ALBERT EDWARDS: Chinese devaluation is leading to ‘a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008’

Many experts continue saying the second half of September 2015 and the first half of October 2015 is the beginning of a major and imminent turning point for the world economy — and much graver than what was seen in 2008 or the Great Depression. For example, former Reagan advisor Martin Armstrong and his forecasting model that has never gone wrong are predicting a hit in the first week of October 2015, or 2015.75.

See also: The Shift in Public Confidence: 2015.75

Batten down the hatches.

 

Societe Generale Economist Albert Edwards might have finally out-beared himself. He says the China devaluation is a step towards “a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008.”

In his latest note, Edwards says the Chinese currency devaluation is the beginning of a period of serious foreign exchange weaknesses in Asia. Continue reading

Why Europe Won’t Let Greece Go

Everyone’s talking about Europe’s economy. But at the heart of the crisis is a very different problem.

Greece is on the brink yet again. It has to pay the International Monetary Fund (imf) us$1.7 billion by the end of the month. And that’s the start of a gauntlet of loan repayments—it owes €10 billion by the end of September. Meanwhile, it has not agreed to a deal to get that money. With time running out, European officials are reportedly preparing for a catastrophe. “The Greek saga is finally reaching its climax, we think,” said Morgan Stanley’s head of foreign exchange strategy.

What will happen? Will Greece leave the euro? Will it submit to Europe’s bailout conditions? Will it trigger a financial crisis? I don’t know. But I do know that in the long term Greece is going to remain under the European Union’s influence.

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Deutsche Bank Exodus Continues As Real Estate Chief Leaves For Blackstone

Have you ever wondered which big bank after Lehman Brothers would be next to fall? This is why you see so much shuffling from within and people resigning suddenly and going to work for another institution.

Moreover, with over $72 TRILLIONyes trillion, in derivatives exposure — we have likely found it. To put this tiny bit of risk in perspective, the GDP of Germany itself is a mere humble $2.7 trillion.

This is why Germany is also worried in this high stakes game of chicken. If Greece goes, Deutsche Bank who’s heavily invested will go, and creates the possibility of bringing the country with it. From there you can only see how such a scenario would spread to the rest of the world.

 

Earlier this month, Deutsche Bank’s co-CEOs Anshu Jain and Jürgen Fitschen were shown the door (well, technically they resigned, but with shareholder support plummeting amid skepticism about both financial targets and ongoing legal problems, it’s easy to read between the lines). The bank, which has paid out more than $9 billion over the past three years alone to settle legacy litigation, has become something of a poster child for corrupt corporate culture. Consider the following rundown of the legal problems the bank faced as of the beginning of its 2015 fiscal year:

We are currently the subject of regulatory and criminal industry-wide investigations relating to interbank offered rates, as well as civil actions. Due to a number of uncertainties, including those related to the high profile of the matters and other banks’ settlement negotiations, the eventual outcome of these matters is unpredictable, and may materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition and reputation.  Continue reading

There Will Be No 25-Year Depression

What we have here is not a failure of Capitalism, but a failure of experimenting with Socialism that is now resulting in the breakdown of society.

As geopolitical analyst and expert, JR Nyquist, once put it, America has fallen victim to Crony Capitalism, which is different than Capitalism itself.

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2015/05/Crony-Capitalism-Pyramid.jpg

How it all works in crony heaven – until it doesn’t anymore – via bastiatinstitute.org

 

 

Good and Bad News

Today, we have bad news and good news. The good news is that there will be no 25-year recession. Nor will there be a depression that will last the rest of our lifetimes.

The bad news: It will be much worse than that. On Monday, the Dow rose another 43 points. Gold seems to be working its way back to the $1,200 level, where it feels most comfortable.

Old People Are Dead Wood

First, people are getting older. Especially in Europe and Japan, but also in China, Russia and the US. As we’ve described many times, as people get older, they change. They stop producing and begin consuming. Continue reading

Fed: All calendar references removed

Following through on indications in March, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday offered no changes to its zero interest rate policy.

Not only did it not hike rates, it also removed all hints for what may lie ahead. Calendar references were deleted completely from the post-meeting statement.

The FOMC indicated after its March meeting that a rate hike in April was unlikely. The U.S. central bank has kept its key funds rate anchored near zero since late 2008, amid the financial crisis.

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The Next Round of the Great Crisis is at Our Doorstep

The next round of the financial crisis is at our doorstep.

Central Bankers bet the financial system that their academic theories would work, despite the countless real-world examples showing that printing money does not generate growth. Continue reading

The Death of Cash

Could negative interest rates create an existential crisis for money itself?

JPMorgan Chase recently sent a letter to some of its large depositors telling them it didn’t want their stinking money anymore. Well, not in those words. The bank coined a euphemism: Beginning on May 1, it said, it will charge certain customers a “balance sheet utilization fee” of 1 percent a year on deposits in excess of the money they need for their operations. That amounts to a negative interest rate on deposits. The targeted customers—mostly other financial institutions—are already snatching their money out of the bank. Which is exactly what Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon wants. The goal is to shed $100 billion in deposits, and he’s about 20 percent of the way there so far. Continue reading

J.P. Morgan’s Dimon warns next crisis will bring even more volatility

It’s not a matter of ‘if’, but ‘when’… and here’s your latest confirmation.

 

LONDON (MarketWatch) — You ain’t seen nothing yet, when it comes to market wreckage from a financial crisis, according to J.P. Morgan boss Jamie Dimon.

In his annual letter to shareholders, the bank’s chief executive warned “there will be another crisis” — and the market reaction could be even more volatile, because regulations are now tougher.

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Athens will turn to Moscow rather than bow to Berlin, says minister

London: Greece’s Defence Minister has warned that his country will seek money from Russia and China to avert a financial crisis rather than yield to austerity demands from Europe, risking a dangerous political rift with the leading European Union powers.

Panos Kammenos, head of the Independent Greeks party in the ruling coalition, said Greece would rather leave the euro if membership means submitting to a “Europe under German domination.” Continue reading

Europe will Move Closer to Russia & Greece will Exit Euro

The arrogance of the Obama Administration is tearing the world apart just as the arrogance of the Athenian Empire. In both cases, that self-centeredism of Athens turned her allies to the other side – Sparta. The USA is doing exactly the same thing because human nature never changes. The sanctions were stupid for they only hurt Europeans, not Americans. It sent record numbers of European farmers into financial crisis for no reason whatsoever. Continue reading

IMF Chief Says Global Economy Faces ‘Very Strong’ Headwinds

Strong headwinds from weak investment, substantial debt burdens and high unemployment are preventing a pickup in global economic growth despite a strengthening U.S. recovery and tumbling oil prices, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said.

A healthier U.S. and cheaper energy “won’t suffice to actually accelerate the growth or the potential for growth in the rest of the world,” the head of the emergency lender to nations said in a speech Thursday at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.

“If the global economy is weak, on its knees, it’s not going to help,” said Ms. Lagarde in remarks previewing the IMF’s latest forecasts for the global economy due out on Monday. Continue reading

Bank of America warns of ‘lethal’ damage to China’s financial system as deflation deepens

‘Deflation, Devaluation, and Default’ loom in China this year. The denouement for Shanghai’s bourse will not be pretty, says the US bank.

China is at mounting risk of a financial crisis this year as growth sputters and deflationary pressures trigger a wave of defaults, Bank of America has warned.

The US lender told clients that a confluence of forces are coming together that threaten to chill the speculative mania on the Shanghai stock exchange and to expose the underlying fragility of China’s $26 trillion edifice of debt.

“A credit crunch is highly probable,” said the bank in a report entitled “Deflation, Devaluation, and Default”, written by David Cui and Tracy Tian.

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Déjà Vu — The 1930s are coming back.

As with the previous rare occasions where a full article was posted due to its importance, this will remain no exception. Please see the source website for more similar articles.

 

What happens after a globe-shaking financial crisis? We are stumbling through one right now, and we all want to know what we are in for next. Fortunately—and unfortunately—this situation is precedented.

Early last century, the globe’s First World War extinguished lives, torched economies and left Europe smoldering with grievances. Afterward, the world was rocked by the most violent financial earthquake in modern times—the Great Depression.

The nations were churning: brutal dictators were rising, anti-Semitism was becoming mainstream, civil war erupted in Spain, Japan invaded Manchuria, Italy invaded Ethiopia. But instead of facing the challenges, Britain and America turned increasingly inward, focusing on their own wounded economies, slashing their militaries and pointedly ignoring the world outside.

Decades after World War III, will historians be writing something similar? The nations were churning. Radical dictators were rising, anti-Semitism was becoming mainstream, Germany conquered the Balkans, Russia invaded Georgia, civil wars erupted in the Middle East, China built a military powerhouse, a new strongman arose in Russia, a crafty emperor arose in Europe. But instead of facing the challenges, Britain and America turned increasingly inward, focusing on their wounded economies, slashing their militaries and pointedly ignoring the world outside.

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The $75 trillion shadow hanging over the world

Global shadow banking assets rose to a record $75 trillion (£46.5 trillion) last year, new analysis shows.

The value of risky investment products, mortgage-backed securities and other non-bank entities increased by $5 trillion to $75 trillion in 2013, according to the Financial Stability Board (FSB).

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Uncle Sam’s $8 Trillion Annual Debt Churn: Why Washington Is Pertrified Of Honest Interest Rates

I know that headline sounds completely outrageous.  But it is actually true.  The U.S. government is borrowing about 8 trillion dollars a year, and you are about to see the hard numbers that prove this.  When discussing the national debt, most people tend to only focus on the amount that it increases each 12 months.  And as I wrote about recently, the U.S. national debt has increased by more than a trillion dollars in fiscal year 2014.

But that does not count the huge amounts of U.S. Treasury securities that the federal government must redeem each year.  When these debt instruments hit their maturity date, the U.S. government must pay them off.  This is done by borrowing more money to pay off the previous debts.  In fiscal year 2013, redemptions of U.S. Treasury securities totaled $7,546,726,000,000 and new debt totaling $8,323,949,000,000 was issued.  The final numbers for fiscal year 2014 are likely to be significantly higher than that.

So why does so much government debt come due each year? Continue reading