EL-ERIAN: If the Greek ‘no’ vote wins, prepare for a global stock market sell-off

They’re still counting the votes, but so far the “No” vote has the lead. In other words, “No” the Greek people do not want to accept strict fiscal austerity measures in exchange for desperately needed bailout money.

In a post on Facebook, Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian offered a brief preview of things to come should the “No” vote win.

“IF this historic “no” win is confirmed, look initially for a general selloff in global equities, along with price pressures on the bonds issued by Greece, other peripheral Eurozone economies and emerging markets,” he wrote. Continue reading

Market Perspectives The Monetary Illusion

When such a newsletter comes from an institution such as Guggenheim, the soon-to-come problems America faces couldn’t be more surreal.

 

As economic growth returns again to Europe and Japan, the prospect of a synchronous global expansion is taking hold. Or, then again, maybe not. In a recent research piece published by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, global economic growth, as measured in nominal U.S. dollars, is projected to decline in 2015 for the first time since 2009, the height of the financial crisis.

In fact, the prospect of improvement in economic growth is largely a monetary illusion. No one needs to explain how policymakers have made painfully little progress on the structural reforms necessary to increase global productive capacity and stimulate employment and demand. Lacking the political will necessary to address the issues, central bankers have been left to paper over the global malaise with reams of fiat currency.

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