A few things to consider and reflect upon after reading the article:
- Russia more than likely manufactured a justification for invading Georgia in 2008.
This is evidenced by Spetsnaz meddling in domestic affairs since 2004 and likely the prior years as well. The same measures were taken up by the Soviet Union prior to World War II and its respective invasion of Poland. They were labeled fascist for years by Soviet propaganda to groom/ready the population, and in order to gain both domestic and foreign support for nefarious reasons: the conquest of Europe it has always yearned for.
There is also a larger pattern to Soviet measures taken throughout history. Another such example would be Chechnya, which brings about and harbors most of Russia’s terrorism troubles. However, how Moscow deals with this thorn on its side is stark in contrast compared to Georgia. Like Georgia, the country could’ve been invaded, slaughtered and wiped off the map long ago and several times over but it serves a different purpose: Chechnya is (indefinitely) Russia’s “playground” for military application. It is a platform for military preparation and readiness.
Keeping in mind the bigger picture, the 2008 invasion wasn’t a Soviet “playground” for weapons testing and military training exercises. Instead, the Georgian invasion was most likely over the strategic energy corridor that would’ve given Europe energy independence it was seeking with help from the United States — not a perceived (and manufactured) viable threat from a tiny nation with under five million citizens.
- Russia wants a war with Iran.
As mentioned with the energy corridor in Caucasus region, an attack on Iran would create a severe disruption in the transportation of oil supplies. Without a doubt, and being that Russia sits atop a fifth of the world’s known reserves of natural gas, the Soviet strategists would love to see their country become rich overnight via skyrocketing energy prices. Simultaneously, this would likely break the Western world as imports would cease and as it already holds reluctancy in utilizing the already-available resources in its very own backyard (Canada, Gulf of Mexico, Florida, etc…). This would likely cause the result the Soviets have been longing for, for decades: the shift in world power balances and a newly Sino-Soviet centric ideological world paradigm.
As the saying goes: Peace is a prelude to war. There are no signs of military preparations/mobilizations ceasing between all parties involved. Iran continues along the path of nuclear arms production, ratcheting up conventional military provocations and threatens to wipe Israel off the map on a weekly basis. Israel has repeatedly said a nuclear armed Iran will not be tolerated.
There is also a high likelihood of a preemptive attack on Iran by Israel between now and the US Presidential elections in November. Time is running out and Israel sees itself in a position where it cannot afford to ‘wait and see’ if a pro-Israel Romney might win. Meanwhile, it cannot afford to have once more a reluctant and unstable partner in Barack Obama for another four years, who noteably has visited almost every other country in the Middle East — besides Israel. Another four years of Obama would keep them pinned and more susceptible to continiously growing military threats from almost every direction in the region. Therefore, the likelihood of an attack beforehand rather than afterward is higher.
Additionally, the United States is in too weak of a position both politically and economically. Henceforth, it lacks the will to muster a meaningful response as was seen in 2008 under George W Bush. A sympathetic sold-out media along with Soviet propagandists will certainly make sure that all eyes and attention remained focused on Israeli/US “aggressors” while Georgia, and possibly the Caucasus region permanently return into the old Soviet Union fold and sphere of influence — another long-sought objective.
Having said this, look for the re-invasion of Georgia to happen and coincide with a war against Iran.
No one expected Russia to become a major campaign issue in 2008 when it went to war with Georgia, ripping away the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Now, there are signs that Russia is itching for a rematch that would finish off the pro-American Georgian regime led by Mikheil Saakashvili.
This development comes while Russia is preparing for a possible strike on Iran. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin explained, “Iran is our neighbor. If Iran is involved in any military action, it’s a direct threat to our security.” Reportedly, Russia has drawn up plans to send forces to Armenia in such an event, which requires going through Georgia, toppling Saakashvili on the way.
In 2008, Russia’s annual Kavkaz exercises were used as a cover to deploy and train the forces that invaded Georgia the next month. This year’s exercises are to take place in September. Russia announced that Spetsnaz units will be sent to the North Caucasus region for the exercises and airborne assault forces and attack helicopters will deploy to Base 102 in Gyumri, Armenia. One report claims that the families of soldiers at the base have already been evacuated.
It is quite possible that Russia will provide assistance to the Iranian regime from Armenia in the event of a conflict. After all, Saddam Hussein awarded medals to former Soviet advisors for helping him to prepare for the 2003 invasion. Russian Spetsnaz units were deployed to Iraq and are suspected of having helped cleanse the country of documents and incriminating materials. The Russians also gave Saddam Hussein details about the U.S. war plan, retrieved through a spy at CENTCOM. Russia continues to arm Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and deployed an “anti-terror” unit to assist him in March.
There are also strategic and economic benefits for Russia and Iran if Georgia is invaded. Europe gets about 1 million barrels of oil per day from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan through a pipeline that goes from Baku to Tbilisi, Georgia to Ceyhan, Turkey. It goes around Russian and Iranian territory. In the 2008 war, Russian aircraft were witnessed bombing it. By invading Georgia, Russia gets control of that critical pipeline.
The Russians have sought the overthrow of Saakashvili ever since the 2008 war and has consistently claimed that he’s sponsoring jihadist terrorism to justify future action. One Russian lieutenant that was interviewed during the last war said, “It [South Ossetia] will be Russia. And Georgia used to be Russian, too.”
In August 2009, Russia accused Georgia of orchestrating an Al-Qaeda suicide bombing in Ingushetia. Russia immediately cast suspicion on Georgia after the March 29, 2010 subway bombings in Moscow. The Deputy Foreign Minister said that Saakashvili is “unpredictable” and could strike at any moment.
Hypocritically, it’s Russia that’s been sponsoring the covert attacks. A secret U.S. intelligence report from 2007 reveals that the Russian GRU has been behind a number of violent “active measures” in Georgia since 2004, including the killing of Georgian cops, a 2005 car bombing, two attacks on the Georgian-Russian pipeline in 2006, the sabotage of a vital power line and the arming of separatists. Russia was also responsible for an explosion next to the U.S. embassy in Tbilisi on September 22, 2010.
Full article: Is Russia Itching for War with Georgia? (Frontpage Mag)