(Photo Credit: Tech Sgt. Vernon Young Jr./U.S. Air Force)
As the world’s leaders prepare for Buenos Aires G20 Summit, Cui Tiankai hints all-out war could be looming.
Although both sides are going to this week’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires hoping for a deal to end the escalating trade war between them, Chinese and U.S. officials have conceded such a deal is highly unlikely despite the looming signs of dire consequences if they fail to do so. Continue reading
The USS Harry Truman with a strike force of 5 guided missile warships were on their way on Sunday, Nov. 18 to waters off the Syrian coast. They entered the Mediterranean on Friday, Nov. 16, just as the Russian Middle East fleet wound up a series of search and destroy exercises against enemy submarines and warships. They were led by two Russian guided missile frigates Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen, armed with Kalibr-NK cruise ship-to-shore missiles. Russia air force helicopters took part in the drills. By week’s end, there were 8 Russian warships in the eastern Mediterranean. Continue reading
The Washington Post’s Josh Rogin has revealed stunning comments issued by Vice President Mike Pence during a conversation between the two aboard Air Force Two as the VP traveled for an official trip to Asia this week, where he landed in Singapore for regional summits highlighting Indo-Pacific security, trade and investment.
Pence reportedly said the White House is prepared to undertake take dramatic policy changes regarding China if Beijing does not capitulate to its demands as the trade war continues. In addition to the issue of tariffs, pressing security issues include the US demanding Chinese cessation of what’s reported to be widespread intellectual property theft and refusal to recognized America freedom of navigation through and above the South China Sea. Continue reading
Washington and Brussels are locking horns in a dispute over currency, tax and trade [Getty]
THE EUROPEAN Central Bank has accused the US of manipulating exchange rates as tensions between Brussels and Washington continue to escalate wildly.
The ECB is concerned the US is attempting to exert “political influence” on exchange rates, with the issue set to explode into outright confrontation at an upcoming G20 meeting.
The eurozone bank said it was “certainly concerned” by perceived attempts to influence the exchange rate in favour of the US dollar. Continue reading
Screen shot from CCTV News.
The Belt and Road Initiative is the vanguard for Beijing’s reach for global power. It may not work, given all the imponderables of a project on this scale, not to mention conflicting interests with nations along its route. But at least the Chinese are showing the kind of social energy necessary to achieve great things. Do Americans still have that trait?
The state-owned press in China was all aglow about President Xi Jinping’s address to the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany. Xinhua proclaimed how “Many overseas experts and scholars have praised” it. Towards the end of his remarks, President Xi brought up his pet project; recreating the ancient Silk Road that once linked Imperial China to Europe through Central Asia and the Middle East. He proclaimed, “Commitment of the Belt and Road Forum is highly compatible with the goal of the G20” and should be seen as part of a “new and inclusive globalization.” The Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation had been held in Beijing, May 14-15. It attracted 29 heads of state (including Russian President Vladimir Putin) and representatives of 130 other countries (including the U.S.), plus the leaders of 70 international organizations, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres. Continue reading
Russia’s Putin has never taken his eye off the ball. His ambition is not global hegemony or European conquest. Putin seeks what Russia has always sought: regional hegemony and a set of buffer states in eastern Europe and central Asia that can add to Russia’s strategic depth.
It is strategic depth — the capacity to suffer massive invasions and still survive due to an ability to retreat to a core position and stretch enemy supply lines — that enabled Russia to defeat both Napoleon and Hitler. Putin also wants the modicum of respect that would normally accompany that geostrategic goal.
Understanding Putin is not much more complicated than that. Continue reading
As an observation, a lot of news pieces keep mentioning 2018 of late as a turning point for cash and a move towards either a new global currency or electronic currency. It’s a reminder of what The Economist put out in 1988:
QUESTION: Dear Marty,
What could be the true intentions of Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi in India cancelling the currency overnight. I have been suspecting some foul in his demonetisation move but cannot correctly understand why he did it? Counterfeit currency, Black money, prevent terrorism all his publicised motives have been shown false. If this move is any kind of scandal and he has tarnished India image in long run or short run. Almost 90% analysts in India are saying it is a good move in the long run ( 2-3 years) and pain in short term. Is this correct? Continue reading
The two nations pledge to work together in hosting upcoming G20 and BRICS summits, and to cooperate more on economic and security matters
China and India vowed to enhance their bilateral ties and to cooperate in hosting the upcoming Group of 20 (G20) summit in Hangzhou as well as another meeting between emerging-market nations.
The pledge was made at a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Saturday. Continue reading
All economies are in freefall, however the U.S. is the safe haven (for the moment) because of a rising currency and still having the world’s ‘strongest’ economy, which is now in all reality propped up by hot air. The U.S. Dollar’s rise, as the article states, will wreck the rest of the world economy before its own demise comes around the corner. Pay attention to the signs. We’re riding the roller coaster to the top before the steep drop.
It’s also true that the Petrodollar is dead. It’s no longer a factor in what keeps the U.S. Dollar alive. It’s already on the chopping block now that this anchor has been removed and is only a matter of time before the axe comes down. That was the last foundation keeping the USD secure.
Because of the wealth of the information found in this article, most of the source will remain archived here.
QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,
(a) You say that the world is losing confidence in governments and I do not question that for a minute.
(b) BUT you also say that the dollar will strengthen for various probable sounding reasons, which it is presently doing. (whereas many think it will collapse).
For the collapse theory: it appears the petro dollar is being dumped which bodes ill for the dollar remaining the prime reserve currency. ——– does not think it will and that SDR’s will replace it. Surely as this eminent position of the petro dollar declines, there will be further debasement? (loss of purchasing power) – the opposite of a stronger dollar. Continue reading
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You have indeed sparked my curiosity. With both the velocity of money and the trading volume declining since 1998, this seems to be a very dangerous position and your work is really eye opening. I read your Transactional Banking and it seems that this has changed everything for the worse. Your Big Bang seems to have been on target starting with 2015.75 as that was the peak in government and we have seen a further decline in economic growth. With trading volume bottoming in 2014 and your War Cycle turning up also in 2014, the picture is starting to come into focus. Your warning of a Phase Transition building is also starting to make sense for the volume is at the lows not the highs and it appears you are forecasting a big rush out of government debt into private. I think I am beginning to see the future and this looks crazy indeed. Am I on the right track? Continue reading
On April 12, 2016, the website of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club published an article by Fyodor Lukyanov, academic director of the Valdai Discussion Club, chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs journal. In his article, titled “The End of the G8 Era: Russia Does Not Need Western Hierarchy,” Lukyanov argues that there is no reason to revive the G8 after Russia’s 2014 suspension from it following the Russian annexation of Crimea. Noting that “the G8 reflected a certain period of history when Russia really wanted to be integrated into the so-called Extended West,” he adds that since Russia’s suspension from the G8, it has become clear that Russia does not “fit into the Western community.” Continue reading
As it goes, the alleged Shanghai Accord was a side meeting of only a handful of economic policymakers (in Shanghai – hence the name) that took place concurrently with the G20 Summit on Feb. 26.Attendees of the clandestine powwow included U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew, Christine Lagarde from the IMF, Mario Draghi from the ECB, and central bank and finance ministry counterparts from China and Japan.
The chief reason for the Shanghai Accord was to allow these choice global policymakers a chance to plan the demise of the U.S. dollar.
That’s right, Yellen and Lew are in on it. Continue reading
Risks to global growth have increased since November and world leaders have little left in their fiscal and monetary arsenals to mitigate the threat, Moody’s has warned.
In its quarterly Global Macro Outlook 2016-17 report released Thursday, the ratings agency said that growth prospects were being hammered by China’s slowdown, a slump in commodity prices and tighter financing conditions in some emerging markets.
Over the past year, we have frequently warned that the biggest financial risk (if not social, which in the form of soaring worker unrest is a far greater threat to Chinese civilization) threatening China, is its runaway non-performing loans, which at anywhere between 10 and 20% of total bank assets, mean that China is one chaotic default away from collapsing into the post “Minsky Moment” singlarity where it can no longer rollover its bad debt, leading to a debt supernova and full financial collapse. And as China’s total leverage keeps rising, and according to at least one estimate is now a gargantuan 350% of GDP (incidentally the same as the US), the threat of a rollover “glitch” gets exponentially greater. Continue reading
The Russian bear stamps out terror, but Erdogan prepares to stab it in the back (Sputniknews.com, November 24, 2015)
The Russian-Turkish conflict is reflected not only in the military, political and economic tension between the two countries but also in the Russian media, which expresses extreme hostility towards Turkey and its president.
This is evident, for example, in articles in English published recently on the Russian websites NEO[1] and Pravda.[2] One of these articles cites “a leading military expert” as saying that, in the event of a war between the two countries, “Russia will have to use nuclear weapons immediately, because the existence of the nation will be at stake.” The others focus on Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, presenting him as an enabler and supporter of the Islamic State (ISIS) and calling him a “madman” and a “murderer.” One even suggests that Turkey was “a prime mover in the [November 13] Paris attack.”
The following are excerpts from the articles. Continue reading
Global Geopolitics 