The Sanctions Debate

BERLIN/MOSCOW (Own report) – In the prelude to Chancellor Merkel’s visit to Russia, German business associations and foreign policy experts are urging that the policy of sanctions be ended. They argue that sanctions practically have become ineffective, since Russia’s economy has withstood these trade restrictions and is now even recovering. The boycott has also damaged the EU’s image and that of the USA in Russia and, even though intended to weaken, it has helped to stabilize the Russian government. Moreover, Russian orders, that German businesses had once expected, were increasingly going to competitors, for example in China – and are ultimately lost. However, German economists still see Russia as a lucrative market. According to an analysis by the Bertelsmann Foundation and Munich’s ifo Institute, a free-trade agreement between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), congregated around Russia, would generate a growth of 45 billion euros. Government advisors recommend that the sanctions policy be gradually ended. This would not eliminate the prospect that Moscow, at any time, could be forced to its knees with an arms race.

An Essential Part of the West

WASHINGTON/BERLIN (Own report) – After Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections, the German government announced that it will continue its close cooperation with the United States and is calling for enhancing Germany’s position in the transatlantic relationship. Chancellor Angela Merkel “offered” President-elect Donald Trump “close cooperation” on the basis of particular conditions. Jürgen Hardt, the German government’s Coordinator of Transatlantic Relations, spoke of the “necessity for us Europeans, and particularly for us Germans, to assume more responsibility.” This “responsibility” would “grow” under a US President Trump and this concerns “all … instruments of foreign and security policy.” The call for more German influence reiterates positions recently voiced in Berlin’s foreign policy establishment, demanding “not to leave stability policy proposals up to the USA,” but to independently evaluate how to “shape the future global order.” German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen and Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, are linking this demand to a call for significantly increasing the German military budget.

The New Silk Road (I)

And Germany will do it. When push comes to shove, it has historically sided with Russia and other axis powers. China should be no exception. In a time when America is suiciding itself off the world stage, it’s a matter of survival for its allies as they seek more stable and consistent alliances.

 

BEIJING/BERLIN (Own report) – With tensions rising between China and western powers, the German chancellor is using her current visit in Beijing to enhance Sino-German economic cooperation. German investments in the People’s Republic of China had increased to around 60 billion Euros in 2014 – tendency still rising – surpassed only by investments in the USA and a few EU countries. Business representatives are campaigning in favor of stronger German participation in a Chinese trillion-dollar project. This project named the “New Silk Road,” is aimed at bolstering ties between Eastern Asia and Europe. The project, also on the agenda of today’s German-Chinese government consultations, has two components, overland and maritime transport routes. Trade by train from Chongqing to Duisburg and by ship through the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean will be enhanced. While German companies hope for lucrative business deals, strategists warn that the New Silk Road could enhance Beijing’s global influence – and ultimately break the western powers’ global dominance.

Major Powers and their Wars (II)

BERLIN (Own report) – In an article published by the leading German foreign policy journal, an influential diplomat predicts that worldwide, there will be a further increase in the number of wars and their victims, this year. “The number of conflicts, their victims, and their refugees” has been increasing worldwide, for the past five years and this development will “most likely continue this year.” The journal, “Internationale Politik,” substantiates this assumption by presenting an overview of the current wars. Today’s deadliest wars – in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, and South Sudan – are indeed a direct or indirect outcome of western hegemonic policies. With its military interventions or subversive support for insurgents, this policy is aimed at provoking pro-western putsches or weakening non-compliant states. “Internationale Politik” assesses the possibility of conflicts in China’s vicinity. During the years of China’s rise, western powers were unsuccessful in knitting strong ties with the resource-rich Arab world, in view of the impending power struggle with the People’s Republic of China. This power struggle is already emerging.

NATO’s Southern Strategy

BRUSSELS/BERLIN/WASHINGTON (Own report) – The leading foreign policy journal of Germany is debating NATO’s utility. Today, the utility of the Alliance is “unclear,” according to the latest edition of “Internationale Politik.” Countries in Europe and North America could solve their “security” problems without NATO, whereas – this should be conceded – NATO has done great damage to relations with Russia. In light of the EU’s military policy, Washington should encourage the EU to “defend itself,” says the author, an expert in an influential US think tank. While “Internationale Politik” is raising fundamental questions, NATO is opening a debate on a new “southern strategy.” Since Russia is expanding its naval presence in the Mediterranean and establishing new military bases in Syria, the Mediterranean “is a contested space,” according to NATO circles. The deployment of drones in Sicily has been announced, along with plans to intensify cooperation with the countries of the region. “Advisers” are already active in Tunisia, Jordan and Iraq and should also be sent to Libya as soon as possible. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has announced that the debate will be continued at the meeting of NATO foreign ministers, scheduled for early December.

The New German Arrogance (II)

Germany knows controlling the flow of information is key, therefore it is now capturing the cyber realm. This, plus taking steps towards an EU Army, forcing further integration of EU member states and turning them into vassal states (i.e. Cyprus) are all key actions/characteristics of a nation striving to be a world superpower. Germany is now directly competing against the United States. The Fourth Reich has (almost) landed.

 

BERLIN/WASHINGTON/VIENNA (Own report) – In cooperation with NSA, a US military intelligence service, the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) has massively intercepted and stored emails from Austria, Luxembourg and the Czech Republic. This became evident through an internal email from an employee of the Deutsche Telekom AG, responsible for cooperation with the intelligence service and police. According to the email, published by the Austrian parliamentarian Peter Pilz, Telekom, already in early February 2005, had given a green light to the BND having access to a fiber optic cable for internet communication connecting Luxembourg to Austria and numerous other countries. At the time, Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD), as Head of the Federal Chancellery, bore the highest responsibility for the activities of the BND. According to reports, Austria’s domestic intelligence was also being tapped. Whoever is cognizant of this communication, knows “almost everything about the Republic’s political life,” summarized Pilz. The governments concerned have raised no serious protests, in the Germany-dominated EU. The German government is continuing the BND’s technological upgrading, aimed ultimately toward raising German espionage “to an equal footing” with the NSA – also in internet spying.

War by Other Means (II)

BERLIN/KIEV/MOSCOW (Own report) – German Chancellor Angela Merkel is convinced that the West will be “victorious” in the power struggle with Moscow. Merkel told the Munich Security Conference on the weekend that the Ukraine conflict “cannot be won” with military means. That is why “a new way must be found.” Comparing the current power struggle to the Cold War, she reaffirmed, “I am a hundred percent convinced that, with our principles, we will win.” Earlier, Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, had expressed a similar view proposing that a “double strategy” be applied in the West’s power struggle with Russia. According to the journal of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), the power struggle, which currently cannot won with military means, should be returned “from the military to the economic level.” To this effect, Berlin has launched a diplomatic offensive that should lead to talks in Minsk on Wednesday.

Powerful Ally

WASHINGTON/BERLIN (Own report) – Demands for a stronger orientation on a global cooperation with the United States are being raised in Germany’s foreign policy establishment. In face of growing global insecurity, it would be very useful to have a powerful ally, according to a programmatic article by an editor of “Die Zeit” published in Germany’s leading foreign policy journal. France could not replace a collaboration with the US, because it is too “state-led” and its “leadership is solely a network of relationships.” Berlin, however, could “assume more self-confidence” in its cooperation with Washington, because Germany has become “a minor superpower.” The fact that the Unites States is increasingly becoming a motor for the German export industry has a positive effect on plans for cooperation: German exports to the USA rose by one-third between 2010 and 2013. Observers expect an even more important increase, at a time, when German exports to central countries of the Euro zone and to Russia – once Germany’s export oriented companies’ great hope – are in a slump. New business opportunities with the USA are fueling political cooperation.

Establish Facts

KIEV/BERLIN (Own report) – After a jetliner was shot down over Eastern Ukraine, influential German foreign policy experts have begun calling for a military intervention, which may include German Bundeswehr units. “A Blue Helmet mission under the umbrella of the United Nations” should now be taken into consideration, declared Andreas Schockenhoff, Co-Chair of the CDU/CSU Group in the Bundestag. “Germany may also be asked” to contribute troops. For the Chairman of the Bundestag’s Defense Commission, Hans-Peter Bartels (SPD), a Blue Helmet mission is also “conceivable.” It is yet unclear, who bears responsibility for downing the jetliner. This is not an essential question for him, as past experience with Western interventions have shown: The EU and the USA must politically establish the facts. The war against Yugoslavia was justified with a massacre. Substantial doubts about central aspects of this massacre still persist. The sniper killings on Kiev’s Maidan Square on February 20 have never been elucidated, once they served as legitimation for overthrowing the government of President Yanukovych. Suspicions persist that sectors of today’s governing Maidan opposition may have played decisive roles in these murders; however that is of no interest to the West. On the contrary, there have never been political consequences for a US warship’s downing of an Iranian airliner in 1988.

Breath-Taking Progress

What you see here is the notion that without humans in combat, there’s less risk involved, therefore there is stronger public support for the usage of UAVs in war, and war itself. Such might be the current situation in America today, as it’s waging 74+ wars, both declared and undeclared. If there’s no human intervention (i.e. drone strikes) or a small teams of special ops are being used, it’s not thought of as a war.

BERLIN (Own report) – The German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) is propagating in favor of the deployment of combat drones. The influential think tank, headquartered in Berlin, has published an opinion poll indicating that more than two-thirds of the German population are in favor of using Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles or UCAVs in warfare. The results of this poll can be found in the current edition of “Internationale Politik,” the journal published by the DGAP. The journal extensively treats the subject – with an unambiguous tenor: UCAV development is characterized as an “enormous technological leap” that the German armed forces cannot evade. The authors consider the construction of combat drones, which, based on artificial intelligence can quasi “autonomously” carry out killer functions without human intervention, to be a “logical consequence.” The PR campaign, launched by the DGAP, accords with the German government’s intention to increase the reliance on UCAVs in future wars.