Is U.S. Geopolitical Strategy Experiencing a Monumental Shift?

 

The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for both nations, a team of mine at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has concluded after analyzing the historical record. In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500 years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but also the challenged.

– From Graham Allison’s article: The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?

For the past two years, my geopolitical assumption has been that the Trump administration would more or less continue along with the reckless, shortsighted, and disastrous neocon/neoliberal interventionist foreign policy of the past two decades focused on undeclared regime change and proxy wars across the world, especially the Middle East. Given his strange obsession with Iran, I figured he’d start a conflict there and that this conflict would end up a bigger disaster than Iraq.

In the Name of Europe

BERLIN (Own report) – The first telephone call between the German chancellor and the US president was flanked by appeals for the EU to close ranks. Following Saturday’s call, both parties declared that they would “deepen” their bilateral relations. However, Berlin is preparing to assert its own interests offensively vis-à-vis Russia – also with the EU’s help. This is why the EU must finally “close ranks,” as German politicians are demanding. On Saturday, on his first foreign visit as German Foreign Minister, Sigmar Gabriel met his Parisian counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault. His vigorous insistence “that Germany and France demonstrate they have common positions on nearly all issues” was also aimed at closing the EU’s ranks. While Gabriel was visiting France, the seven southern European countries’ heads of states and governments – including the French president – were meeting in Lisbon to determine their own positions, also regarding their economic policy. In view of British Prime Minster Theresa May’s recent visit to the USA, observers note that the Brexit is creating “a second geopolitical pole in Europe,” and “for Germany, which has become accustomed to speak in the name of Europe, […] this is not a favorable development.”

President Obama’s ‘Tense’ Trip Through Asia Shows The Region’s Pivot Away From United States Towards China

President Obama’s travel to China for the G20 Summit appears to show the growing trend of countries pulling away from the United States to acknowledge other powers in the region that could fill in the gap, such as Russia.

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The U.S.-led coalition’s end-goal continues to be that Bashar al-Assad must be forced out of of Syria. But unless the United States is willing to engage in a massive war with Russia, President Obama has decided to take the route of diplomacy in order to help target terrorists instead.

IMF Concedes Central Banks Are Doomed

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned at the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, that in the face of crises, the refusal to reform how things are functioning will lead to economic weakness in the global economy. “The latest data show subdued activity, less growth in trade and a very low inflation, suggesting an even weaker global economic growth this year,” the IMF told G20 leaders.

Indeed, we are looking at 2016 coming in as the fifth consecutive year in which global growth will be below the average of 3.7% which prevailed between 1990 and 2007. The IMF said: “Without strong political countermeasures the world could suffer a disappointing growth” for several years to come. Christine Lagarde told world leaders: “Even in the longer term the outlook remains disappointing.”

G20 Conspiracy Theory: The Secret “Shanghai Accord” to Kill the U.S. Dollar

As it goes, the alleged Shanghai Accord was a side meeting of only a handful of economic policymakers (in Shanghai – hence the name) that took place concurrently with the G20 Summit on Feb. 26.Attendees of the clandestine powwow included U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew, Christine Lagarde from the IMF, Mario Draghi from the ECB, and central bank and finance ministry counterparts from China and Japan.

The chief reason for the Shanghai Accord was to allow these choice global policymakers a chance to plan the demise of the U.S. dollar.

That’s right, Yellen and Lew are in on it.

Navy chief warns of Russian military expansion in Australia’s neighbourhood

Australia’s Navy chief has warned that Russia’s military will “significantly” increase its influence in this region over the next few years, as former Soviet figures in Moscow try to re-establish the nation’s once-powerful Cold War position.

In a wide-ranging address to the Lowy Institute, Vice Admiral Tim Barrett reflected on the Russian Navy’s deployment of four warships near Australia last year, ahead of the G20 summit in Brisbane.

Putin heading to Iran for first time in eight years

Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Tehran and attend a summit of countries exporting gas, Reuters quoted his aide Yuri Ushakov as saying on Friday.

Putin has not visited Iran since 2007 and while in Tehran is expected to hold talks with the Islamic Republic’s President Hassan Rouhani, Ushakov said.

David Cameron warns that second global crash is looming

PM says ‘red warning lights are flashing’ against a backdrop of instability and uncertainty, as G20 summit draws to a close

David Cameron has issued a stark message that “red warning lights are flashing on the dashboard of the global economy” in the same way as when the financial crash brought the world to its knees six years ago.

Writing in the Guardian at the close of the G20 summit in Brisbane, Cameron says there is now “a dangerous backdrop of instability and uncertainty” that presents a real risk to the UK recovery, adding that the eurozone slowdown is already having an impact on British exports and manufacturing.