in December 2015. We also see that Super Bowl viewership peaked in 2015 at 115 million and has begun to decline from a major 26-year high. Last year, Super Bowl viewership fell to 111 million, which is actually the Bearish Reversal. So if 2017 comes in under 111 million, this will confirm sports have begun a bear market. This is yet another parallel with the decline and fall of the Roman Empire. Continue reading

Is Trump Draining the Swamp or Filling It?

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Trump has broken his word and is by no means draining the swamp — he is filling it. He has really betrayed a lot of people by his nomination of Gary D. Cohn as Director of the National Economic Council, which is a policy-making position for domestic and international economic issues. Continue reading

India’s Gold Confiscation & Turkey’s War on Currency

QUESTION: Marty; You have been emphasizing not to buy gold bullion but US gold coins such as the $20. You have said that the last time they confiscated gold coin collections were exempt. With the drastic action in India, and the war on currency in Turkey, is this why you have said stocks and collectibles are a safer bet? Continue reading

All Roads Lead to the Dollar

 

COMMENT: Marty; I have attended every conference since 2011. You have really opened my eyes and you have to be blind to not see that you have called everything trend from the decline in gold, rally in the Dow, collapse of Europe, the rise in the dollar, and the uptick in war/civil unrest not to mention your political forecasting. You should be hailed from every podium and the reason you are not is obvious. The conclusions you force upon the rest to see is against their own self-interest. All roads lead only to the dollar as you have said. Continue reading

War & Economics – Just Follow the Money

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You have pointed out that both Republicans and Democrats have voted for wars and they really seem to have no differences on this issue. You have said they use the social issues to distinguish themselves, but war and economics they seem to always agree. Do you have any insight on this phenomenon? Continue reading

War Cycle on Target – Sad to Say

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All indications are now pointing to war between the USA and Russia. It appears the powers that be in Washington fear a Trump victory and he would end nation building. The military needs to start a war now because if Trump were elected, he would not go along with this mess. Even Russian TV is talking about war in the aftermath of the collapse of cease-fire efforts in Syria. As the Obama Administration and Russia accused each other of sinking diplomacy, and Moscow is now increasing its military presence on all fronts moving nuclear weapons to the border with Poland and throughout the Baltic regions as well as in the in the Mediterranean, All nuclear agreements have been suspended for which Obama won the Noble Peace Prize if you really believe that BS for his nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Russian prime-time news is warning that the U.S. wants to provoke a conflict. I cannot say Russia is wrong. It is indeed the Obama Administration that appears hell-bent on starting war. Continue reading

The Failed EU Design – The Great Divide West v East

QUESTION: I saw you at your presentation in Dresden last year. Things in the East are rather different from the West in Europe. Do you have any comments on this great divide? Continue reading

IMF Concedes Central Banks Are Doomed

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned at the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, that in the face of crises, the refusal to reform how things are functioning will lead to economic weakness in the global economy. “The latest data show subdued activity, less growth in trade and a very low inflation, suggesting an even weaker global economic growth this year,” the IMF told G20 leaders.

Indeed, we are looking at 2016 coming in as the fifth consecutive year in which global growth will be below the average of 3.7% which prevailed between 1990 and 2007. The IMF said: “Without strong political countermeasures the world could suffer a disappointing growth” for several years to come. Christine Lagarde told world leaders: “Even in the longer term the outlook remains disappointing.” Continue reading

Government Preparing for Worldwide Civil Unrest – Why?

 

A number of emails have come in asking if we are advising the government since they are now enlisting firms to research a rise in civil unrest. The answer is no! Nevertheless, everyone knows of the accuracy of our computer systems and our cycle of war models. It was the CIA that, after all, came to us demanding I create the system for them in Washington after the model predicted the fall of the Russian monetary system in 1998. I declined. I did offer to run any study for them on our systems. I was told that was not acceptable for they had to “own it.” I said no way. I believe their position was they did not want anyone else to possess the forecasts. I have also been asked if I am afraid of government. I responded that the only way they will ever get access to what our system forecasts is to leave me alone and read our services. So, this is the Mexican standoff as they say. We agree to disagree. Continue reading

Why is August the Most Active Month for War?

 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You have stated that August is the season of war. Can you explain a bit more than just that. I am sure you have before. But I am new to the blog. Continue reading

Germany & THE 800 POUND GORILLA

The derivative exposure mentioned by Martin Armstrong is what has been covered on Global Geopolitics numerous times over the years under the following posts:

Is Deutsche Bank Kaputt?

New financial MELTDOWN set to sink EU as German banks lose £14,292,610,000.00 in 90 DAYS

Deutsche Bank Exodus Continues As Real Estate Chief Leaves For Blackstone

Is Deutsche Bank the next Lehman?

Deutsche Bank Is Scared: “What Needs To Be Done” In Its Own Words

End of the eurozone? Germany’s biggest lender Deutsche Bank CRASHES with first annual loss

Deutsche Bank shocks with warning of €6bn losses

 

This week, a German cooperative savings bank in the Bavarian village of Gmund am Tegernsee with less than 10,000 in population, announced it will begin charging retail customers to hold their cash starting in September. This will apply to accounts greater than €100,000 euros. This means the bank will charge customers 0.4 percent, which amounts to a direct pass-through of the current level of the ECB’s negative deposit rate. After speaking directly with banking sources, what is happening is that cash is flooding into German banks from around Europe just to park avoiding the negative deposit rate. Now, the banks are starting to pass the negative rates back to the clients. However, much of this flow of capital has also been money fleeing other banks outside of Germany for fear that the euro will break and they will get Deutschemarks. Continue reading

Italy’s Referendum

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You said other nations would follow Britain. It appears that Italy is doing so with their referendum. Is this correct?

You are very famous in Germany by the way.

Continue reading