What The World’s Biggest Banks Have In Store For The U.S. Dollar

Central bankers from Beijing to Brasilia have been acquiring a lot more dollars of late, but the overweight of the greenback has reached its limits. There is only one way left to go. It is time to sell the dollar once again.

Or so says Jerome Booth.

Booth has been in the currency and fixed income markets since 1999. That’s when he helped launch the Ashmore Group, one of the largest pure-play emerging market fund managers in the world with around $70 billion under management. Before he retired to write books and launch his new private equity firm New Sparta Limited, Booth was a regular source of mine here at FORBES. He’d talk about the wonders of emerging market debt; their relative strength compared to the Western world and how they’ve improved  from their “Third World” days of yesteryear; and the day of reckoning that would come when the Chinese yuan becomes a reserve currency.

After Francs Comes Dollar: Greenback Might Skyrocket Soon

 

After the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has undermined global confidence in regulators, any sudden action by the US Fed might trigger a feverish buyout of the dollar, pushing its FX rate sky-high, demolishing the entire architecture of international trade in goods and services.

MOSCOW, January 21 (Sputnik), Kristian Rouz — The recent shock to the currencies markets, having come from Switzerland on 15 January, when the franc appreciated by 23% in a single-day trading session, has badly damaged the international financial stability, with capital leaving the Eurozone and investors feverishly buying out gold and US bonds. Such a dramatic change in FX rate of one of the global reserve currencies has triggered major debt risks worldwide, from Eastern European mortgages to Russia’s burden of excessive corporate debt. Now, across the Atlantic, the robust economic growth and market optimism in the US have spurred the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, inevitably triggering the dollar to strengthen.

Western sanctions push Russia, China closer; hurt dollar

TOKYO — By forcing Russia to conduct more business in the yuan and other Asian currencies, the U.S. may be speeding up the end of the petrodollar and giving China more prominence on the world stage.

As the West tightens financial sanctions against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine, Russian businesses are reducing their exposure to the dollar to minimize the damage from still tougher punishments. Many of these businesses have turned to the Hong Kong dollar as an alternative to the greenback.

Hong Kong harbor

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The Hong Kong dollar is an ideal safe haven for Russian companies looking to park their cash. Because the currency is pegged to the greenback, the foreign-exchange risk of holding Hong Kong dollars is no different from owning the U.S. currency. But because Hong Kong is part of China, funds held in the Hong Kong dollar are unlikely to be affected, even if the U.S. and Europe introduce tougher sanctions against Russia, such as asset freeze.

Are the dollar’s carry trade days numbered?

The video unfortunately cannot be posted here due to compatibility issues, but can be found in the link to the source, if interested.

Traders borrowing U.S. dollars to fund investments in other currencies should beware, with analysts expecting the greenback to strengthen and advising a shift to borrowing the euro instead.

“U.S. rates and the U.S. dollar may get a pop from an expected jump in April inflation,” Barclays said Monday in a note titled “Carry on, but don’t fund with USDs.”

Over the medium term, Barclays expects the U.S. inflation risks are to the upside, making it likely the greenback will continue to strengthen. Barclays expects the U.S. dollar index (DXY) to rise 5 percent by year end, with a 7.3 percent rise over 12 months.

Putin’s Direct Threat: We Are Ready to Crash the Dollar (from Voice of Russia)

We have been saying for years that there is a global economic war underway. We have warned that Putin has long intended to attack America with a particular obsession with the reserve currency status of the United States’ dollar. Now, Voice of Russia states that it is time for the attack on the dollar to commence. This is a departure from the previous message on March 28 which stated:

“Russia is fully in control of the petrodollar and could cause the Dow Jones industrial average to plummet as it has never done before. One can wave the Stars and Stripes as long as one likes, but it’s a fact that the Russians can turn the US economy upside down . . . So far, Moscow has been in no rush to resort to extreme measures. Russia is going to react in a mirror-like way . . .”

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Lately, China has led the BRICS efforts to dislodge the dollar from its position as the main global currency, but the “sanctions war” between Washington and Moscow gave an impetus to the long-awaited scheme to launch the petroruble and switch all Russian energy exports away from the US currency .

Replace dollar with super currency: economist

The World Bank’s former chief economist wants to replace the US dollar with a single global super-currency, saying it will create a more stable global financial system.

“The dominance of the greenback is the root cause of global financial and economic crises,” Justin Yifu Lin told Bruegel, a Brussels-based policy-research think tank. “The solution to this is to replace the national currency with a global currency.”

PBOC Says No Longer in China’s Interest to Increase Reserves

The People’s Bank of China said the country does not benefit any more from increases in its foreign-currency holdings, adding to signs policy makers will rein in dollar purchases that limit the yuan’s appreciation.

“It’s no longer in China’s favor to accumulate foreign-exchange reserves,” Yi Gang, a deputy governor at the central bank, said in a speech organized by China Economists 50 Forum at Tsinghua University yesterday. The monetary authority will “basically” end normal intervention in the currency market and broaden the yuan’s daily trading range, Governor Zhou Xiaochuan wrote in an article in a guidebook explaining reforms outlined last week following a Communist Party meeting. Neither Yi nor Zhou gave a timeframe for any changes.

Saudi Arabia chases closer ties with China amid US tension

CNBC is doing their best to downplay and whitewash the threat, however, from the daily headlines one can easily see China along with other nations are undermining the USA’s stability. They’re working on dethroning the Dollar, creating an alternative to the American-led internet, cyber hacking critical infrastructure/financial systems/military networks and so on. America is under full assault and it’s not difficult to see for those who would rather follow the news and not the Kardashians.

Saudi Arabia was already disappointed by the Obama administration’s decision to side with Russia and opt against military strikes on Syria, effectively ending Saudi hopes that the U.S. would turn the tide against the Iran-allied government of Bashar Assad in Damascus.

“The Syrian issue was the straw that broke the camel’s back. The kingdom is concerned that any victory for Assad would boost Iran’s regional influence,” Naser Al-Tamimi, author of “China-Saudi Arabia Relations, 1990-2012: Marriage of Convenience or Strategic Alliance?” explained to CNBC.

China seeks world role for ‘people’s money’

AFP – With deals from London to Singapore, China is seeking a greater role for its yuan currency in global markets to challenge the hegemony of the almighty dollar.

The most attention-grabbing reform planned for Shanghai’s new free trade zone is free convertibility of the yuan — also known as the renminbi, or “people’s money” — an unprecedented change which would allow greater use of the currency.

Is the Dollar Dying? Why US Currency Is in Danger

The U.S dollar is shrinking as a percentage of the world’s currency supply, raising concerns that the greenback is about to see its long run as the world’s premier denomination come to an end.

When compared to its peers, the dollar has drifted to a 15-year low, according to the International Monetary Fund, indicating that more countries are willing to use other currencies to do business.

Billion dollar bet on rate cut pays off

From the man that nearly broke Britain:

It may go down as one of the great currency bets in Australian dollar history  – a $US1 billion gamble on a Reserve Bank  rate cut that has delivered a $US19 million ($18.65m) profit in 36  hours.

The beneficiary, if you believe the rumour mill, is investment legend George  Soros.

Best of all, it appears the 82-year-old American pulled off the deal three  times, all with different foreign exchange brokers in Asia, for a tidy profit of  almost $US60 million.