The United States is poised to raise rates much more sharply than markets expect, risking a potential storm for global asset prices and a dollar shock for much of the developing world, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
The IMF fears a “cascade of disruptive adjustments” as the US Federal Reserve finally pulls the trigger for the first time in eight years, ending an era of cheap and abundant dollar liquidity for the international system.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — So-called black-swan events are by definition highly improbable. But that hasn’t stopped the economists at Société Générale from attempting to identify a few scenarios that could blindside the market.
In its ‘Global Economic Outlook’ report released on Monday, SocGen listed six such unlikely events that pose the biggest threats. Those include a hard economic landing in China and the possibility of a referendum in the U.K. on whether to remain in the European Union. Continue reading
The next crisis will be the currency pegs against the dollar. Here we have pegs from Hong Kong to the Middle East. We will have the same problem for as the dollar is driven higher, thanks to the implosion in the Euroland, these nations will import DEFLATION from a rising dollar. This will break their backs and force pegs to collapse around the world. Keep in mind that this will unfold probably after 2015.75 and help to spiral the world economy into the worst depression in centuries. Start preparing for a rainy day. Continue reading
Another very common objection raised to the Economic Warfare reality is based on the misperception that China is so connected to our economy that “they” would never harm us. [Of course, these are the same people who said that America would never lose our Triple-A Credit Rating.] The idea that “the Chinese” would never harm us is ridiculous on its face, given the proven reality that there are Chinese who continually hack our systems, manipulate and undermine our markets. There is ample evidence of that. The whole concept is rather naive, assuming that all Chinese are the same. Certainly the average businessperson in China might not want harm to our economy. But, how about the PLA (People’s Liberation Army)? We addressed this in our posts titled “Which Chinese?” and “Which Chinese Part 2.”
“Here in the U.S. you may hear many people worry that the Chinese government might stop buying American T-Bills. I think those fears are vastly overblown. The economic situation between China and the U.S. is the financial version of mutually assured destruction…”
Basically, this theory is based on the idea that the Chinese hold so much in dollar debt that they couldn’t afford to see the dollar go down. Here’s the problem. The military doesn’t care. They have a much longer view of things than the next quarter’s export sales. The smug response of those who believe China needs us so much that they must always stay friends is just another example of American arrogance. Now, there is further evidence of what we have been saying all along. We have no idea about what China really holds in dollar debt. They have so many ways to obscure their holdings that we can’t ever be certain. This from the March 2, 2012 Wall Street Journal cover story (Beijing Diversifies Away From U.S. Dollar):
Full article: But Aren’t We Joined at the Hip with China? (Kevin Freeman / Global Economic Warfare)