A Country Matures, An Exchange Rate Declines
After two weeks on the road visiting clients your analyst returns with a better view of the consensus outlook. There is, though, much in the consensus to disagree with. In particular it seems peculiar that the consensus believes the democratically elected government of Italy, with policies entirely contrary to EU membership, will be put through the bureaucratic meat grinder in Rome and Brussels and turned into EU sausage, in a similar process that minced the political representatives of Greece.
While this might well be the case, it is hard to understand that the grinding destruction of this democracy, even if it is only moderate compared to the Greek experience, can be anything but bad for growth and asset prices in the EU. Disciplining these politicians to abandon their manifesto promises and follow the ways of the EU is highly unlikely to be a painless experience, either for Italy or the rest of the EU. Nonetheless, investors are content to believe that a painless disciplining of Italy’s elected representatives is all but inevitable. We shall see.
Perhaps the most prevailing consensus view is that the recent weakness of the RMB represents a Chinese counter-punch in the trade war with the US. Coming when it does, it is easy to see the accelerated decline of the RMB as a tactical and not a strategic move. Comments by the PBOC on July 3rd have probably reassured many investors that the managed exchange rate regime is not at risk and that the RMB will continue to be managed against a basket of currencies. Your analyst does not agree. Continue reading
This type of stimulus is at least far better than buying government debt. Governments do not create jobs that truly contribute to economic growth because government produces nothing. Unfortunately, buying the corporate bonds from bankers will only means they are relieving the banks of paper they do not want. The ECB is hopelessly fighting against the head wind of deflation because they do not control the fiscal side of the balance sheet. That means which they try to stimulate the economy, we have the European Commission plotting against the economy by attempting to enforce taxation and raise taxes at every possible turn on top of creating a Byzantine system of serious over-regulation that prevent business expansion and formation. Continue reading
Over the last decade, I’ve found my opinions coinciding more and more with those of SocGen strategist and “uber-bear” Albert Edwards. Last week he hit the headlines again with a claim that a “gut-wrenching slump” in profits amounts to an almost-certain predictor of recession. While the historic evidence for this is compelling, I’m not so sure this time couldn’t be slightly different — at least in terms of causes and effects. Continue reading
“Shunto” season has failed to grip Japan.
Translating as “spring wage offensive”, Shunto marks the annual Japanese ritual of wage bargaining between business groups and labour unions.
This year’s negotiations have been preceded by months of feverish lobbying from prime minister Shinzo Abe who has urged the country’s business groups to raise wages and help smash Japan’s deflationary mindset once and for all.
Olivier Blanchard, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and Adam Posen, a former Bank of England policymaker, have called for an unprecedented 10pc increase in nominal wages in 2016. In the last two years, average wages have risen by just 1pc.
As we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.
Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.
If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering: What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis?
Sadly, we think so. While there may be a market rescue that provide some relief in the near term, looking at the next few years, we will experience this as a time of unprecedented financial market turmoil, political upheaval and social unrest. The losses will be staggering. Markets are going to crash, wealth will be transferred from the unwary to the well-connected, and life for most people will get harder as measured against the recent past. Continue reading
Albert Edwards joins RBS in warning of a new crash, saying oil price plunge and deflation from emerging markets will overwhelm central banks, tip the markets and collapse the eurozone
The City of London’s most vocal “bear” has warned that the world is heading for a financial crisis as severe as the crash of 2008-09 that could prompt the collapse of the eurozone.
Albert Edwards, strategist at the bank Société Générale, said the west was about to be hit by a wave of deflation from emerging market economies and that central banks were unaware of the disaster about to hit them. His comments came as analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland urged investors to “sell everything” ahead of an imminent stock market crash. Continue reading
From Russell Napier of ERI-C
It’s Not a Pet, It’s a Falcon: How the decline of the RMB destroys belief in central banking and a successful reflation
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
– The Second Coming- W.B. Yeats
First catch your falcon, as the formidable Mrs Beeton might have said if she was in need of a method of catching her main course (see Mrs Beeton’s Book of Household Management 1861- ‘Recipe for Jugged Hare’). Continue reading
The signs of deflation are now flashing all over the globe. In our estimation, the possibility of an associated financial crisis is now dangerously high over the next few months.
As we’ve been saying for a while, our preferred model for how things are going to unfold follows the Ka-Poom! Theory as put out by Erik Janszen of iTulip.com.
That theory states that this epic debt bubble will ultimately burst first by deflation (the “Ka!”) before then exploding (the “Poom!”) in hyperinflation due to additional massive money printing efforts by frightened global central bankers acting in unison.
First an inwards collapse, then an outwards explosion. Ka-Poom!
We’ve been tracking the deflationary impulse for a while, and declared deflation the winner back in July of this year. Continue reading
August 20 (King World News) – The Stock Market Has Turned Bearish
Richard Russell: “As subscribers know, I wish the best for America and believe that America is the hope of the world. Yet there are a few things that worry me.
I believe the US economy is sinking into recession as described by John Williams of Shadow Statistics. I believe we are in a period of deflation and deleveraging. I am convinced that the Fed knows the economy is contracting and this is the reason that they have not yet raised rates. Continue reading
Many experts continue saying the second half of September 2015 and the first half of October 2015 is the beginning of a major and imminent turning point for the world economy — and much graver than what was seen in 2008 or the Great Depression. For example, former Reagan advisor Martin Armstrong and his forecasting model that has never gone wrong are predicting a hit in the first week of October 2015, or 2015.75.
See also: The Shift in Public Confidence: 2015.75
Batten down the hatches.
Societe Generale Economist Albert Edwards might have finally out-beared himself. He says the China devaluation is a step towards “a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008.”
In his latest note, Edwards says the Chinese currency devaluation is the beginning of a period of serious foreign exchange weaknesses in Asia. Continue reading
Markets ignored clear warnings in Europe and America that the money supply is catching fire, signalling a surge of inflation later this year
The global deflation trade is unwinding with a vengeance. Yields on 10-year Bunds blew through 1pc today, spearheading a violent repricing of credit across the world.
The scale is starting to match the ‘taper tantrum’ of mid-2013 when the US Federal Reserve issued its first gentle warning that quantitative easing would not last forever, and that the long-feared inflexion point was nearing in the international monetary cycle.
Paper losses over the last three months have reached $1.2 trillion. Yields have jumped by 175 basis points in Indonesia, 160 in South Africa, 150 in Turkey, 130 in Mexico, and 80 in Australia.
It is only a matter of time until the Euro collapses sinking into the abyss. The French presidential election could be the straw that stars the disintegration of the Euro. The reason is very clear. The economic abyss with youth unemployment over 60% warns there is the complete failure to create new jobs and overall 20% unemployment in Euroland would mean the end of the single currency with massive civil unrest. The problem is NOT Greece. Greece is illustrating the problem. Europe is holding on for dear life, but the end-game was began in 2008. That was the fateful year the Euro peaked. It was the end of times for Europe. The mindless people still think that a strong currency is like a stock and it is strength rather than weakness. This stems from the entire mixed up idea of inflation and deflation. The higher a currency in price, the more deflation one sees rather than inflation for assets are on the OPPOSITE side of a currency. Those touting a return to a gold standard are wishing for deflation where assets decline along with wages. Continue reading
We are only two months into 2015, and it has already proven to be the most volatile year for the economic environment since 2008-2009. We have seen oil markets collapsing by about 50 percent in the span of a few months (just as the Federal Reserve announced the end of QE3, indicating fiat money was used to hide falling demand), the Baltic Dry Index losing 30 percent since the beginning of the year, the Swiss currency surprise, the Greeks threatening EU exit (and now Greek citizens threatening violent protests with the new four-month can-kicking deal), and the effects of the nine-month-long West Coast port strike not yet quantified. This is not just a fleeting expression of a negative first quarter; it is a sign of things to come. Continue reading
The European Central Bank is getting ready to announce details of the unprecedented programme of government bond-buying it hopes will lift the bloc out of recession and a vortex of falling prices.
Convening in Cyprus on Thursday, President Mario Draghi and his 25-member governing council will be signing-off on plans to purchase €60bn-a-month in government and private sector assets first announced in January.
Few people understand the global economy and its (mis)management better than David Stockman — former director of the OMB under President Reagan, former US Representative, best-selling author of The Great Deformation, and veteran financier.
David is now loudly warning that events have entered the crack-up phase, which he predicts will be defined by the following 4 developments: Continue reading