The Chinese ARE Dumping our Treasury Bonds

We warned about this in our Pentagon research back in late 2008 and early 2009 but there were plenty of skeptics. We emphasized the risk in the 2012 NY Times bestseller, Secret Weapon. In Chapter 9, we made a strong case that China could dump their Treasury bond holdings and work fervently to establish the Yuan as a reserve currency alternative to the American dollar. We pointed out how multiple Chinese sources were planning for this and labeled it “financial warfare.” We made it clear that this would prove deflationary for China but said “If China can tolerate such deflation and if it can transition effectively, it will be sitting in the shade.”

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While we knew then that the time had not yet arrived for China to make her move, we also knew it was just a matter of time. Starting in 2011, we began to address the risk of financial warfare in this Blog. Just look back at this February 2011 post where we argued that China had a long-term view and a five-year plan:

The Chinese Take a Long Term View; Evaluating Their 5YP

Why China will intervene in Iraq

China has consistently maintained its core principle of non-interference in the domestic affairs of other countries for over six decades, and it continues this policy toward Iraq during its ongoing battle against the Islamic State In Iraq and Syria (ISIS).  Although Beijing maintains this strong position of non-intervention, over the past several decades its sharp economic rise and growing middle class, together with its need to secure natural resources, represent markers for potential deviation from this longstanding approach.