Germany Profits From Greece’s Hardships

It’s been hammered in here quite often, but always needs a repeat: All roads lead to Berlin as the European project was designed to fail. Having set up Greece to fail was only one part of the larger plan.

 

As Greeks suffer in multiple ways the effects of the economic crisis their country is going through, Germany has profited handsomely from the Greek crisis. This is a conclusion of research carried out by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). The study shows that the Greek debt crisis resulted in a reduction in German bund rates of about 300 basis points (BP). This led to interest savings of more than 100 billion euros ($1.10 billion) (equivalent to more than 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) during the period 2010 to 2015.

Greek debt default is now inevitable, government officials say prepare now for systemic collapse

(NaturalNews) We have been tracking and reporting on the worsening economic situation in Greece now for more than a year, and it appears as though our earlier predictions – that the broke Mediterranean nation would eventually default on bailout loans it received in 2012, under different leadership – will happen.

Reuters reported Monday that Greece will not pay a 1.6 billion-euro installment it owes on its loan that is due June 30, according to a Greek government official who confirmed the default yesterday, further highlighting the overall severity of the country’s financial crisis.

The Global Credit Market Is Now A Lit Powderkeg

And markets are totally unprepared

The financial markets have had a bit of a tough time going anywhere this year.

…

2015 stands in relative contrast to largely upward stock and bond market movement over the past three years.  What’s different this year and what are the risks to investment outcomes ahead?

Goldman Asks, Is The Bundesbank “Ominously” Trying To Sabotage The ECB’s QE?

Goldman previously argued that the weak activity reading rattled a market that had been operating on a core thesis of strong US growth. The resulting uncertainty caused Bund yields and EUR/$ to rise, with the DAX also selling off on the day. Since then, something more ominous has come into play…

One clue has been the communications ping pong from the ECB. On May 18, Executive Board member Coeure said “the rapidity of the reversal in Bund yields is worrisome,” citing it as another example of “extreme volatility in global capital markets.”

ECB President Draghi sent the opposite message on Jun. 3, saying “one lesson is that we should get used to periods of higher volatility,” followed on Jun. 10 by Executive Board member Coeure stating that “the ECB does not intend to counter [Bund] volatility in the short term.”

Goldman took a dim view of all this in our last FX Views, even if a charitable interpretation is that President Draghi basically sent a dovish message on Jun.10 and simply didn’t want to signal “activism” in the face of short-term volatility.

World economy so damaged it may need permanent QE

Markets are realising that the five-and-a-half year recovery since the financial crisis may already be over, says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Combined tightening by the United States and China has done its worst. Global liquidity is evaporating.

What looked liked a gentle tap on the brakes by the two monetary superpowers has proved too much for a fragile world economy, still locked in “secular stagnation”. The latest investor survey by Bank of America shows that fund managers no longer believe the European Central Bank will step into the breach with quantitative easing of its own, at least on a worthwhile scale.

Markets are suddenly prey to the disturbing thought that the five-and-a-half year expansion since the Lehman crisis may already be over, before Europe has regained its prior level of output. That is the chief reason why the price of Brent crude has crashed by 25pc since June. It is why yields on 10-year US Treasuries have fallen to 1.96pc, and why German Bunds are pricing in perma-slump at historic lows of 0.81pc this week.

We will find out soon whether or not this a replay of 1937 when the authorities drained stimulus too early, and set off the second leg of the Great Depression.

Dam breaks in Europe as deflation fears wash over ECB rhetoric

‘We are reaching the end game in Europe. If they don’t launch real QE soon, the consequences are too awful to contemplate,’ warns RBS

A key gauge of deflation risk in Europe is flashing red, dropping to record lows on fears of fresh recession and lack of decisive action by the European Central Bank.

The sudden lurch downwards came as Bank of America warned that France’s debt ratio could rocket to 120pc of GDP within five years, unless the EU authorities take radical steps to reflate the region’s economy. Italy’s debt could threaten 150pc even earlier.

The 5-year/5-year forward swap rate monitored closely by traders plummeted beneath 1.77pc on Friday morning as a global growth scare drove European stock markets to a 12-month low.

“This rate is the most important market signal on the planet right now. Everybody is watching the chart, and it has just gone off a cliff,” said Andrew Roberts, credit chief at RBS.

France rebels against austerity as Europe’s recovery collapses

France’s finance minister sends tremors through European capitals with a defiant warning that his country would no longer try to meet deficit targets

Eurozone strategy is in tatters after economic recovery ground to a halt across the region and France demanded a radical shift in policy, warning that austerity overkill is driving Europe into a depression.

Growth slumped to zero in the second quarter, with Germany contracting by 0.2pc and France once again stuck at zero. Italy is already in a triple-dip recession.

Yields on 10-year German Bunds fell below 1pc for the first time in history, beneath levels seen during the most extreme episodes of deflation in the 19th century. French yields also touch record lows. Much of the eurozone is replicating the pattern seen in Japan as it slid into a deflation trap in the late 1990s.

It is unclear whether tumbling yields are primarily a warning signal of stagnation ahead or a bet by investors that the European Central Bank will soon be forced to launch quantitative easing, buying government bonds across the board.