Goldman Warns That Market Valuations Are at Their Highest Since 1900

 

  • Returns likely to be lower across all assets in medium term
  • Risk scenario sees inflation jump that ushers ‘fast pain’

A prolonged bull market across stocks, bonds and credit has left a measure of average valuation at the highest since 1900, a condition that at some point is going to translate into pain for investors, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Continue reading

China Would Outlast U.S. in Trade War, Billion-Dollar Fund Says

China would outlast the U.S. in a trade war, which is a “distinct possibility” next year after President-elect Donald Trump takes office, a commentator wrote in the $1 billion Pine River China Fund’s investor letter.

China’s government would be better placed than the U.S. to marshal state resources to cushion the impact on exporters, wrote James Wang, a City University of Hong Kong professor who pens a monthly commentary for the fund. Privately-owned Chinese exporters would be worse hit than state-controlled peers because they have less political clout in Beijing, he said. Continue reading

Rich and powerful warn robots are coming for your jobs

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Some of the richest, smartest and most powerful humans have an important message for the rest of us as they convened this week to discuss pressing global issues: the robots are coming.

“Most of the benefits we see from automation is about higher quality and fewer errors, but in many cases it does reduce labor,” Michael Chui, a partner at the McKinsey Global Institute, said on Tuesday during a panel on “Is Any Job Truly Safe?”

Continue reading

Chicago Stock Exchange Says It’s Being Sold to Chinese-Led Group

The Chicago Stock Exchange said a Chinese investor group agreed to acquire it, giving the buyer entry into the intensely competitive U.S. equity market.

Chongqing Casin Enterprise Group has signed a definitive agreement to acquire the company, according to a statement Friday, which didn’t give financial terms. The exchange said the deal is expected to close in the second half of the year, though that will require regulatory approval. Continue reading

Plunging prices could force a third of U.S. oil firms into bankruptcy

Saudi Arabia’s economic war on America’s oil industry will soon start to show its effect. Declining prices mean less profit. Less profit means operating costs, mainly wages, are unsustainable. Unustainable operating costs mean layoffs and bankruptcies. This leads to collapse of the oil industry.

 

Drillers from Houston to Riyadh won’t quit pumping despite the oil glut.

 

Three major investment banks — Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc.   — now expect the price of oil to crash through the $30 threshold and into $20 territory in short order as a result of China’s slowdown, the U.S. dollar’s appreciation and the fact that drillers from Houston to Riyadh won’t quit pumping despite the oil glut. Continue reading

Did the Fed Just Enter the Currency Wars?

(Bloomberg) — The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting last month have foreign-exchange traders wondering whether Janet Yellen has joined the currency wars.

Central bankers from Europe to Australia have engaged this year in bouts of rate-cutting oneupmanship, leaving the U.S., and possibly Britain, as the only developed nations seen as likely to raise borrowing costs in 2015. The dollar climbed to its strongest in more than a decade as a result, prompting billionaire Warren Buffett and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President Gary Cohn to question whether the Fed can now increase rates without damaging the U.S. economy. Continue reading

Banks prepare plans for Greek eurozone exit

A new Greek currency? Plausible. Grexit? As oft here discussed, Greece is too important for that.

 

Banks and other financial institutions in Europe are stress-testing their internal systems and dusting off two-year-old contingency plans for the possibility Greece could leave the region’s monetary union after a key election later this month.

Among the firms running through drills are Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc.,  and brokerage ICAP PLC, according to people familiar with the matter. Continue reading