After Crashing, Deutsche Bank Is Forced To Issue Statement Defending Its Liquidity

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The echoes of both Bear and Lehman are growing louder with every passing day.

Just hours after Deutsche Bank stock crashed by 10% to levels not seen since the financial crisis, the German behemoth with over $50 trillion in gross notional derivative found itself in the very deja vuish, not to mention unpleasant, situation of having to defend its liquidity and specifically assuring investors that it has enough cash (about €1 billion in 2016 payment capacity), to pay the €350 million in maturing Tier 1 coupons due in April, which among many other reasons have seen billions in value wiped out from both DB’s stock price and its contingent convertible bonds which are looking increasingly more like equity with every passing day. Continue reading

Mass Layoffs To Return With A Vengeance

Remember the mass layoffs of 2008-2009? The US economy shed millions of jobs quickly and relentlessly, as companies died and the rest fought for survival.

Then the Fed and the US government flooded the banks and the corporate sector with bailouts and handouts. With those giga-tons of liquidity sloshing around, as well as taking on massive amounts of new cheap debt, companies were able to finance their working capital needs, hire workers back, and even buy-back their shares en mass to make themselves look deceptively profitable. The nightmare of 2008 soon became a golden era of ‘recovery’.

Well, 2016 is showing us that that era is over. And as stock prices cease to rise, and in fact fall within many industries, layoffs are beginning to make a return as companies jettison costs in attempt to reduce losses. Continue reading

Glencore Collapse Could Be Even Worse Than Feared

Editor’s Note: We’re sharing this update on Glencore’s collapse with you because it’s shaping up to be even worse than Michael originally thought. Glencore still poses a “Lehman Brothers”-level risk to the global economy – but it’s now clear the world’s biggest commodities trader is on the hook for hundreds of billions in “shadow debt” that it simply refuses to address. This crisis is one small step away from upending our financial system, so here’s what you need to know…

A lot of powerful voices have joined me in warning about the potential threat that Glencore Plc. (LON: GLEN) poses to global financial markets. Bank of America, for instance, has published a report on the true size of the fallout. As you’ll see in a moment, it’s staggering.

But since we talked about Glencore late last month, something insane has happened: The stock has gone up.

But not for any good reason. The company has not righted the ship. The surge is only due to short-sellers covering their positions. Continue reading

Will China Dumping US Bonds Undermine Global Finance?

China, Russia and Brazil have recently been selling US Treasuries, hedging their fiscal risks and stirring volatility on Wall Street, potentially signaling a more significant slowdown in the global economy coming up.

Kristian Rouz — Several emerging markets, including China, Brazil, Russia and Taiwan, previously among the biggest buyers of US governmental bonds, have recently been selling them at the fastest pace since 1978. US bonds, commonly referred to as ‘Treasury notes’ or ‘Treasuries’ are, however, widely regarded as being among the most ‘safe haven’ assets in the financial world, meaning the emerging markets must have serious reason to cash those out for the more volatile money liquidity. Continue reading

BIS Warns of ‘Major Faultlines’ In Global Debt Bubble

– BIS warns “unrealistic and dangerous to expect that monetary policy can cure all the global economy’s ills”

– Bank of International Settlements warns that recent turmoil is not caused by isolated incidents

– Debt levels are now so extreme they threaten the financial system

– Ultra low rates have led to mal-investment and bigger boom/bust cycles

– Emerging markets vulnerable to deeper crises

– ECB easy money may juice markets for a while but reckoning is coming

– BIS acknowledge that central banks rig markets

– Gold and silver protect against crises in financial system

In a stark warning, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bank of central banks, has said in its quarterly report that the turmoil that has shaken global stock markets in recent weeks showed how developed and emerging markets were exposed to the unwinding of financial vulnerabilities built up since the 2008 crisis. Continue reading

Russia’s Putin drafts bill to dump dollar, euro from CIS trade

A statement from the Kremlin said that Putin submitted to the State Duma a draft federal law which seeks an integrated currency market in the CIS. Continue reading

Putin says dump dollar

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has drafted a bill that aims to eliminate the US dollar and the euro from trade between CIS countries.

This means the creation of a single financial market between Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and other countries of the former Soviet Union.

Continue reading

China’s Stocks Plunge as State Intervention Fails to Stop Rout

China’s benchmark stock index fell to a three-month low on concern a raft of measures to stabilize equities is failing to stop the bear-market rout as traders unwind margin bets at a record pace.

The Shanghai Composite Index slid 3.6 percent to 3,592.35 at 1:04 p.m., after plunging as much as 8.2 percent, the most since 2007. Power, health-care and consumer companies led declines, as only 46 stocks among the 1,106 that trade in Shanghai rose. PetroChina Co. and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the two biggest stocks, lost more than 2 percent.

Continue reading

Is Deutsche Bank the next Lehman?

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Looking back at the Lehman Brothers collapse of 2008, it’s amazing how quickly it all happened.  In hindsight there were a few early-warning signs,  but the true scale of the disaster publicly unfolded only in the final moments before it became apparent that Lehman was doomed.

And the rest is history.

Could this happen to Deutsche Bank?

By the time we are aware of a crisis – if one is in the offing — it will already be a roaring blaze by the time it is known publicly.   It is by now well-established that truth is the first casualty of all banking crises.  There will be little in the way of early warnings.   To that end, we begin connecting the dots: Continue reading

Israelis who count on U.S. recovery are dreaming

The U.S. remains Israel’s most important market, but its economic recovery is stalling.

In recent years the Israeli government and the Israeli private sector have been very busy diversifying export markets and sources of financing and investment. They have concentrated on South Asia and the Far East, especially but not only India, China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. These countries and others have proven to be vital resources for the Israeli economy and in the case of China, an eager participant in joint educational projects as well. Continue reading

“The Greek Endgame Is Here”: Probability Of IMF Default Now 70%, Says Deutsche Bank

As the farcical negotiations between Greece and its creditors unfold ahead of a June 5 IMF payment and as Alexis Tsipras is forced to spread false hope just to avoid a terminal bank run, a picture of the Greek endgame has emerged.

We’ve discussed the political implications of both an agreement or a Grexit and we’ve also taken an in-depth look at what a missed IMF payment means for the country’s EU creditors. On the political front, the troika is intent on sending a strong message to leftist political parties (such as Spain’s Podemos and Portugal’s “ascendant” socialists) that using the threat of a euro exit as a way to extract austerity concessions is not a viable negotiating strategy. What this amounts to is an attempt on the part of the “institutions” to subjugate the political process to economics. In terms of skipping a payment to the IMF — who, as a reminder, effectively paid itself earlier this month by allowing Greece to tap its SDR reserves to pay the bills — there are a number of cross acceleration concerns which you can review by referring to the following graphic: Continue reading

Bank of America: Markets Are in a ‘Twilight Zone’ and It’s Time to Hold More Cash and Gold

You can’t find a bigger warning of lately than what just came from BoA.

 

In a note sent out this morning, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has a warning for investors:

Investors remain trapped in “The Twilight Zone”, the transition period between the end of QE and the first rate hike by the Fed, the start of policy normalization…until (a) the US economy is unambiguously robust enough to allow the Fed to hike and (b) the Fed’s exit from zero rates is seen not to cause either a market or macro shock (as it infamously did in 1936-7), the investment backdrop will likely continue to be cursed by mediocre returns, volatile trading rotation, correlation breakdowns and flash crashes. For this reason we continue to advocate higher than normal levels of cash, adding gold and owning volatility in mid 2015. Given extremities of liquidity, profits, technological disruption, regulation, income inequality…potential for a cleansing drop in asset prices cannot be dismissed. Most likely catalysts: Consumer, Rates, A-shares, Speculation, High Yield.

Continue reading

This Financial “Seismograph” Signals A Monetary Earthquake

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Stock markets in the U.S. are trading approximately 2% from their all-time highs, the German DAX has slightly retraced from its all-time highs, the Nikkei index in Japan has almost surpassed its 2000 highs in recent days, the Shanghai stock index used to be a laggard but is making up at an incredible pace (currently trading at 7-year highs). Indeed, it feels like nothing can go wrong.

We are not yet in bubble territory, and the market is not setting up for an implosion as it did in December 1999 or July 2008. However, we are in the midst of a monetary bubble, driven by an explosion of the monetary base and an implosion of interest rates. Paper assets, as opposed to hard assets, have been pumped up by the liquidity that is being funneled into the economic system and the markets. Continue reading

Greece bailout: Europe turns up pressure as cash runs out

ECB looks at restricting emergency lending to Greek banks

More pressure has been heaped upon Athens, as reports suggested the European Central Bank is looking at placing greater restrictions on the use of its emergency lending facilities by Greece’s domestic banks.

Greek banks have tapped around €74bn (£53bn) in emergency liquidity assistance from the ECB to replace the deposits that nervous domestic savers have pulled out of the financial system in recent months. Without that lifeline, the country’s banks would rapidly collapse. Continue reading

Oil-Rich Nations Are Selling Off Their Petrodollar Assets at Record Pace

In the heady days of the commodity boom, oil-rich nations accumulated billions of dollars in reserves they invested in U.S. debt and other securities. They also occasionally bought trophy assets, such as Manhattan skyscrapers, luxury homes in London or Paris Saint-Germain Football Club.

Now that oil prices have dropped by half to $50 a barrel, Saudi Arabia and other commodity-rich nations are fast drawing down those “petrodollar” reserves. Some nations, such as Angola, are burning through their savings at a record pace, removing a source of liquidity from global markets.

Continue reading

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