All governments had better open their eyes for we are on the brink of a major convergence between both the Cycle of Civil Unrest, Civil War & Revolution and International War. Both of these models converge and as I pointed out at the Cycles of War Conference, this is the first time we have seen this convergence since the 1700s. Continue reading
Germany told Russia it must switch course in Crimea by next week or risk more sanctions as Ukraine’s deposed president warned of a possible civil war.
The European Union will discuss harsher penalties on March 17 barring “obvious changes in Russia’s actions,” German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said today in Estonia. A planned March 16 referendum in Crimea on whether to join Russia should be halted, he said. Toppled President Viktor Yanukovych told reporters in Russia that lawlessness is spreading in Ukraine, fomented by the “fascists and ultranationalists” who are in charge in Kiev. Continue reading
On March 9, a very influential geostrategic and ideological adviser of the Putin regime, Aleksandr Dugin, published his game plan for domination of Europe. The plan, which Dugin calls “the Russian Spring,” is presented as one of three scenarios for resolution of the current Ukrainian crisis. The other two, in which the Kremlin blinks in the face of Western pressure, result in thermonuclear war or complete global chaos.
If you want the real deal on the Ukraine, here it is. Berlin is going all in. There are no such thing as sporatic uprisings where college kids empty the university classrooms to go out, demonstrate with wooden picket signs, or throw bottles and stones at police officers in riot gear. These are 99.9% of the time well thought out and methodically planned in advance, such as the Occupy Wall Street (see also here) thugs.
KIEV/BERLIN (Own report) – Yesterday, the day after the German Chancellor held deliberations with two leaders of the Ukrainian opposition, protests in Kiev escalated into bloody confrontations. Demonstrators, unconditionally sponsored by Germany and other western countries for months, began, over the past few days, to arm themselves with firearms and ammunition. Two police officers were shot to death during yesterday’s uprising. This escalation into a bloody confrontation followed on the heels of government compliance with a fundamental demand of the demonstrators, just as it seemed that a de-escalation was about to begin – to the tactical disadvantage of the “German’s man” in Kiev, Vitali Klitschko, who has been calling for the president to resign. Klitschko, who flew to Berlin Monday, to discuss the next steps, threatened an even more bloody escalation and declared, that he does not “rule out the use of force in the evacuation of the Maidan.” One of the organizations he is relying on is explicitly named after Nazi collaborators, who had carried out mass-murder of Soviet Jews. Escalation strategies, such as those currently implemented in Kiev, are not alien to German foreign policy. Continue reading
Washington and Berlin raise the intensity another notch in wrestling Ukraine away from Russia. From the state-sponsored (FSB/KGB) RIA Novosti:
KIEV, February 19 (RIA Novosti) – At least 25 people, including nine police officers, were killed Tuesday in bloody clashes in the Ukrainian capital that are threatening to tip the former Soviet nation into civil conflict.
With police engaged in an overnight battle to clear central Kiev of anti-government protesters, fears abounded that the death toll could rise as eyewitnesses reported seeing bodies not apparently accounted for by the authorities.
The scale of the violence prompted UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to appeal for restraint and “genuine dialogue” between authorities and the opposition. Russia, which has staunchly backed President Viktor Yanukovych, accused Western governments of fanning tension by interfering in Ukraine’s internal affairs. Continue reading
WASHINGTON — Western militaries may lose access to critical materials needed for weapons and other systems, because of the growing demand for new technologies, questionable supply lines and production in unfriendly or dangerous countries, NATO documents show.
“Key strategic materials are those that are crucial in the manufacture of sophisticated military hardware or components such as airframes, gas turbines, rocket motors, munitions, armor and electronics,” according to a newly released NATO request for information. “These materials are becoming increasingly scarce.” Continue reading
The Fourth Reich’s push for capturing Ukraine intensifies:
KIEV/BERLIN (Own report) – Following the escalation of the violent protests in Kiev, Berlin’s favorite, Vitaly Klitschko, is threatening to launch a new “offensive” against the government. The offensive would begin, Klitschko announced on Wednesday, should President Yanukovych not resign by yesterday evening. The deadline passed without resignation. Tensions are rising. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has “various contacts” within the Ukrainian opposition, explained Chancellor Merkel, mounting pressure on the Ukrainian government by demanding that the government protect “the freedom of expression and peaceful assembly.” Last weekend’s surge in violence – which preceded the brutal police repression – was sparked by ultra rightwing activists, who had been participating in the “Euromaidan” protests from the very beginning and who, according to observers, are winning growing acceptance. “Progressive activists” have to fight “on two fronts” in Kiev today: “against the regime that supports police violence” but also “against extremist nationalism.” Ultra rightwing leaders are already threatening civil war. Continue reading
Saudi Arabia appears resolute: It wants Bashar Al-Assad out of Damascus. The Saudis view the fighting in Syria with the same intensity that they did the civil war in Yemen that raged in the 1960s—as a conflict with wide and serious repercussions that will shape the political trajectory of the Middle East for years to come.
The Syrian war presents the Saudis with a chance to hit three birds with one stone: Iran, its rival for regional dominance, Tehran’s ally Assad and his Hezbollah supporters. But Riyadh’s policy makers are wary. They know that once fully committed, it will be difficult to disengage. And so they are taking to heart the lessons of another regional war that flared on their border 50 years ago. Continue reading
As has been stated here many times: Expect war, not a peaceful resolution. The Assad regime realizes what happened to the leaders in Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Lebanon and Iraq, to name a few. They all wound up dead or imprisoned. When their last military stronghold gives way, which seems to be the Syrian air force in this case, expect the Assad regime to go “all-out” and for the conflict to likely ignite a powder keg engulfing the entire Middle East.
Furthermore, don’t expect the retaliation to just be “over there” in some far off region called the middle east. Both Syria and Iran have thousands of sleeper cells planted within the United States — and have been for well over a decade.
Lastly, events leading to an all-out regional war in the middle east could mean that Isaiah 17:1 will indeed be fulfilled during this generation.
Britain is planning to join forces with America and launch military action against Syria within days in response to the gas attack believed to have been carried out by President Bashar al-Assad’s forces against his own people.
Royal Navy vessels are being readied to take part in a possible series of cruise missile strikes, alongside the United States, as military commanders finalise a list of potential targets.
Government sources said talks between the Prime Minister and international leaders, including Barack Obama, would continue, but that any military action that was agreed could begin within the next week. Continue reading
Although both items need to be constantly looked at (50/50), the fundamental data lately is seemingly overriding the technical data. Observing geopolitics on a regular basis shows you the big picture where you can use inductive reasoning to hammer out the specifics in planning your future, be it from an investment standpoint or personal.
Had anyone asked back in January what kind of risks you thought might be giving financial markets a jolt by mid-year, odds are that you would have talked about the Federal Reserve’s intentions with respect to quantitative easing, the outlook for economic growth and whether S&P 500 companies are delivering the kind of earnings that analysts had been expecting.
Perhaps, given recent history, you might have thrown out an additional concern: That some unforeseen event in Spain or Italy might buffet the Eurozone and spill over into North American markets—after all, that has become an almost routine summertime occurrence. Continue reading
The Turkish government has plans to make a slight change to its laws to prevent coups. The contentious point in the constitution – Article 35 – has been used as justification by instigators of past coups.
Since 1960, there have been four military coups in Turkey that threw out elected governments. The last time a coup threatened the government in Turkey was 2007, when the military had a stand-off with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Now, the government is considering a historic step: changing Article 35 of the Turkish military’s internal laws. This would be an attempt to avoid future military coups by passing an amendment that would remove the possibility of the military getting involved in domestic affairs. The change in Article 35 would make the military only responsible for “threats from abroad.” Continue reading
(Reuters) – Egypt’s army commander and Islamist President Mohamed Mursi each pledged his life to defy the other as a deadline approached on Wednesday that will trigger a military takeover backed by protesters.
The military chiefs, wanting to restore order in a country racked by protests over Mursi’s Islamist policies, issued a call to battle in a statement headlined “The Final Hours”. They said they were willing to shed blood against “terrorists and fools” after Mursi refused to give up his elected office.
Mursi said, “The price … is my life.” Continue reading