When Israel Strikes Iran in October

Israel is in a political and security quandary.

Officials are convinced it’s only a matter of time before Iran uses its nuclear capability against the Jewish state, living up to the dire threats its leaders have been making for years now.

But Israeli leaders also fear they will lose the window of opportunity to deal a devastating military blow to Iran’s nuclear development if such a strike is not conducted by October of this year.

Why?

Because they believe Barack Obama has a reasonable expectation of being re-elected to the White House – and, if he is, he is likely, unconstrained by concerns about a future election, to be a political liability in the wake of such an action.

However, if the strike is made prior to the election, Obama is much more likely not to condemn Israel. It just wouldn’t be a popular political move for him. Even most Democrats in the U.S. Congress will support Israel’s right to defend itself.

But here’s the quandary – not only for Israel but for Americans who want to see Obama defeated in 2012: Will that kind of “October surprise” indeed help Obama to win the election?

Most Israeli leaders don’t want to see that. But what choice do they have when their nation’s survival is at stake?

Full article: When Israel Strikes Iran in October (WND)

‘Tumour’ of Israel will soon be destroyed: Ahmadinejad

“The Zionist regime and the Zionists are a cancerous tumour,” he said.

“The nations of the region will soon finish off the usurper Zionists in the Palestinian land…. A new Middle East will definitely be formed. With the grace of God and help of the nations, in the new Middle East there will be no trace of the Americans and Zionists,” he said.

The diatribe took place amid heightened tensions between Israel and Iran over Tehran’s controversial nuclear programme.

The Jewish state has in recent weeks intensified its threats to possibly bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities to prevent it having the capability to produce atomic weapons.

Full article: ‘Tumour’ of Israel will soon be destroyed: Ahmadinejad (Yahoo!)

Khamenei: Zionist regime will disappear from map

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday that he was confidant “the fake Zionist (regime) will disappear from the landscape of geography,” Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported.

Khamenei made the comments during a meeting with veterans of the Iran-Iraq War.

“The light of hope will shine on the Palestinian issue, and this Islamic land will certainly be returned to the Palestinian nation,” Khamenei was quoted as saying.

“[Al-Quds Day] is a reflection of the fact that no other way exists apart from resolve and strength to completely eliminate the aggressive nature and to destroy Israel,” Jalali said, according to a report by Iran’s ISNA news agency.

Full article: Khamenei: Zionist regime will disappear from map (Jerusalem Post)

Intelligence Estimate: Iran’s Nukes Nearly Immune From Israeli Strike

Iran’s nuclear program is approaching the “immunity zone”—the point when its equipment is too well defended for Israel to attack—Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported August 10.

U.S. intelligence officials recently produced a new National Intelligence Estimate (nie), which warned that Iran’s nuclear program has made “significant progress,” the paper claimed, citing “top U.S. officials.”

The nie warned that Iran recently installed 5,000 twin centrifuges in its under-mountain base in Fordo, near Qom. Israel fears it may not be able to completely destroy the Fordo facility. If Iran moves a significant amount of nuclear equipment to Fordo, the Israelis may be unable to stop Iran’s nuclear program short of using a nuclear missile themselves.

The U.S. has consistently refused to take any meaningful action against Iran, causing the problem to grow worse. The issue is driving a wedge between the U.S. and Israel. While both share intelligence, the two react to the material very differently. Israel is more urgent to attack Iran before it is too late, while America says there is still time and Israel should wait to see if sanctions work.

Watch for Iran to continue to push toward nuclear weapons. As it gets closer, Europe will become more worried and more urgent. Watch for Israel to draw closer to these European partners as America’s refusal to act further divides the two allies.

Full article: Intelligence Estimate: Iran’s Nukes Nearly Immune From Israeli Strike (The Trumpet)

Iran’s nuclear program designed to ‘finish off’ Israel, Hezbollah MP says

Hezbollah MP Walid Sakariya told Lebanese television this week that the nuclear weapon Iran is allegedly developing is intended to annihilate Israel.

“This nuclear weapon is intended to create a balance of terror with Israel, to finish off the Zionist enterprise, and to end all Israeli aggression against the Arab nation,” Sakariya said.

Full article: Iran’s nuclear program designed to ‘finish off’ Israel, Hezbollah MP says (Times of Israel)

Saudi Arabia Calls Extraordinary Meeting of Muslim Nations

As Washington continues to become increasingly unreliable towards former allies/interests in the region, as the article puts it, look towards more of the same to continue transpiring.

Saudi Arabia continues to create an anti-Iranian alliance.

Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah called for an extraordinary meeting of Muslim leaders to be held August 14-15, the country’s state news agency reported July 22. Saudi Arabia is the head of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, a 57-strong grouping of Islamic nations that has met 12 times since its foundation in 1969. This month’s meeting will be its fourth extraordinary summit.

King Abdullah called the meeting to “examine the situation in many countries of the Islamic world, intensify efforts to confront this situation, address the sources of discord and division therein, reunify the Islamic Ummah [community] and promote Islamic solidarity.”

United States-based intelligence company Stratfor wrote June 30 that Saudi Arabia “may be using the emergency summit to help position itself as a leader in the Muslim world, while casting Iran as a sectarian player.”

“It now sees a historic opportunity to seize the leadership of the Arab Middle East and to curtail Iranian influence in the region,” it continues.

Watch for Saudi Arabia to build a coalition of Middle Eastern nations opposed to Iran.

Right now, the Middle East is going through a key period of change. At the end, almost all the nations will be in one of two camps. One will be a radical Islamic camp led by Iran, which will include Iraq, Egypt, Libya and Ethiopia. The other will be an anti-Iranian coalition, with Turkey and Saudi Arabia as the major players, but also including other Gulf states and Syria. This coalition will align itself with Germany as Europe becomes wary of Iran’s growing influence. Already, Germany, alongside the U.S., is arming members of this group to counterbalance Iran.

This is what Saudi Arabia’s machinations with an emergency summit are all about. Amid the turmoil in the Middle East this summer, watch for these two key alliances to emerge.

Full article: Saudi Arabia Calls Extraordinary Meeting of Muslim Nations (The Trumpet)

Saudis Obtaining Pakistani Nukes?

These links [1, 2] discuss the probability that Saudi Arabia may soon be taking delivery of Pakistani nuclear warheads to put in the Saudi military inventory, making Saudi Arabia an instant nuclear power. I have addressed this possibility in previous posts, but it looks like this may become a reality very soon. Obviously, Saudi Arabia wants the ability to become a nuclear power immediately if Iran becomes a nuclear power. Since Saudi Arabia reportedly financed much of the development of the Pakistani nuclear weapons program, the Saudis likely have a right to obtain a certain number of the Pakistani warheads for themselves when the situation warrants.

There are those who doubt that this arrangement exists, but the reported fact that “at least two giant Saudi transport planes…are parked permanently at Kamra [Pakistan’s nuclear air base]” gives strong credibility to the report that the Saudis are ready to receive an unknown number of Pakistani nuclear weapons at a moment’s notice if Iran’s nuclear program indicates it has reached the ability to produce nuclear weapons. Why else would Saudi transport planes be parked regularly at Pakistan’s nuclear weapon-equipped airbase? At the very least, the Saudis want to have as many nukes as Iran. It is also not impossible that Saudi Arabia so fears a nuclear-armed Iran that it would take delivery of the Pakistani nukes to perform a pre-emptive strike on the Iranian bomb facilities. Saudi Arabia is the guardian of Mecca of Medina and sees itself as the leader of the Sunni Islamic peoples. Iran is the leader of the Shiite Islamic people.

This report indicates that it is not only the Israelis and Americans that might be considering a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities. Sunni Arab Saudi Arabia has no intention of ever being dominated by the Shiite Persians. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are both Sunni Islamic nations.

Finally, remember the old adage: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” That has historically been a truism in Mideast politics. Iran is the growing enemy of both Israel and Saudi Arabia, so the Iranian nuclear program is pushing the Israelis and Saudis together as friends of necessity in this matter…whether they expected this to happen or not.

Full article: Saudis Obtaining Pakistani Nukes? (Steven Mcollins)

Barak Warns Israel Ready to Go It Alone on Iran

Have Israeli leaders gotten tired of waiting for Obama on Iran? Defense Minister Barak says Jerusalem won’t rely on Washington.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned Wednesday that Jerusalem is “committed to doing everything it can in order to stop Iran from going nuclear.”

I am “fully aware of the difficulties and complexities involved in preventing Iran from attaining nuclear weapons,” Barak told graduates of the IDF National Security College.

Israel is facing “difficult and fateful decisions” in weighing methods to stop Iran’s controversial uranium enrichment program, he said.

Iranian officials contend that their program has only peaceful goals, but officials in Jerusalem, the West, and Gulf Arab states say Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons.

Barak said “having to deal with the challenge” of an Iran possessing nuclear bombs “would be many times more complex, dangerous and costly, both in terms of human life and in terms of resources, than a preemptive strike.”

Barak said Israel would remain responsible for its own security, rather than depending on other states, such as the United States.

Referring to the last two years of tumultuous changes in the region, Barak said the so-called Arab Spring “has slowly become an Islamic Summer,” a development that “teaches us that in the moment of truth, we can only rely on ourselves.”

The defense minister insisted that “America understands that the government of Israel — and it alone — holds the ultimate responsibility of the decisions that affect the security and future of the State of Israel.”

Full article: Barak Warns Israel Ready to Go It Alone on Iran (Arutz Sheva 7)

Iran Commander: Navy Ships to Deploy in Atlantic Soon

Iranian naval commander Habibullah Sayyari announced on Monday that Navy ships will be deployed in the waters of the Atlantic Ocean in the near future.

“The powerful presence of Iranian Navy in the high seas has proven the Islamic Republic’s [naval] might,” Sayyari said.

We have proved through continued presence of our vessels in free waters that we are capable of showing the country’s might in the international arenas, he added.

“Taking advantage of [available] potentialities in the Sea of Oman and the Indian Ocean is among the most important ways of promoting sustainable development of the country,” the commander noted.

Full article: Iran Commander: Navy Ships to Deploy in Atlantic Soon (Al-Manar)

Islamic world must have nuclear weapons, says Iran

Iran is now telling the world that in order to confront aggression from America and Israel, it must have nuclear weapons.

Official Iranian media outlets published a commentary Sunday titled “The necessity for the Islamic world to have the atomic bomb,” laying the groundwork for Iran’s refusal to accept limits on its illicit nuclear program.

The essay’s author, Alireza Forghani, is the former governor of southern Iran’s Kish Province and an analyst and a strategy specialist in the camp of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“The fatwa from Imam Khomeini [the founder of Iran’s Islamic revolution] said ‘all Islamic countries have Islamic blood,’” Forghani wrote. “Therefore the Islamic world should rise up and shout that a nuclear bomb is our right, and disrupt the dreams of America and Israel.

Having a nuclear bomb is our right,” he argued. “Israel would have been destroyed completely 30 years ago” but has survived because it has nuclear weapons. 

In February, Forghani laid out the legal case for the annihilation of Israel and all Jewish people. That treatise, which ran in all the Iranian regime’s media outlets, openly called for a pre-emptive strike on Israel.

Among the state-run media carrying Forghani’s new piece — which argues that Iran should have an atomic bomb – is the major outlet Fars News Agency, which is run by the Revolutionary Guards and thus represents the views of the Islamic regime.

Full article: Islamic world must have nuclear weapons, says Iran (The Daily Caller)

Exclusive: Obama weighs action to prevent Al Qaeda grabbing Syrian WMD

US President Barack Obama, though widely expected to pursue direct action against Syrian ruler Bashar following the Houla atrocity, is preoccupied with what he regards as a greater threat to the world: a potential grab for the huge Syrian stock of chemical and biological weapons by Al Qaeda’s or other terrorist organizations. This is reported exclusively by debkafile’s Washington and intelligence sources.

The US president is trying to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept his new plan for the immediate assignment by the UN Security Council of 3,000 armed monitors to Syria to take charge of the six chemical and biological stores. Another 2,000 will join the team later.

To allay Putin’s suspicions of a trick to insert Western armed forces into Syria against Moscow’s will, Obama suggested that most of the monitors would be Russian or nationals of governments lining up with its support of the Assad regime.

Obama warned Putin that the jihadists have never been so close to getting hold of large quantities of such deadly unconventional weapons, especially now that the Syrian army’s 4th Division, commanded by Assad’s brother Maher, which guards those stores, is additionally assigned with suppressing the revolt and therefore inadequately manned for securing them.

If the Russian President buys his plan for 5,000 international monitors to take over the security assignment, Obama hopes he will also persuade Assad and even Tehran to accept it.
Early Thursday, May 31, the US president held a video-conference call on the subject with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, to brief them on his initiative and his talks with Putin.

The Russian president has not yet given Obama his answer, still suspecting an American ruse for placing Western troops inside Syria. Hence his spokesman’s statement Wednesday: “Russia is not considering changing its stance on Syria and any attempts to apply pressure on Moscow are hardly appropriate.”

Tehran, taking this to mean that Putin has not rejected Obama’s proposal, was put out enough for a forceful threat: “Western intervention in Syria would result in a regional upheaval that would undoubtedly engulf Israel,” said Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani. “It would spread to Palestine and ash rising from the flames would definitely engulf the Zionist regime…US military officials should be aware of their dangerous game.”
This was taken by sources in Washington as an Iranian threat to burn Israel if Obama’s plan to post 5,000 armed monitors in Syria goes through. Iranian sources told debkafile that the threat was aimed equally at deterring Putin from cooperating with it.

Full article: Exclusive: Obama weighs action to prevent Al Qaeda grabbing Syrian WMD (DEBKAfile)

Is Russia Itching for War with Georgia?

A few things to consider and reflect upon after reading the article:

  • Russia more than likely manufactured a justification for invading Georgia in 2008.

This is evidenced by Spetsnaz meddling in domestic affairs since 2004 and likely the prior years as well. The same measures were taken up by the Soviet Union prior to World War II and its respective invasion of Poland. They were labeled fascist for years by Soviet propaganda to groom/ready the population, and in order to gain both domestic and foreign support for nefarious reasons: the conquest of Europe it has always yearned for.

There is also a larger pattern to Soviet measures taken throughout history. Another such example would be Chechnya, which brings about and harbors most of Russia’s terrorism troubles. However, how Moscow deals with this thorn on its side is stark in contrast compared to Georgia. Like Georgia, the country could’ve been invaded, slaughtered and wiped off the map long ago and several times over but it serves a different purpose: Chechnya is (indefinitely) Russia’s “playground” for military application. It is a platform for military preparation and readiness.

Keeping in mind the bigger picture, the 2008 invasion wasn’t a Soviet “playground” for weapons testing and military training exercises. Instead, the Georgian invasion was most likely over the strategic energy corridor that would’ve given Europe energy independence it was seeking with help from the United States — not a perceived (and manufactured) viable threat from a tiny nation with under five million citizens.

  • Russia wants a war with Iran.

As mentioned with the energy corridor in Caucasus region, an attack on Iran would create a severe disruption in the transportation of oil supplies. Without a doubt, and being that Russia sits atop a fifth of the world’s known reserves of natural gas, the Soviet strategists would love to see their country become rich overnight via skyrocketing energy prices. Simultaneously, this would likely break the Western world as imports would cease and as it already holds reluctancy in utilizing the already-available resources in its very own backyard (Canada, Gulf of Mexico, Florida, etc…). This would likely cause the result the Soviets have been longing for, for decades: the shift in world power balances and a newly Sino-Soviet centric ideological world paradigm.

  • War is inevitable.

As the saying goes: Peace is a prelude to war. There are no signs of military preparations/mobilizations ceasing between all parties involved. Iran continues along the path of nuclear arms production, ratcheting up conventional military provocations and threatens to wipe Israel off the map on a weekly basis. Israel has repeatedly said a nuclear armed Iran will not be tolerated.

There is also a high likelihood of a preemptive attack on Iran by Israel between now and the US Presidential elections in November. Time is running out and Israel sees itself in a position where it cannot afford to ‘wait and see’ if a pro-Israel Romney might win. Meanwhile, it cannot afford to have once more a reluctant and unstable partner in Barack Obama for another four years, who noteably has visited almost every other country in the Middle East — besides Israel. Another four years of Obama would keep them pinned and more susceptible to continiously growing military threats from almost every direction in the region. Therefore, the likelihood of an attack beforehand rather than afterward is higher.

Additionally, the United States is in too weak of a position both politically and economically. Henceforth, it lacks the will to muster a meaningful response as was seen in 2008 under George W Bush. A sympathetic sold-out media along with Soviet propagandists will certainly make sure that all eyes and attention remained focused on Israeli/US “aggressors” while Georgia, and possibly the Caucasus region permanently return into the old Soviet Union fold and sphere of influence — another long-sought objective.

Having said this, look for the re-invasion of Georgia to happen and coincide with a war against Iran.

No one expected Russia to become a major campaign issue in 2008 when it went to war with Georgia, ripping away the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Now, there are signs that Russia is itching for a rematch that would finish off the pro-American Georgian regime led by Mikheil Saakashvili.

This development comes while Russia is preparing for a possible strike on Iran. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin explained, “Iran is our neighbor. If Iran is involved in any military action, it’s a direct threat to our security.” Reportedly, Russia has drawn up plans to send forces to Armenia in such an event, which requires going through Georgia, toppling Saakashvili on the way.

In 2008, Russia’s annual Kavkaz exercises were used as a cover to deploy and train the forces that invaded Georgia the next month. This year’s exercises are to take place in September. Russia announced that Spetsnaz units will be sent to the North Caucasus region for the exercises and airborne assault forces and attack helicopters will deploy to Base 102 in Gyumri, Armenia. One report claims that the families of soldiers at the base have already been evacuated.

It is quite possible that Russia will provide assistance to the Iranian regime from Armenia in the event of a conflict. After all, Saddam Hussein awarded medals to former Soviet advisors for helping him to prepare for the 2003 invasion. Russian Spetsnaz units were deployed to Iraq and are suspected of having helped cleanse the country of documents and incriminating materials. The Russians also gave Saddam Hussein details about the U.S. war plan, retrieved through a spy at CENTCOM. Russia continues to arm Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and deployed an “anti-terror” unit to assist him in March.

There are also strategic and economic benefits for Russia and Iran if Georgia is invaded. Europe gets about 1 million barrels of oil per day from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan through a pipeline that goes from Baku to Tbilisi, Georgia to Ceyhan, Turkey. It goes around Russian and Iranian territory. In the 2008 war, Russian aircraft were witnessed bombing it. By invading Georgia, Russia gets control of that critical pipeline.

The Russians have sought the overthrow of Saakashvili ever since the 2008 war and has consistently claimed that he’s sponsoring jihadist terrorism to justify future action. One Russian lieutenant that was interviewed during the last war said, “It [South Ossetia] will be Russia. And Georgia used to be Russian, too.”

In August 2009, Russia accused Georgia of orchestrating an Al-Qaeda suicide bombing in Ingushetia. Russia immediately cast suspicion on Georgia after the March 29, 2010 subway bombings in Moscow. The Deputy Foreign Minister said that Saakashvili is “unpredictable” and could strike at any moment.

Hypocritically, it’s Russia that’s been sponsoring the covert attacks. A secret U.S. intelligence report from 2007 reveals that the Russian GRU has been behind a number of violent “active measures” in Georgia since 2004, including the killing of Georgian cops, a 2005 car bombing, two attacks on the Georgian-Russian pipeline in 2006, the sabotage of a vital power line and the arming of separatists. Russia was also responsible for an explosion next to the U.S. embassy in Tbilisi on September 22, 2010.

Full article: Is Russia Itching for War with Georgia? (Frontpage Mag)

More than 60 nuclear experts at work building Iranian nuclear bomb

The names and addresses of 60 Iranian experts employed by 11 different Iranian agencies under the control of the Iranian Defense Ministry were revealed Saturday, May 12, by the main Iranian opposition Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK/PMOI).  This is the first time an extensive, highly secret, central organizational structure dedicated to building a nuclear weapon has been revealed in detail – specifically the Ministry of Defense under the command of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which also runs the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.

The information updated to April 2012 was provided by “sources within the Iranian regime’s agencies, including military institutions.”
It contradicts the fundamental conclusion reached by the US and five world powers and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – that Iran’s nuclear program is not run by a single organization – on the basis of which they entered into negotiation with Tehran. Most of all, it refutes another key argument heard in the West that Iran has not yet decided to actually build a weapon because Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s said it would be a “sin.”

The Mujahedin-e Khalq, which Tehran accuses of collaborating with US and Israeli intelligence to assassinate its nuclear scientists, clearly timed the publication of its findings for 11 days before the Six Powers were due to hold a second round of nuclear talks with Iran in Baghdad on May 23, DEBKAfile’s intelligence and Iranian sources report.

Full article: More than 60 nuclear experts at work building Iranian nuclear bomb (DEBKAfile)

Change of French presidents weakens Western front against nuclear Iran

The outgoing French President Nicolas Sarkozy spoke more forcefully and frankly than any other Western leader about the real danger of a nuclear-armed Iran and accepted that it would have to be tackled by military action. He was also stood out as one of the few French leaders of recent times prepared to fight for French and Western Middle East interests.

The role of French special forces, navy and air forces, alongside US and British forces, was pivotal in the campaign to overthrow Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi. In recent weeks, he placed French units on standby in case President Obama decided to intervene in Syria. In the event, the US president pulled back from an operation that was planned to have involved Saudi and GCC armies as well.

France’s successful military showing in the Libyan war brought no political or economic rewards. Indeed, Paris shelled out a million dollars it could ill afford to pay for it. Sarkozy’s opponent Francois Hollande did not make this an issue in his campaign, but it was certainly not lost on the French voter. The French Muslim voter no doubt settled scores with Sarkozy for his ban on the veil and pro-Israeli policies and may even have cost him the presidency, although this issue too did not come to the fore in electioneering.

Full article: Change of French presidents weakens Western front against nuclear Iran (DEBKAfile)

Iran readies secret salt desert bunkers for clandestine nuclear facilities

When International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director Yukiya Amano declared Friday, May 4, that “Parchin (the suspected site of nuclear-related explosion tests) is the priority and we start with that,” he may have missed the boat. As he spoke, Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak said it was possible that Iran was already putting in place the infrastructure for building a nuclear bomb in 60 days.

In this regard, debkafile’s military sources disclose that Iran had by the end of 2009 early 2012 completed the construction of a new chain of underground facilities deep inside the Dasht e-Kavir (Great Salt Desert) – all linked together by huge tunnels.

Nevertheless, Tehran keeps on putting off nuclear watchdog inspections at Parchin for three reasons:

2.  The Iranians can’t be sure they have scrubbed out every last trace of the nuclear explosives and detonators tested at the Parchin military base – even after clearing away the evidence and relocating the facility in the salt desert wastelands.

Asked to define the activities he wanted inspected in Parchin, Amano said: “We do not have people there so we cannot tell what these activities are.”  According to debkafile’s intelligence sources, while the IAEA may want hard physical evidence collected by its inspectors, US and Israeli intelligence have long possessed solid information on the illicit activities in Parchin collected by the nuclear-sensitive instruments carried by their military satellites.

One of the biggest, our sources disclose, is managed by the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group, manufacturers of the ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads. US intelligence discovered in November 2010 that North Korea had transferred to Iran 19 nuclear-capable BM-25 ballistic missiles with a range of 2,500 kilometers.

Full article: Iran readies secret salt desert bunkers for clandestine nuclear facilities (DEBKAfile)

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