As LEAP/E2020 anticipated since the end of 2011, the end of summer 2012 marks the beginning of the revival for Euroland with the emergence of a positive dynamic fed by two lasting phenomena: first, the progressive operational installation of the instruments bitterly discussed and decided upon during the last 18 months and, secondly, the visionary spark brought by the political changes of the last six months which have put Euroland’s medium to long term future back in the middle of the decision-making process. The Euro’s progress these past weeks offers a perfect illustration of the phenomenon (1). That being said, Europe will be in recession for the next six to twelve months. It just goes to show that the only good news that we announced in the June 2012 GEAB issue is far from being miraculous.
In a certain sense, it’s even the contrary, since henceforth it’s no longer possible to hide the global economy’s tragic state behind the pretext of the “Euro or Greek crisis”. The more Euroland advances constructively, the more the “Potemkinien” (2) character of the US, Chinese, Japanese and Brazilian… economies’ « health » will show itself. The tree will no longer hide the forest, namely that all the major global economies are entering recession or slowing growth simultaneously, leading the socio-economic and financial world into a black hole.
At the same time summer 2012 will have marked a major acceleration in world geopolitical dislocation with a Syrian conflict which becomes more dangerous for the Middle East and the world day by day (3), Israeli-Iranian tension which is ready to explode at any time, and widespread testing of declining US power – from the China Sea to Latin America via the whole Muslim world. The strategic-military world is heated white-hot as the massive resumption of arms sales worldwide illustrates for that matter, with the United States supplying 85% of the total (4).
For these reasons, LEAP/E2020 maintains its June 2012 Red Alert and estimates that, by the end of October 2012, the global economy will be sucked into a black hole against a backdrop of world geopolitics heated white-hot. Suffice it to say that the coming weeks will, according to our team, carry the planet away in a hurricane of unprecedented crises and conflicts.
Until recovery or destruction of the Dollar. As surely as the sky is blue, the latter will happen. QE3 is the nail in the coffin. When was the last time you borrowed your way out of debt?
If you really want to know what is going on in the economy, ignore what the Fed says and watch what it is does.
So what is the Fed doing? Bernanke’s announcement says the Fed will now spend a whopping $40 billion per month—$480 billion per year—purchasing mortgage-backed securities from the big Wall Street banks.
He says this is an effort to push down mortgage rates and get more people buying and building houses, and thus create jobs. If this is the best the Fed has to offer, America is in big trouble. Mortgage rates are already at historic lows, and people are not buying houses. Pushing record low rates a few fractions of a percent lower won’t do much. What is more likely to happen is that the big banks will finally have an opportunity to unload all their garbage subprime-mortgage-backed securities at the expense of taxpayers. This is probably the real unspoken motive.
But if that part of the Federal Reserve’s announcement wasn’t shocking enough, what it said next should blow your socks off. The Fed said it was writing itself a blank check for how much it could spend until the labor market improved “substantially.” It gave itself no predefined limit on how long, or on how much it could spend under this new QE3 program. It is completely open ended. It can go on forever.
Printing money to buy things is “Zimbabwe policy.” We all know what happened to Zimbabwe when it tried this. Eventually it cost Zimbabweans billions of dollars to buy a banana. This is where the QE road leads.
It is happening already. Within just a few hours of Bernanke’s statement, the dollar had lost over half a percent in value. On Friday it lost more than half a percent again.
In two days, the dollar lost more than a percent of its value. And that was due to just the announcement. The dollar printing has barely started.
The Federal Reserve’s QE policy will drive the dollar “through the floor,” says Peter Schiff, ceo of Euro Pacific Capital.
“This is a disastrous monetary policy; it’s kamikaze monetary policy,” Schiff told cbnc. “The dollar … is going to be in free fall at some point … ultimately there’s going to be a currency crisis.”
America needs to prepare for massive economic upheaval. America’s top banker has signaled that it is quantitative easing or sudden death for the economy. There is no choice. If the money printing stops, America stops. But that means the dollar is going to get killed. QE will destroy the dollar, and America’s standard of living.
Tough times are coming.
Full article: QE3: Dollar Killer (The Trumpet)
Just days after high-level US-China economic talks in Beijing, the Federal Reserve approved an application from Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to buy a majority stake in the US subsidiary of Bank of East Asia.
The transaction will make ICBC the first Chinese state-controlled bank to acquire retail bank branches in the United States.
ICBC has been the most aggressive of China’s “big four” banks in expanding overseas.
According to the Fed the bank has total assets of roughly $2.5 trillion.
It will buy up to 80 percent of the US unit of the Hong Kong-based Bank of East Asia, which operates 13 branches in New York and California.
The broad expansion of China’s footprint in the US market comes amid a series of financial reforms in China that could begin to open the lucrative market to US firms.
Full article: Fed clears China’s first US bank takeover (Yahoo!)