Russia and the Solecism of Power

For it is the solecism of power, to think to command the end, and yet not to endure the mean.     
Francis Bacon, Of Empire (1625)

Introduction

Nearly every discussion about Russia raises three questions: Who is to blame?  What is to be done?  And where is Russia heading?  This paper focuses on the third question, though the other two cannot be ignored entirely. 

Trump’s stealth North Korea move sidelines China, could be game-changer

President Donald Trump and China’s Xi JInping in Florida.

 

Just how the shape of the new global strategic architecture will settle out as the framework for the 21st Century is still open to challenge, but the key dynamic — the initial door to that new world — is now being opened by a deliberately-orchestrated U.S.-North Korea confrontation.

What is emerging beyond this door is an overarching strategic alternative to the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) démarche of “One Belt, One Road” dominance of the Eurasian and Indo-Pacific geopolitical space, and an alternative, or balance, to the PRC’s reach into Africa and the Americas.

The confrontation between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean (DPRK) leader Kim Jong-Un is very much just between those two leaders, with the People’s Republic of China somewhat marginalized. Beijing is now fighting to find a path into this equation.

US Population Migrating South to Less Taxed States

 

The US Census report has shown that the net migration from the New York City area has surged during 2016, and that even included myself. Indeed, much more people are leaving the New York region than any other major metropolitan area in the country. Since 2010, the New York area has lost almost 4.5% of its population. This included New Jersey, Connecticut, Long Island, and the lower Hudson Valley. The number of people who left in 2015 was 187,034. Last year, 2016, that number jumped to 223,423. The number of international immigrants settling in the tri-state area declined from 181,551 to 160,324. The international migration has slowed and this trend means that taxes will only rise.

US life expectancy is low and is now projected to be on par with Mexico by 2030

The poor levels of life expectancy in the U.S. against other rich nations has been laid bare in a new report, which predicts that minimal gains over the coming years will see the country have similar rates to Mexico by the year 2030.

In general, global life expectancy is on track to increase by the year 2030, according to the study released on Monday, but the U.S. is predicted to continue to lag behind its peers .

Germany’s Looming Demographic Cliff

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

 

 

GERMANY’S IMPORTANCE

Germany is the most populous and productive economy in Europe, with 80 million people and a GDP of almost $4 trillion. It’s also the world’s third largest exporter, and that’s why it had the largest trade surplus globally in 2014 with $285 billion.

For all of its economic power, Germany has a key weakness that could potentially be its Achilles heel: it’s projected that Germany’s population will decline significantly over the coming decades, and the ratio of workers to dependents will become one of the worst in the world.

Germany heading for financial MELTDOWN set to sink the EU, says leading expert

Maybe now people can see a connection between the incoming flood of refugees, mostly young able-bodied males fleeing poverty, and the crisis Germany faces: It’s own existence and control of Europe’s throne.

 

Germany’s economy is the glue that holds together Europe

 

WITH the biggest economy in Europe, Germany is the glue that underpins the eurozone but it could soon come unstuck.

The country’s power is set to unravel thanks to a toxic mix of misguided policies and demographics, according to one analyst.

Germany this year dropped below Japan to have the lowest birth rate in the world.

For every 1,000 people in the European country, just 8.2 babies are born a year.

Germany Will Conquer Europe With Migrants’ Help – Polish Media

Germany has already economically conquered Europe. The subjugation of Cyprus and then Greece are proof. All that’s left are to force Great Britain out and force France, Italy and Spain to fall in line. After this comes the United States of Europe and its EU Army, both of which are already in the making. To the Germany’s credit, it will be hard for anti-Germans and the rest of Europe to call today’s Germans racist or Nazis. This calculated move will help them shed off stereotypes from the past and allow further ascension on the world stage and a tighter grip over Europe.

 

 

By throwing its doors wide open to thousands of migrants Germany has a clever plan in mind. The influx of migrants will help solve the country’s precarious demographic situation, boost the economy and make Germany a moral example for the rest of Europe, a Polish journalist wrote Tuesday.

Germany plans to take in 800,000 migrants this year alone and millions more in the coming years. Fully aware of the most immediate downsides of this decision, the Germans are still taking the risk because they realize the long-term benefits this could bring them, Eliza Litak wrote in an article carried by wPolityce.pl news portal.

For Germany, Demography Is Doom

Britain and France are in far better shape, with an average of 12.5 births per 1,000 in from 2008-2013. The IMF expects both countries to overtake Germany in total GDP by the middle of century and possibly even by 2040, implying a radical shift in the European balance of power.

 

 

Germany’s economy dominates the EU, but if demography is destiny–and it is–then, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues in the Telegraph, Germany is doomed. I had not realized that the numbers are so grim:

Germany’s birth rate has collapsed to the lowest level in the world and its workforce will start plunging at a faster rate than Japan’s by the early 2020s, seriously threatening the long-term viability of Europe’s leading economy. …

The German government expects the population to shrink from 81m to 67m by 2060…

Demographic Shifts Could Radicalize Russia

Experts say changes could lead to social strife, sectarian conflict

Experts said Wednesday that a myriad of demographic, social, and economic problems could transform Russia into a virtually unrecognizable country in just a couple of decades that is more harmful to U.S. and Western interests.

As Russia’s native population shrinks, incorporates more Muslim immigrants, and remains tightly controlled by President Vladimir Putin, it risks social strife and sectarian conflict, said Ilan Berman, vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council and a former CIA and Department of Defense consultant, during a panel event at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

The country’s shrinking population is largely a result of declining fertility, high mortality rates, a surge in divorce rates and abortions, an AIDS “epidemic” stemming from rampant heroin use, and emigration, said Berman, author of the new book, Implosion: The End of Russia and What it Means for America.

Is Europe on the verge of demographic collapse?

A spectre is haunting Europe – the spectre of demographic suicide. Although the consequences of such a turnout could not be more serious, the problem attracts little public attention – indeed, most people may not even be aware of it. And experts can neither explain the cause nor prescribe a reliable remedy. The story is outlined in Population and Public Policy: Essays in Honour of Paul Demeny, published by the New York-based Population Council (2013).