It has become a disconcerting trend that as geopolitical events intensify and keep a majority of people engaged in the latest outbreak of political theatre, the words of central bankers fall on increasingly deaf ears.
Markets were up again big today and volatility was down. But we haven’t seen the last of rising volatility, nor of the central banks’ attempts to thwart it.
This week, new Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be giving his first congressional testimony, and you can be sure that markets are waiting on his words with bated breath.
Before his testimony, the Fed will be releasing its Monetary Policy Report, which will also give an indication to the direction of Fed policy. Continue reading
Professionals investors are still digesting the implications of last week’s explosion of volatility, while some retail traders are struggling to cope with the loss of years’ worth of work.
Meanwhile, one man, who was fortunate enough to have his warnings about the possibility of an explosion of volatility triggered by a dangerously large short-gamma positioning in markets documented by the New York Times, is sitting pretty as his illustration of the risks associated with the market’s dangerous sense of calm have proven to be almost eerily correct.
Ironically, Cole doesn’t see it that way. So he joined Erik Townsend during a special “postgame” session of Townsend’s weekly MacroVoices podcast to offer his two cents on the crash, what caused it, and what he expects will happen next. Continue reading
In his farewell interview for the Financial Times, Federal Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble warned of a new global financial crisis predicated upon the Quantity of Money theory that the central banks had pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system that is creating a risk of “new bubbles”. Indeed, many just do not comprehend what is going on and are blaming the new highs in share markets on concerns about the increased risks from the accumulation of more and more liquidity and the growth of public and private debt. Continue reading
– Global debt bubble may be understated by $13 trillion: BIS
– ‘Central banks central bank’ warns enormous liabilities have accrued in FX swaps, currency swaps & ‘forwards’
– Risk of new liquidity crunch and global debt crisis
– “The debt remains obscured from view…” warn BIS
Global debt may be under-reported by around $13 trillion because traditional accounting practices exclude foreign exchange derivatives used to hedge international trade and foreign currency bonds, the BIS said on Sunday. Continue reading
Having warned in the past that “the system is dangerously unacnhored,” former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements, William White, told Bloomberg TV overnight that the current situation “looks very similar to 2008,” adding that OECD sees “more dangers” today than in 2007. Continue reading
Two weeks after BofA’s Michael Hartnett previewed (and timed) not only the “Great Fall” of stocks, but also explained that the Fed and global central banks are now in the business of making the “rich poorer“, he is out with a new note which looks at the Fed’s latest U-turn, which has unleashed the latest market buying spree, warning that “further upside in risk assets will create problems later in the year” (for three reasons he lists out), and concludes that “ultimately, we believe the extremely strong performance by equities and bonds in H1 is very unlikely to be repeated in H2.” Hartnett then goes back to his original thesis that the Fed will no longer pursue its primary mandate of pushing stocks (i.e. wealth effect and confidence) higher because it is “now politically unacceptable for the Fed and any other central bank to stoke a bubble on Wall St.”
As a result, “monetary policy will have to tighten to raise volatility, reduce Wall St inflation, and reduce inequality. There are two ways to cure inequality: you can make the poor richer, or you can make the rich poorer. The Fed will reduce its balance sheet in the hope of making Wall St poorer.“
Fed Chair Janet Yellen just announced that the Fed will be kicking the $USD off a cliff.
She didn’t use those words, but the words she did use weren’t all that different.
But first a little context… Continue reading
BANKING heavyweight Santander has agreed to buy toxic lender Banco Popular for just €1, saving the giant from total collapse.
Spain’s biggest bank must now inject around £6.1billion worth of cash into the bankrupt lender to cover its book of disastrous property loans.
Please see the source for the video.
Even one small interest rate increase by the Fed could have a sweeping impact on U.S. and world economies, Komal Sri-Kumar told CNBC on Monday.
“I think they are going to hike” on March 15, Sri-Kumar said on “Squawk Box,” echoing a theory shared by many analysts. “But that is going to prompt capital outflows from the euro zone, especially with the political risk. It is going to increase the capital outflow from China, and the U.S. economy will feel the impact.”
These moves would strengthen the dollar against other currencies, putting downward pressure on the euro, said Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies. Continue reading
Yesterday the Federal Reserve released a 19-page letter that it and the FDIC had issued to Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, on April 12 as a result of its failure to present a credible plan for winding itself down if the bank failed. The letter carried frightening passages and large blocks of redacted material in critical areas, instilling in any careful reader a sense of panic about the U.S. financial system.
A rational observer of Wall Street’s serial hubris might have expected some key segments of this letter to make it into the business press. A mere eight years ago the United States experienced a complete meltdown of its financial system, leading to the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression. President Obama and regulators have been assuring us over these intervening eight years that things are under control as a result of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation. But according to the letter the Fed and FDIC issued on April 12 to JPMorgan Chase, the country’s largest bank with over $2 trillion in assets and $51 trillion in notional amounts of derivatives, things are decidedly not under control. Continue reading
Negative interest rates, which central banks in several countries have implemented as a way to spur economic growth, is a radical move. In the last of a three-part series, ‘Negative Thinking,’ commentator Satyajit Das examines this policy and its risks.
Low rates are supposed to encourage debt-financed consumption and investment, feeding a virtuous cycle of expansion. They also increase wealth, encouraging spending. Low rates and abundant liquidity should drive inflation.
Instead, these policies since 2008 have brought the global economy a precarious stability at best, and have not created economic growth or inflation. Continue reading
Those looking for when the next financial crisis might be should set a reminder for January 1, 2018.
That’s when a host of new rules are scheduled to come into force that are likely to further constrain lending ability and prompt banks to only advance money to the best borrowers, which could accelerate bankruptcies worldwide. As with any financial regulation, however, the effects will start to be felt sooner than the implementation date. Continue reading
Yesterday, Deutsche Bank AG‘s (NYSE: DB) co-CEO John Cryan released a surprise memo saying its balance sheet “remains absolutely rock-solid.” His assertion comes amid fears that the investment bank is unstable (an understatement) – which could be emblematic of a broader European bank fueled stock market crash.
Releasing a forced statement to the worrying public is something Lehman Brothers did just before it collapsed in 2008. The now-defunct corporate banking giant assured investors that it had enough liquidity to weather the financial crisis in 2008.
As each day passes by, it looks like Germany will lead the world into economic collapse and bring the EU with it. However, this will not lead to a complete breakup of Europe, but a United States of Europe — Germany’s long-term ambition for decades. The crisis, be it economic or social, is leading to further integration within some member states, such as forging the creating of a European Army. The greatest heist of all time is under construction and destroying what we see as the EU today, in order to reshape it into the United States of Europe.
If you follow Bible prophecy and know of the great late David Wilkerson, you might give pause to think about what’s going on today, as his vision laid out in 1973.
It all started in mid/late 2014, when the first whispers of a Fed rate hike emerged, which in turn led to relentless increase in the value of the US dollar and the plunge in the price of oil and all commodities, unleashing the worst commodity bear market in history.
The immediate implication of these two concurrent events was missed by most, although we wrote about it and previewed the implications in November of that year in “How The Petrodollar Quietly Died, And Nobody Noticed.” Continue reading