The world economy can’t handle even one US rate hike, strategist Sri-Kumar says

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Even one small interest rate increase by the Fed could have a sweeping impact on U.S. and world economies, Komal Sri-Kumar told CNBC on Monday.

“I think they are going to hike” on March 15, Sri-Kumar said on “Squawk Box,” echoing a theory shared by many analysts. “But that is going to prompt capital outflows from the euro zone, especially with the political risk. It is going to increase the capital outflow from China, and the U.S. economy will feel the impact.”

These moves would strengthen the dollar against other currencies, putting downward pressure on the euro, said Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies.

German 10-year sovereign bond yields turn negative for first time

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The yield on the 10-year benchmark German bund fell into negative territory for the first time ever on Tuesday morning, amid global growth concerns and jitters over the U.K.’s upcoming referendum on its European Union membership.

At around 8.30 a.m. London time, the yield hit zero and briefly fell into negative territory as investors continued to flock to safe-haven assets. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions and a negative yield implies that investors are effectively paying the German government for the privilege of parking their cash.

The Fed is Now Cornered

As you know, I’ve been calling for a bond market crisis for months now. That crisis has officially begun in Greece, a situation that we addressed at length other articles.This crisis will be spreading in the coming months. Currently it’s focused in countries that cannot print their own currencies (the PIIGS in Europe, particularly Greece).

However, China and Japan are also showing signs of trouble and ultimately the bond crisis will be coming to the US’s shores.

These black swans pose biggest threats to market, says SocGen

 

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — So-called black-swan events are by definition highly improbable. But that hasn’t stopped the economists at Société Générale from attempting to identify a few scenarios that could blindside the market.

In its ‘Global Economic Outlook’ report released on Monday, SocGen listed six such unlikely events that pose the biggest threats. Those include a hard economic landing in China and the possibility of a referendum in the U.K. on whether to remain in the European Union.

Citi Warns “Central Banks’ Grip On The World Economy Is Waning”

While central banks’ grip on the economy seems to be waning, notes Citi’s Matt King, additional liquidity still seems as potent as ever when it comes to propping up global markets. The question in our minds revolves around whether central banks remain willing to keep pumping when the economic benefits are so questionable. Equally, though, valuations are already so elevated that we doubt they can afford to stop. One way or another, this feels like a recipe for increased volatility.

‘Unprecedented’ $80 Billion Pulled From Bond Funds

A record amount of money poured out of exchange-traded and mutual bond funds in June, according to a fresh report by TrimTabs, nearly double the amount pulled out of bond funds at the height of the financial crisis in October 2008.

Investor fears over the scaling back of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond purchasing program has seen the yield on 10-year Treasurys rise sharply to 2.5 percent as $80 billion left bond funds in June, according to the research.

“The herd is scrambling for the exit this month as bond yields back up across the board and central bankers hint that they might provide less monetary stimulus in the future,” TrimTabs CEO David Santschi said in a research note on Sunday. “We estimate that bond mutual funds have lost $70.8 billion in June through Thursday, June 27, while bond exchange-traded funds have lost $9.0 billion.”

Euro Officials Begin to Weigh Greek Exit as Euro Weakens (Update 1)

“We’re really getting to a denouement,” Michael O’Sullivan, head of portfolio strategy at Credit Suisse Private Banking, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We’re getting to the part where a decision has to be made” on whether Greece leaves the 17-nation currency union, he said.

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A Greek departure from the euro could trigger a default- inducing surge in bond yields, capital flight that might spread to other indebted states and a resultant series of bank runs. Although Greece accounts for 2 percent of the euro-area’s economic output, its exit would fragment a system of monetary union designed to be irreversible and might cause investors to raise the threat of withdrawal by other states.

Full article: Euro Officials Begin to Weigh Greek Exit as Euro Weakens (Update 1) (Bloomberg)