Global Recession Coming – Even “Powerhouse” Germany and UK Slow “Dramatically”

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IMF 2015 Global National Debt Map – IMF

 

– IMF warn of “fresh financial crisis”
– German exports fall 5.2%, largest slump since recession of 2009
– German imports also fall 3.1%
– Many sectors across German economy see unexpected declines in factory orders and industrial production
– UK Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) report sharp rise in uncertainty
– UK PMI has fallen to lowest level since April 2013
– Hope for the best but be prepared for less benign scenarios

The IMF have been growing more vocal in recent weeks about the possibility of another financial crisis and severe recession. The head of financial stability at the IMF, José Viñals has said that this outlook “does not rely on extreme assumptions at all”. Continue reading

Today’s Turning Point on ECM

Yet today just may mark a very strange event that might be extremely important. Today, Russia gave the US 1 hour notice and began bombing both ISIS and rebels seeking to overthrow the Syrian government. It is extremely curious that this beginning precisely on the day of the ECM. Will this prove to be the start of international war? Continue reading

Greek deal in sight as Germany bows to huge global pressure for debt relief

Angela Merkel faces a defining moment in her political career as chorus of voices push for Greek debt relief

Germany is at last bowing to pressure as a chorus of countries and key institutions demand debt relief for Greece, a shift that could break the five-month stalemate and avert a potentially disastrous rupture of monetary union at this Sunday’s last-ditch summit.

In a highly significant move, the European Council has called on both sides to make major concessions, insisting that the creditor powers must do their part as the radical Syriza government puts forward a new raft of proposals on economic reforms before a deadline expires tonight.

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Greece Contemplates Nuclear Options: May Print Euros, Launch Parallel Currency, Nationalize Banks

As we said earlier today, following today’s dramatic referendum result the Greeks may have burned all symbolic bridges with the Eurozone. However, there still is one key link: the insolvent Greek banks’ reliance on the ECB’s goodwill via the ELA. While we have explained countless times that even a modest ELA collateral haircut would lead to prompt depositor bail-ins, here is DB’s George Saravelos with a simplified version of the potential worst case for Greece in the coming days:

The ECB is scheduled to meet tomorrow morning to decide on ELA policy. An outright suspension would effectively put the banking system into immediate resolution and would be a step closer to Eurozone exit. All outstanding Greek bank ELA liquidity (and hence deposits) would become immediately due and payable to the Bank of Greece. The maintenance of ELA at the existing level is the most likely outcome, at least until the European political reaction has materialized. This will in any case materially increase the pressure on the economy in coming days.

All of which of course, is meant to suggest that there is no formal way to expel Greece from the Euro and only a slow (or not so slow) economic and financial collapse of Greece is what the Troika and ECB have left as a negotiating card.

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EU Openly Wants To Overthrow the Greek Government

The President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, has stated that holding new elections in Greece is now mandatory when the people vote for the reform program of the creditors. He insists that any relief for the Greeks, which is blackmail keeping their banks closed, will be bridged with a technical transitional government until elections are held that approve only their candidates, and that this will be a requirement of further negotiations. Continue reading

IMF Numbers Warn the Troika Has Destroyed the Greek Economy

The IMF on Thursday issued its own analysis on the Greek economy. The new debt forecast numbers have been raised in recent months and while the IMF analysis is never on point (way too optimistic), this tends to make the new number even more shocking. The entire idea of lending more and more money and raising taxes only reduces the economy, increases bad loans, and perpetuates inflation. All these policies ever do is promote bondholders at the expense of the population. This is why our Solution is so critical. Continue reading

IMF Humiliates Greece, Repeats It Will Keep Funding Ukraine Even If It Defaults

One week ago, we were stunned to learn just how low the political organization that is the mostly US-taxpayer funded IMF has stooped when, a day after its negotiators demonstratively stormed out of the Greek negotiations with “creditors”,  Hermes’ ambassador-at-large Christone Lagarde said that the IMF “could lend to Ukraine even if Ukraine determines it cannot service its debt.” Continue reading

IMF Warns No Leeway on Payment as Merkel Urges Greece to Bow

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said Greece won’t be given a grace period if it fails to make a payment at the end of the month as Chancellor Angela Merkel said there’s still time to reach a deal on aid.

Lagarde, whose policies were labeled “criminal” last week by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, said that Greece will immediately be considered in default unless it pays about about 1.5 billion euros ($1.7 billion) due to the fund on June 30.

“It will be in default — it will be in arrears vis-a-vis the IMF, yes, on July 1,” Lagarde said at a press conference in Luxembourg where euro-area finance minister meet on Thursday to discuss the deadlock over Greece. “I hope it’s not the case, I really do.” Continue reading

Greece moves closer to eurozone exit after delaying €300m repayment to IMF

Athens takes creditor by surprise, saying it will bundle together €1.6bn of debt payments due to International Monetary Fund and settle up on 30 June

Greece has moved closer to default and possible exit from the eurozone after telling the International Monetary Fund it would not be making a debt repayment of €300m (£219m) due on Friday.

A crisis that has been going on for more than five years entered a new phase when Athens surprised the IMF by saying it intended to bundle up four payments in June totalling €1.6bn and make them all at the end of the month.

The move came as the Greek government reacted angrily to what was seen as an ultimatum from its creditors – including the IMF – that demanded further austerity and unpopular reforms to VAT, pensions and wage bargaining as the price for €7.2bn in fresh financial help.

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Greek insolvency would have ‘gigantic’ consequences, German minister says

A Greek insolvency would have ‘gigantic’ consequences for Europe, creating a ‘completely different aggregate state’, according to Angela Merkel’s second in command.

Sigmar Gabriel, vice-chancellor and economics minister of Germany, spoke passionately about the need to keep Greece in the Eurozone in order to maintain the single currency.

“I think it’s absolutely right that Germany and France once again try to find a solution, because the political consequences of Greece’s insolvency within the eurozone would of course be gigantic,” Gabriel said at a conference, according to the Wall Street Journal. Continue reading

Greece Abandons “Red Lines” As Troika Meets In Berlin To Craft “Deal”

We’ve been saying for months that the troika’s ultimate goal in negotiations with Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is to use financial leverage to force Syriza into abandoning its campaign mandate, thus sending a strong message to the EU periphery’s other ascendant socialists that threatening to disprove the idea of ‘euro indissolubility’ is not a viable bargaining strategy when it comes to extracting austerity concessions from creditors.

Over the past several days the political situation has come to a head with Tsipras expressing his extreme displeasure at the troika’s “coordinated leaks” and unwillingness to give even an inch on what the PM calls “absurd” demands. Continue reading

Are They About To Confiscate Money From Bank Accounts In Greece Just Like They Did In Cyprus?

Do you remember what happened when Cyprus decided to defy the EU?  In the end, the entire banking system of the nation collapsed and money was confiscated from private bank accounts.  Well, the nation of Greece is now approaching a similar endgame.  At this point, the Greek government has not received any money from the EU or the IMF since August 2014.  As you can imagine, that means that Greek government accounts are just about bone dry.  The new Greek government continues to insist that it will never “violate its anti-austerity mandate”, but the screws are tightening.  Right now the unemployment rate in Greece is over 25 percent and the banking system is on the verge of collapse.  It isn’t going to take much to set off a panic, and when it does happen there are already rumors that the EU plans to confiscate money from private bank accounts just like they did in Cyprus.

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Shape Of Greek Endgame Emerges: IMF Discussed “Cyprus-Like” Plan After Tsipras Warned Of Looming Default

As we said over the weekend, it’s all about Riga again for Greece. EU leaders will meet on Thursday and Friday in Latvia where PM Alexis Tsipras will try to secure a more favorable outcome than did FinMin Yanis Varoufakis who, last month in Riga, reportedly did more chiding and lecturing than negotiating, a performance that may ultimately cost him his job once all is said and done. The situation is far more urgent this time around, with Greece having tapped its IMF SDR account to make a payment to the Fund and with the banking sector running dangerously low on collateral that can be pledged for emergency liquidity. Continue reading