“The Greek Endgame Is Here”: Probability Of IMF Default Now 70%, Says Deutsche Bank

As the farcical negotiations between Greece and its creditors unfold ahead of a June 5 IMF payment and as Alexis Tsipras is forced to spread false hope just to avoid a terminal bank run, a picture of the Greek endgame has emerged.

We’ve discussed the political implications of both an agreement or a Grexit and we’ve also taken an in-depth look at what a missed IMF payment means for the country’s EU creditors. On the political front, the troika is intent on sending a strong message to leftist political parties (such as Spain’s Podemos and Portugal’s “ascendant” socialists) that using the threat of a euro exit as a way to extract austerity concessions is not a viable negotiating strategy. What this amounts to is an attempt on the part of the “institutions” to subjugate the political process to economics. In terms of skipping a payment to the IMF — who, as a reminder, effectively paid itself earlier this month by allowing Greece to tap its SDR reserves to pay the bills — there are a number of cross acceleration concerns which you can review by referring to the following graphic:

Greece To Tax Bank Transactions, Says IMF “Won’t Get Any Money” On June 5

On Monday we got still more bad news for Greece. Around one-third of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc opposes further aid for Athens meaning the Chancellor faces an uphill battle in convincing German lawmakers to keep Greece on life support. Meanwhile, a new report from the Hellenic Confederation of Commerce and Enterprises suggests that each day without a deal costs the Greek economy €22.3 million.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but Tuesday’s headlines are even worse.

Greece Will Default On June 5 Without Deal, IMF Leaks

Another week came and went with no breakthrough in negotiations between Greece and its creditors. The IMF is now fed up and has reportedly refused to be a part of any new bailout program for Greece, after Athens drew down its SDR reserves to makes its latest payment to the Fund. That money will now need to be repaid and in a move that surely marks the new gold standard for absurd circular funding schemes, Greece will likely look to use the next tranche of IMF money to payback its IMF SDR reserve which it tapped to pay the IMF. The country’s public sector employees live in limbo, not knowing from one week to the next whether they will be paid and commuters are now subjected to a 50 second looped highlight reel of the Nazi occupation meant to rally the country behind the government’s quarter trillion euro war reparations claim (they might as well just ask for a ‘gagillion’) on Germany which has now become the symbol of tyranny and debt servitude for many Greek citizens.