Turkey, ‘Axis of Gold’ and the End of US Dollar Hegemony

 

Introduction

With a ‘Hard Brexit’ looking more likely and Trump’s inauguration this week, 2017 is well and truly under way.

What we expect the year to hold is probably not even half of what it really will. But from what we know, the upcoming French and German elections, referendums, geopolitical crises, steps towards reverse globalisation and a third of global government debt yielding negative interest rates, governments are already prompting central banks and investors to turn to the one asset that has survived millennia of financial and monetary crises.

One that is highly liquid and convertible into other currencies – gold. Continue reading

China Dumps Treasuries: Foreign Central Banks Liquidate A Record $403 Billion In US Paper

 

One month ago, when we last looked at the Fed’s update of Treasuries held in custody, we noted something troubling: the number had continued to drop sharply, declining by another $14 billion in one week, and pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.788 trillion, the lowest since 2012. One month later, we refresh this chart and find that in last week’s update, there is finally some good news: foreign central banks finally bought some US paper held in the Fed’s custody account, which following months of liquidation, rose over the past two weeks by $23 billion, the biggest two-week advance since November of 2016, pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.816 trillion, the highest since early October.

That was the good news, and we use the term loosely in as much as the custody account can be used as a proxy of foreign buying, which according to most rates watchers, it can. Continue reading

China Dumping More Than Treasuries as U.S. Stocks Join Fire Sale

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For the past year, Chinese selling of Treasuries has vexed investors and served as a gauge of the health of the world’s second-largest economy.

The People’s Bank of China, owner of the world’s biggest foreign-exchange reserves, burnt through 20 percent of its war chest since 2014, dumping about $250 billion of U.S. government debt and using the funds to support the yuan and stem capital outflows.

While China’s sales of Treasuries have slowed, its holdings of U.S. equities are now showing steep declines. Continue reading

China’s Stealth Devaluation Continues Despite Lew Blasting “Unacceptable” FX Practices

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The US Dollar has traded within a relatively “stable” band against the offshore Yuan for much of the last six weeks…

But when compared to the collapse of the Yuan “basket” – as PBOC devalued against the rest of the major trading partners – the ‘stealth’ devaluation is obvious… Continue reading

2016 – US dollar warning : the beautiful isolation of the « global reference currency »

Note for our readers — Following our monetary research work under the form of a surveillance of several months, our team is worried again about the US dollar. After a calming two year time, the dollar is heckled again within today’s new multi monetary world. Surprised by the conclusions of its own analyses, presented here below exclusively to you, our team of experts wishes to warn you, the GEAB readers, about the possible danger threatening the dollar. 2016 could very well be the year when the dollar wall will fall…

To explain the current financial turmoil, all official accusing fingers are pointing to a single guilty party: China, the ideal guilty player, the same way Greece and the euro currency were at their time. It is true that evidence seems to be on the side of those accusing fingers, due to the recently unstable Shanghai stock market and its low values. Continue reading

A Chinese Banker Explains Why There Is No Way Out

Over the past year, we have frequently warned that the biggest financial risk (if not social, which in the form of soaring worker unrest is a far greater threat to Chinese civilization) threatening China, is its runaway non-performing loans, which at anywhere between 10 and 20% of total bank assets, mean that China is one chaotic default away from collapsing into the post “Minsky Moment” singlarity where it can no longer rollover its bad debt, leading to a debt supernova and full financial collapse. And as China’s total leverage keeps rising, and according to at least one estimate is now a gargantuan 350% of GDP (incidentally the same as the US), the threat of a rollover “glitch” gets exponentially greater. Continue reading

China Orders Banks in Some Hubs to Limit Dollar Buying

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s foreign exchange regulator has ordered banks in some trading hubs to limit dollar purchases this month, three people with direct knowledge said on Friday, in the latest attempt to stem capital outflows.

Continue reading

China currency war fears wipe $2.6 trillion off global markets in four days

Equities suffer their worst start to a calendar year since the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000 as fears over China’s exchange rate grow

Global stocks markets have seen $2.5 trillion wiped off their value in just four trading days, the worst start to a calendar year since the aftermath of the dotcom crash in 2000.

Stocks suffered another tumultuous day of trading gripped by renewed fears that the world’s second largest economy was engineering a devaluation of its currency.

Continue reading

China ‘Stealth’ Devaluation Continues – Yuan Plunges For 6th Day, Default Risk Soars, Fosun Bonds Crash

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USDCNY broke above 6.4500 for the first time since the August devaluation, extending its post-IMF plunge to 6 days. This is the largest and longest streak of weakness since March 2014 as China seems to have taken the SDR-inclusion as blessing to devalue its currency drip by drip. Default risk is once again stomping higher as CDS surge from 94bps to 112bps (2-month highs). The biggest news in China tonight is the disappearance of Fosun International’s Chairman, China’s 17th richest man (and the collapse in the company’s bonds, since stocks are suspended). Continue reading

China boosts gold reserves for 5th straight month

Taking advantage of the low price of gold, in November China boosted its gold holdings for the fifth consecutive month, the fastest growth rate since June, the central bank reported Tuesday.

However, November’s $87 billion decline in total foreign exchange reserves was the country’s biggest drop since August’s record-high decline of $93.9 billion. Continue reading

China Has Officially Joined the Currency Wars

The only thing China had to wait for was the official inclusion into the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) reserve currency basket. Now it can devalue its currency as it pleases—and it may not even have a choice.

“A devaluation could be as much as 20 percent against the U.S. dollar because in real effective exchange rate terms the yuan is about 15 percent overvalued at the moment,” says Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Lombard Street Research.

The Chinese currency has gained 15 percent against other major currencies since the middle of last year, according to an analysis by Westpac Strategy Group. Continue reading

Global markets will only get more volatile and put UK lending at risk, Bank of England warns

The stock market turmoil that followed Black Monday could become a common occurence, with serious implications for bank lending in the UK

Modern technology and mathematical formulas mean dealers can execute split-second trades at higher volumes than ever before. But the downside to this is that when everyone uses similar algorithms, it results in a market with only buyers or only sellers, causing prices to swing violently, according to the Bank of England. Continue reading

Russian propaganda newspaper declares World War III on America, promises to topple the U.S. by early 2016

(NaturalNews) As news broke recently that Russian warplanes had dropped their first ordnance in civil-war-ravaged Syria, a noted Russian propaganda newspaper, the Komsomolskaya Pravda, was making a dire prediction: The U.S. will become embroiled in World War III by the end of 2015.

Only, it won’t be a war like the first two global conflagrations. The next world conflict will be waged economically, the article states, adding that, in fact, the first economic “shots” have already been fired.

The article, translated at the WatchingAmerica website, first claims that, during World War II, the U.S. “profited” by selling weapons to many of the countries involved in the conflict, “including the Soviet Union exclusively in exchange for gold.” Continue reading

Currency War: Dragging the World Toward World War III

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Echoes of 1934 are thundering with increasing intensity.

In 1934, United States President Franklin Delano Roosevelt outlawed the private ownership of gold. After confiscating billions in bullion, Roosevelt shocked the world by revaluing it. The cost for an ounce of gold, previously set at $20.67, was suddenly $35. Overnight, Roosevelt devalued the dollar by 69 percent.

The president told the country that it was a radical effort to stimulate America’s economy. A cheaper dollar would make America’s exports less expensive and help American companies sell more products to the rest of the world, he said. More money would flow into America, and more jobs would be created.

It did those things. And it also marched the world another giant step closer to war. Continue reading

China Actually Has Two Currencies—And It’s Fiddling Around With Both

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The problem with micromanaging the economy is that things become rather complicated. That’s why China needs two currencies, one for the mainland, one for international banks. Since the devaluation on August 11, it seems China is losing control of both.

The Renminbi (RMB) or yuan is used within mainland China and can be exchanged for other currencies very restrictively. It is primarily used in trade but also for tightly regulated inbound and outbound investments.

There is no real market for this exchange rate, instead the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) comes up with a fix every day and then trades around it. Continue reading