Berlin WEC Nov 28th/29th

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Unquestionably, there is now an overwhelming majority of people who are predicting A Stock Market Crash In The Fall Of 2015. Most are centered on our target date plus or minus a few days. We are in a period where the central banks are against the wall and are indeed defenseless against any market implosion. Continue reading

It’s All Connected – Just Open Your Eyes

COMMENT: Hi Marty,

I must say your analysis of the dow for the last six months is simply mind blowing.

Everything you said has been accurate. You are right that most will not get what your saying because they are stuck in a linear world – not a dynamic world.

You did say markets would churn into May. You were SPOT on. I guess what throws most is when you say we could get a high in May/June or September. They can’t process the dynamism. They guys would be good candidates for government work where they can just try control everything.

Indeed I am looking forward to the biggest “mind twisting” trade of the century, as you say. It is looking at this stage like a May/June high – everything is truly connected. You have opened my eyes forever.

REPLY: It is so hard for many to understand how everything is connected and to separate me from the computer. The vast majority who disagree always make this personal rather than the analysis. The churning of the Dow until May was connected to the dollar rise and the collapse of the Euro on just one level. If you would normally see a decline that everyone was calling for in the US market, they missed the currency play which would provide steady support for the Dow. Continue reading

Report: ‘Geopolitics Is Back’ for 2015

The year 2015 will be rife with conflict and turmoil to a degree not seen in decades. That’s the forecast from Eurasia Group, a consulting and research firm based in the United States that focuses on examining the affects of political events and trends on international markets.

“Geopolitics is back,” says the firm’s Top Risks 2015 report, published on January 5. “As 2015 begins, political conflict among the world’s great powers is in play more than at any time since the end of the Cold War,” the report noted. “Russia is lashing out, the Middle East is fragmenting, Islamic radicalism is expanding, and Europe faces challenges on all of these fronts.” Continue reading

Bill Gross Calls It: 2015 Is Going to Be Terrible

Bill Gross, bond king, ousted executive, self-styled poet of the markets, has a bold, depressing prediction for 2015, and he’s not couching it in any of his usual metaphor: “The good times are over,” he wrote in his January investment outlook note. By the end of 2015, he goes on, “there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes.”

Gross is putting himself way out on a limb: Not one of Wall Street’s professional forecasters predict the S&P 500 will drop in 2015. Their average estimate calls for an 8.1 percent rise. And while the global economy looks weak, the U.S. has been heating up, with GDP up 5 percent in the third quarter. Continue reading

China defence budget to double over 5 years

China’s defence budget will double between 2011 and 2015 and outstrip the combined spending of all other key defence markets in the Asia-Pacific region, global research group IHS said Tuesday.

China’s defence budget stood at $119.8 billion last year and will rise to $238.2 billion in 2015, marking a combined annual growth rate of 18.75 percent during the period, the US-based IHS said in a forecast.

The 2015 figure exceeds the combined total of the next 12 biggest defence budgets in the region, forecast to hit $232.5 billion, and will be almost four times second-placer Japan’s defence spending that year, it added.

Full article: China defence budget to double over 5 years (Defence Talk)