How a World Order Ends

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And What Comes in Its Wake

A stable world order is a rare thing. When one does arise, it tends to come after a great convulsion that creates both the conditions and the desire for something new. It requires a stable distribution of power and broad acceptance of the rules that govern the conduct of international relations. It also needs skillful statecraft, since an order is made, not born. And no matter how ripe the starting conditions or strong the initial desire, maintaining it demands creative diplomacy, functioning institutions, and effective action to adjust it when circumstances change and buttress it when challenges come. Continue reading

Will Donald Trump Make Germany Great Again?

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German ‘Bundeswehr’ army soldiers pictured at the training ground during the preparations of the ‘Landoperationen 2017’ military exercise in Munster, Germany, (Philipp Schulze/picture alliance via Getty Images)

 

The U.S. president wants Germany to be the world’s third-largest military spender.

United States President Donald Trump agrees a lot with the Trumpet when it comes to world news. Certainly not always. But consider his recent trip to Europe.

He warned that Germany was too close to Russia. Last year we called that alliance “The Russian Alliance You Really Have to Worry About.” He said that Europe is attacking America on trade. Ten years ago, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry warned that Europe was waging “a quiet but concerted war on American commerce.” President Trump complains that the U.S. spends billions defending Europe. In the 1950s, Herbert W. Armstrong warned that “in spending unprecedented billions of your dollars and mine—tax dollars—preparing Germany and Europe for defense,” America was making a huge mistake.

A few weeks ago, someone wrote in to ask me why I’m so pro-Trump. This is not about being pro-Trump or anti-Trump. We are saying what we have always said—he just happens to be saying it too.

So there was a lot to like about his Europe trip. But there is also a major danger.

Donald Trump’s Europe trip could be a milestone in making Germany great again, and in turning Germany against America. Continue reading

Russia Buys 300,000 Ounces Of Gold In March – Nears 2,000 Tons In Gold Reserves

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Russia buys 300,000 ounces of gold in March and nears 2,000t in gold reserves
– Russia now holds just over 1,861 tonnes, more than officially reported by China at 1,842t
Both Russia and China have the power to destabilise US dollar by dumping dollar-denominated assets
– Turkey has removed all gold held in the U.S. opting for Bank of England and BIS
– Turkey follows trend set by both Germany, Netherlands and others to remove gold reserves stored in the United States
– Central bank decisions regarding gold reserves are examples of countries becoming nervous about the outlook for the dollar under the Trump administration

Russia bought another 300,000 troy ounces of gold in March bringing Russia’s total gold reserves to 1,861 tonnes or 60.8 million troy ounces as of the start of April, the central bank announced loudly at the weekend.

The continuing robust and steady accumulation of gold reserves continues and it was notable how Russian media channels loudly (more loudly than usual it seemed with many outlets covering) pronounced the continuing diversification into gold bullion by the Russian central bank. It suggests that gold is being used as a bulwark to protect Russia from the stealth financial, trade and currency wars which appear to be deepening. Continue reading

Springboard into the Pacific Region

BERLIN/CANBERRA (Own report) – To reinforce its position in the Pacific region, Berlin is initiating a regular dialogue with Australia at foreign and defense ministerial levels. Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier are participating in the first “German-Australian 2+2 Dialogue” held today in Berlin. The meeting, which will be repeated at regular intervals, is one of the measures initiated in early 2013 to enhance cooperation between Berlin and Canberra, in light of the shift of global policy priority from the Atlantic to the Pacific. In view of its growing economic and political importance, Washington considers China to be its main rival of the future. Therefore US President George W. Bush (2002) and US Foreign Minister Hillary Clinton (2011) explicitly declared this to be “America’s Pacific Century,” and Washington has begun redeploying its military forces closer to the People’s Republic of China. Explicitly claiming to “help shape the global order,” Berlin also feels obliged to reinforce its position in that region.

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Confronting New Wars

BERLIN (Own report) – The German Bundeswehr’s new “White Paper” is conceived as just a milestone in the ongoing development of German global policy and its instruments, according to an article published by Germany’s leading foreign policy periodical. According to the article’s two authors, who had been in charge of elaborating the “White Paper” for the German Defense Ministry, the White Paper’s explicit claim to shape global policy and policy for outer space must be implemented and “brought to life” in the near future. While the German government is initiating new projects for upgrading military and “civil defense” measures, the EU is boosting its militarization: A growing number of government leaders of EU member states are supporting the creation of an EU army under openly proclaimed German leadership. According to a leading German daily, the balance sheet of recent German military involvements is “not exactly positive,” but this should not discourage future military interventions. One should, however, not expect too much and harbor “illusions about rapid successes.”

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Putin’s Gamble: An End to NATO and Restoration of Russian Might

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This article first appeared on the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University site.

In 1985, a Soviet leader came to power, leading one of the two superpowers in a bi-polar world, commanding a powerful military and leading a party mandated with changing the world.

Mikhail Gorbachev was also equipped with something far more powerful than the weapons in the Soviet arsenal—forecasts of the USSR’s future inability to compete with the United States in economic, technological and military terms. Gorbachev was convinced that the Soviet war economy and its priorities would constrain and exhaust its national capacity to compete successfully at the end of the 20th century—and that the internal system needed change for the USSR to sustain itself as a competitive, global power. Continue reading

Modern Strategy Concept (II)

After the United States is done suiciding itself and falls into the hands of the Sino-Soviet axis, here’s who your next world superpower is going to be in a post-American world. The Fourth Reich has landed and its EU Army isn’t too far behind. It just needs the loss of American supremacy, which is why kicking out NATO is key.

 

BERLIN (Own report) – Experts, commissioned by the German defense ministry to formulate a new White Paper, have promoted Germany to the status of a global regulatory force. At a conference, discussing the basic military policy document currently in elaboration Volker Perthes of the government affiliated German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) also expressed this opinion. According to Perthes, Germany must see itself as a “responsible intermediate power” that “preserves and develops the global order.” Germany’s “regulatory” radius extends from its “eastern neighborhood” to Africa and the Middle East. Other SWP experts expressed similar views in a programmatic document: “Germany’s periphery” has been transformed into an “arc of crisis, extending from the Baltic to the Middle East and Maghreb.” According to the ministry of defense, the German concept of order is based on the EU’s ongoing military integration. The establishment of a “European Defense Union” remains the “ultimate goal.”

Continue reading

U.S. Adviser Warns That Russia Is Sapping World Order

U.S. diplomat Charles Hill was a senior adviser to former U.S. secretaries of state George Shultz and Henry Kissinger, and to Boutros Boutros-Ghali, the sixth Secretary-General of the United Nations. He has also penned two books: “Grand Strategies: Literature, Statecraft and World Order” and “Trial of a Thousand Years: World Order and Islamism.”

The Moscow Times talked to Hill about the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis on today’s world system and the role other global and regional powers play in preserving — or undermining — the global order. Continue reading

A Geopolitical Nightmare: No Happy Endings If Russia Melts Down

 

“What happened in Crimea was a terrible thing. What happened in Ukraine was a tragedy. What is happening in Russia now is a threat to the global order.”

As the ruble plummets, there is a degree of satisfaction and even relish in the West at the sight of Russia’s difficulties. The balloon of Putin’s strategic genius is rapidly deflating in the face of harsh economic realities: now the Russians will be put in their place.

Today’s Russia is not the Soviet behemoth, comparatively disconnected from the world economy. Nor is it the struggling reform economy of the 1990s. It is the world’s eighth largest economy, well integrated into the global marketplace. If Russia goes into a prolonged recession, it is not just Russia itself that bears the consequences—it will be the rest of the world as well. First in line is the European Union, whose member states—some barely emerging from recession—have extensive trade links with Russia. Continue reading