Global credit crunch WARNING issued on debt bubble as current trends mirror 2008 crash

crash

A indicator tracking credit is following a worrying trend [Getty]

 

WARNING signals have been felt today after a key credit indicator mirrored the same pattern experienced ahead of the financial crisis of 2008, in a eerie sign that the global economy is heading for another downturn.

A key UBS credit impulse which monitors the changes in credit volume has tumbled by six per cent of GDP since last year.

It mirrors the same movement seen before the financial crisis 10 years ago, raising fears the global bubble could be about to burst and another credit crunch. Continue reading

UBS Has Some Very Bad News For The Global Economy

 

At the end of February we first highlighted something extremely troubling for the global “recovery” narrative: according to UBS the global credit impulse – the second derivative of credit growth and arguably the biggest driver behind economic growth and world GDP – had abruptly stalled, as a result of a sudden and unexpected collapse in said impulse. Continue reading

U.S. Weeks Away From A Recession According To Latest Loan Data

 

While many “conventional” indicators of US economic vibrancy and strength have lost their informational and predictive value over the past decade (GDP fluctuates erratically especially in Q1, employment is the lowest this century yet real wage growth is non-existent, inflation remains under the Fed’s target despite its $4.5 trillion balance sheet and so on), one indicator has remained a stubbornly fail-safe marker of economic contraction: since the 1960, every time Commercial & Industrial loan balances have declined (or simply stopped growing), whether due to tighter loan supply or declining demand, a recession was already either in progress or would start soon. Continue reading

JPMorgan Sounds Alarm On Size Of US Debt, Warns Of Financial Crisis

 

After yesterday Goldman mocked Trump’s budget (ironic as it was Trump’s ex-Goldman Chief Economic Advisor who conceived it) and said it had zero chance of being implemented, today it was JPM’s turn to share some purely philosophical thoughts on the shape of future US income and spending, which as we learned yesterday could balance only if the US grows for 10 years at a 3% growth rate, something it has never done, while slashing nearly $4 trillion in in spending, something else it has never done.

What caught our attention in the note by JPM’s Jesse Edgerton was his discussion on the thorniest issue surrounding the US: its unprecedented debt addition, what America’s debt/GDP will look like over the next 30 years, and whether there is any chance it could decline as conservatives in government hope will happen. Continue reading

Erdoğans Transition

BERLIN/ANKARA (Own report) – The German government is negotiating new German Turkish arms deals, as was confirmed by the German Ministry of Economics. Brigitte Zypries (SPD), Minister of the Economy, spoke with the CEO of Rheinmetall weapons manufacturer about upgrading the Turkish Leopard battle tank. “In principle,” such deals with NATO partners “can not to be restricted,” according to Berlin. The German government is also seeking to re-invigorate German-Turkish economic cooperation, to strengthen bilateral relations. Germany does not want to loose Turkey as a “bridge” connecting Germany and the EU to the Middle East. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ankara is not only strengthening the country’s economy and, in the long run, make it one of the world’s top ten economies (“Vision 2023”), he is also planning to transform the country into an independent regional power, forming alliances as it chooses – no longer dependent on the western states. The reorientation of its foreign policy is accompanied by the country’s transformation into a presidential dictatorship. Continue reading

Next recession will hit during Trump’s first two years

 

When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches cold

A recession in the United States is likely to come within the next two years. It is difficult to determine when a recession will occur based solely on economic activity. Economists argue about the precursors to a recession as a matter of course. I am not making the case that one will happen because I believe I am competent to enter that debate. Rather, I am making the case that a recession is increasingly likely simply by looking at the frequency with which they occur.

The last recession started in 2007 and ended in 2009. The one before that started and ended in 2001. The two previous recessions ran from 1990 to 1991 and from 1981 to 1982. In these cases, the time between the end of one recession and the start of another was about eight years on average. Between 1945 and 1981, recessions were much more frequent, but obviously something has happened to extend the time between them. Continue reading

Greece’s pensioners to suffer MORE: Europe demands austerity as debt hits £268 BILLION

Desperate people campaign outside the Hilton hotel as the monied hold talks about their lives

Desperate people campaign outside the Hilton hotel as the monied hold talks about their lives

 

GREEK politicians are being told to go after the country’s already squeezed pensioners as it faces yet more austerity measures.

Germany and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have failed to make an agreement over the conditions of a new bail out package.

And while the country’s debt bubble continues to mount, as it tries to cope with the migrant crisis from 2015, its citizens are being penalised. Continue reading

India, Pakistan to Become Full Fledged SCO Members

Not only is this an economic union forming, but also the next world war axis under construction. It is a Sino-Soviet military counterweight to the global Western hegemony.

 

 

The meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states wrapped up in Astana on April 21. The participants confirmed the unanimous decision to grant full-fledged membership to India and Pakistan at the SCO Astana summit on June 8-9, 2017.

The SCO was established in 2001 as a multi-purpose regional organization active in three main fields: economic, military-political and humanitarian. The SCO members now are Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Iran, Mongolia and Belarus are the SCO observer-countries, while Azerbaijan, Turkey, Sri Lanka, Armenia, Cambodia and Nepal are dialogue partners. Although Russia and China are the most important SCO members, the organization operates by consensus. Continue reading

Merkel yields to Trump: Germany should meet defense spending obligation

German Chancellor Angela Merkel

 

U.S. President Donald Trump is actively pressuring NATO allies to increase their defense spending. Germany currently spends about 1.2 percent of GDP on defense, which Merkel vows to change if she is elected for a fourth term in office this September.

“Obligations have to be fulfilled,” Merkel said at a campaign rally on Feb. 25. “And, others in the world will demand that of us. And, I think they’re right that Germany must uphold its obligations.” Continue reading

Greek Gov’t is 40% of GDP

 

QUESTION:  Hello, I do not understand what Martin say about the fact that the Greek debt doubled when it changed into euro. Indeed, if the currency is twice the value of the old one then all your debt will double as Martin said. However all your assets will double in value too. So it is the same situation as before. I may miss something, could you please explain me what I am missing? Continue reading

Who’s Contributing How Much To Financing NATO?

You will find more statistics at Statista

 

While the U.S. outspends all NATO allies when it comes to overall defence spending in relation to her GDP, Statista’s Dyfed Loesche notes – and President Trump is very well aware of – the U.S. is also the prime direct financer of NATO.

However, direct contribution are more evenly split between the major NATO powers. Germany for example, spends only 1.19 percent of her GDP into defence (USA = 3.61 percent) but seemingly pulls its weight when it comes to direct funding of NATO. This does not include contributions to particular military operations.

As George Friedman recently notedEuropeans must face two facts… Continue reading

Are NATO Members Paying Their Fair Share? (Spoiler Alert: No!)

This is why a European Army is coming.

 

 

Donald Trump is right to say America’s NATO allies aren’t paying their fair share. As Bloomberg notes, the alliance expects its members to spend 2% of GDP on defense; but it’s no secret that most of them don’t… Continue reading

Greece will NEVER recover under Europe’s brutal austerity plans – IMF’s shock warning

Greece’s bailout programme is not credible, says the IMF (Getty)

 

GREECE may never recover from its deep recession and financial crisis thanks to the brutal austerity measures demanded by its European creditors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.

The debt-laden country has been set ambitious economic targets by the European Commission and countries such as Germany, which are not “credible” and will hamper growth, according to the Washington-based organisation.

Only through a “Herculean effort” will Athens be able to meet the demands of its creditors, and through slashing spending in vital services that will derail Greece’s long-term prospects, said the fund. Continue reading

The Next Domino Falls As Predicted… Here’s What Comes Next

 

I recently spent several weeks in Italy, taking the pulse of the country. The Italian referendum on December 4 turned out exactly how I predicted it would.

The “No” vote won in a landslide, with 59% of the vote versus 41% for “Yes,” with a 70% turnout.

The pro-EU Prime Minister promptly announced his resignation after the crushing defeat.

A surging populist party waits in the wings. They’re now likely a matter of months away from taking power and then holding a new referendum on whether Italy should dump the euro and go back to the lira.

If that happens, Italians will likely vote to leave. Continue reading

Donald Trump will lead the US in the right direction. We should take note

Donald Trump will demand European and Asian alliance partners start taking more responsibility for their own security ...

Donald Trump will demand European and Asian alliance partners start taking more responsibility for their own security and paying their way. Photo: Chris O’Meara

 

 

Many working-class Americans, who had traditionally put their faith in the Democratic Party to deliver for them, voted Republican for the first time. In contrast, the Democrats, filled with the false confidence of urban progressives, condescended to call the working-class voter base uneducated and deplorable.

So, what did Americans vote for? How will Donald Trump “Make American Great Again”? Continue reading