Rickards: The Fed Is “Triple Tightening” Into Crisis

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If you have defective and obsolete models, you will produce incorrect analysis and bad policy every time. There’s no better example of this than the Federal Reserve.

The Fed uses equilibrium models to understand an economy that is not an equilibrium system; it’s a complex dynamic system.

The Fed uses the Phillips curve to understand the relationship between unemployment and inflation when 50 years of data say there is no fixed relationship.

The Fed uses “value at risk” modeling based on normally distributed events when the evidence is clear that the degree distribution of risk events is a power curve, not a normal or bell curve. Continue reading

‘The pound is IRRELEVANT’ German financial giant Deutsche Bank in shocking Sterling swipe

Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank branded the pound ‘irrelevant’ [GETTY•ALAMY]

 

Britain’s currency is permanently tarred after the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU), according to one of the bank’s foreign exchange strategists.

As a result, the pound is set to lose its prized status as a leading international safe haven currency, said Robin Winklertold. Continue reading

The British pound shows that US stocks are about to fall hard: Technician

Video available at the source.

 

The euro’s considerable rise against the British pound signals trouble to come for U.S. markets, according to Evercore ISI technical analyst Rich Ross.

The euro and the pound fell against the dollar after the U.K. voters opted to leave the EU, but sterling fell further, hitting three-decade lows against the dollar. According to Ross, the relative weakness in the British currency mirrors the euro’s huge rally against the British pound from 2007 to 2009.

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British pound could hit history-making dollar parity by end of 2016

Debate continues as some analysts predict $1.20-$1.30 could hold for sterling this year

Investors should prepare for the British pound to hit parity with the U.S. dollar by the end of the year or early in 2017, said at least one analyst — and should parity happen, it’ll be a first.

After last week’s surprise U.K. vote to exit the European Union trading bloc, sterling fell more than 12% against the dollar on Friday before trimming some of its unprecedented drop late in the U.S. trading day. But bears regained the upper hand on Monday, sending the currency to a fresh 30-year low at $1.3121. Continue reading

IMF set to approve yuan joining currency basket: sources

Dethroning the U.S. Dollar, one step at a time.

 

International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff are set to give the all-clear for China’s yuan to be included in the lender’s benchmark currency basket, laying the groundwork for a favorable decision by policymakers, people familiar with the discussions said late Sunday.

The IMF’s executive board is scheduled to decide in November on putting the yuan on a par with the dollar, yen, euro and pound sterling and a key factor will be its performance against a checklist of technical criteria, as assessed by IMF staff. Continue reading

Jim Willie: Syria, Pipeline Politics, OPEC & the US Dollar

Syria holds the key to peace, a new chapter in history and the dawn of a new age. Without oil being traded in Dollars, the US will collapse back into the stone age. With an attack on Syria the US might also collapse, should for example, a host of other nations (i.e. BRIC nations) retaliate by dropping the Dollar. This article highlights exactly what hangs in the balance and why Syria is the focus.

Syria is also only a stepping stone into Iran as it was already pre-planned to invade seven countries in five years. This was highlighted by then-General Wesley Clark in the video below. However, Iran might take the iniative by skipping that step and might set the entire Middle East on fire should Syria be attacked.

Syria is about the last gasp for the Petro-Dollar, the emergence of energy pipeline geopolitics, the rise of the NatGas Co-op, the new dominance of Russian Gazprom, the eclipse of OPEC, the fall of the house of Saud, and a grand adjustment process in global commerce and banking.

The NatGas Co-op eclipses OPEC and ushers in a new era.

Refer to trade settlement outside the USDollar and diversification away from USTreasury Bond reserves management. It took some time to realize it, but the Cyprus bank incident was a misdirected attack against Gazprom. It failed. The entire Arab Spring movement, an ambitious disruptive project waged with foolhardy ambitions, has turned on itself. Egypt fell, its US puppet discharged. The entire North African region will be in flames soon. The USGovt interfered with a grand industrialization project for European industry, to be placed on North Africa intended to take advantage of cheaper labor, available minerals, nearby resources, and easy shipping. The resentment of Europe will show up in the future. The Middle East and Persian Gulf region is shifting its salute to Russia & China, as the noisy sectarian battles have been a common fixture since long ago. Bahrain has erupted. Saudi is clamping down and converting into an Islamic police state to create the Iran-Saudi repressive bobsey twins. Chaos is the longstanding objective of the USGovt in foreign policy infection, no change in decades.

Syria is about a lot of things, most of which are volatile, many unsolvable. To be sure, the naval port of Tartus is valuable for the Russian Military, always eager to wrest a seaport. Like Lebanon, Syria is a hotbed stronghold for HezBollah, never to be taken lightly. They are mortal enemies to Israel, whose nations have exchanged covert violence for years. Syria might have tight relations with the Shiites of Iran, even some in Iraq. However, Syria represents the crossroads of many important shifting geopolitical roadways that pertain to the global financial structure and commercial systems. Syria is the tipping point for a Grand Global Paradigm Shift. It is the last stand for the Anglo Banker world. Syria will not go easily into the Russian camp, into the Gazprom fold, into the European energy market sphere. For if it does, the entire USDollar system of commerce and the USTreasury Bond system of reserves management will fall by the wayside and open a new era with Eastern dominance. But the Western powers cannot stop it. Clouds of whatever type do not halt pipeline flow, nor pipeline geopolitics. Continue reading