Gold has not bottomed and the US Federal Reserve will collapse in the next 10 years, says renowned investor Jim Rogers.
“100 years ago you could not have named the head of most central banks in the world,” Rogers told Mineweb. “Now they’re all rockstars.” Gold and equity markets have increasingly been locked in Fed-watch mode in 2013, obsessing over when or whether chairman Ben Bernanke would taper the bank’s vast bond buying scheme. Continue reading
As previously mentioned by Marc Farber, if there’s any ‘taper’, it will be largely symbolic and the problem will only resurface sometime soon down the road.
“So at some stage the economy will weaken again, and at that point, the Fed will argue, ‘Well, we haven’t done enough, we have to do more.'”
The Federal Reserve will reduce its $85bn a month in bond purchases by $10bn starting in January
The US Federal Reserve last night announced plans to start weaning America off quantitative easing (QE), in a move which signals the central bank’s confidence in the stability of the US economy.
The central bank said that it will pare its $85bn-a-month bond buying scheme back to $75bn next month, and continue ratcheting it down in “measured steps” if the US economic recovery remains on course. Continue reading
“The Fed will never end QE for good,” the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” “They will continue because these programs, once they’re introduced, usually keep on going.”
The Fed will announce its decision at 12:30 p.m. EST on Wednesday, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will follow that up with a 2:30 p.m. news conference. Expectations for the meeting are mixed, but more that 50 percent of Wall Streeters expect the Fed to taper its QE program in either December or January, according to the CNBC Fed Survey. As economic data have improved, many investors are guessing that the Fed no longer considers QE to be as vital as before.
But Faber said the good times cannot last. Continue reading
The biggest US banks would be required to hold enough easily sold assets to survive a 30-day credit drought under proposed new Federal Reserve liquidity rules.
The Federal Reserve liquidity coverage ratio proposal, approved unanimously at a meeting in Washington, goes further than the Basel III measure adopted in January and calls for earlier implementation than the EU. Continue reading
The following is an article published originally in German, translated in the best way Google can offer. Because this is fresh off the German press, don’t expect it to hit American news outlets until another week or so — and likely not on the major national outlets.
When the BIS speaks, markets listen. This is essentially a jaw dropper of an announcement. They realize that all the QE heroin injections are not working and that there is no way to financially turn the American economy around — it’s mathematically impossible. They also know that the US financial leadership knows. The day of reckoning is near and it’s not just the US that will be affected and, although it will suffer the worst, the entire world over is going to go through a change unheard of in its entire history.
(Für die Lesern, dass deutschen sind, klicken Sie bitte auf dem original Link.)
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is the current situation on the financial markets as worse than before the Lehman bankruptcy. The warning of the BIS could be the reason why the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to continue indefinitely to print money: Central banks have lost control of the debt-tide and give up.
The decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to continue indefinitely to print money (here ) might have fallen on “orders from above”.
Apparently, the central banks dawns that it is tight.
The most powerful bank in the world, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has published a few days ago in its quarterly report for the possible end of the flood of money directly addressed – and at the same time described the situation on the debt markets as extremely critical. The “extraordinary measures by central banks” – aka the unrestrained printing – had awakened in the markets the illusion that the massive liquidity pumped into the market could solve the fundamental problems (more on the huge rise in debt – here ). Continue reading
A record amount of money poured out of exchange-traded and mutual bond funds in June, according to a fresh report by TrimTabs, nearly double the amount pulled out of bond funds at the height of the financial crisis in October 2008.
Investor fears over the scaling back of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond purchasing program has seen the yield on 10-year Treasurys rise sharply to 2.5 percent as $80 billion left bond funds in June, according to the research.
“The herd is scrambling for the exit this month as bond yields back up across the board and central bankers hint that they might provide less monetary stimulus in the future,” TrimTabs CEO David Santschi said in a research note on Sunday. “We estimate that bond mutual funds have lost $70.8 billion in June through Thursday, June 27, while bond exchange-traded funds have lost $9.0 billion.” Continue reading
The US Federal Reserve has jumped the gun. It has mishandled its exit strategy from quantitative easing, triggering a global bond rout that it did not anticipate, and is struggling to control.
It has set off an emerging market shock and risks “blowback” from a fresh spasm of the eurozone debt crisis, and it is letting all this happen at the same time, before the US economy is safely out of the woods.
It has violated its own counter-deflation strategy, tightening monetary policy even though core PCE inflation has fallen to the lowest levels in living memory and below levels deemed dangerous enough in the past to warrant a blast of emergency stimulus. It is doing so even though the revival of bank lending has faded.
The entire pivot by the Federal Open Market Committee is mystifying, almost amateurish, and risks repeating the errors made by the Bank of Japan a decade ago, and perhaps repeating a mini-1937 when the Fed lost its nerve and tipped the US economy into a second leg of the Great Depression. “It’s all about tighter policy,” was the lonely lament by St Louis Fed chief James Bullard. Continue reading
Today one of the top economists in the world told King World News that despite bounces, stocks will continue to crater and he has positioned his clients short for a collapse in global markets. Michael Pento, founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, also warned that central planners now have the world headed into a depression.
“You’ve seen the releases from China, and now the Fed is feigning an interest in letting markets work. I believe it’s because they have duped themselves into believing that all of the cocaine they have put the economy on, in order to put a floor under real estate and give a boost to equity markets, isn’t the reason why we have some semblance of growth in global GDP. Continue reading
Wednesday night’s panic in Tokyo, where the Nikkei dropped a stomach churning 7pc, kicking off a global chain-reaction that saw the FTSE fall 143.48 points, demonstrates just how difficult it is going to be for the world’s central banks to exit their loose money policies.
It’s not even as if Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, said he was planning to exit; in fact, initially he said the reverse, in testimony to Congress. It was only in the Q&A, and in minutes to the last meeting of the Fed’s Open Markets Committee, that a clear bias emerged to slow the pace of asset purchases “in the next few meetings”, so long as the economic data were strong enough. Continue reading
My view is that the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan “caused” the gold crash. The rest is noise. The Fed assault began in February when it published a paper warning that the longer quantitative easing continues, the harder it will be for the bank to extricate itself.
The report was co-written by former Fed governor Frederic Mishkin, often deemed Ben Bernanke’s “alter ego”. It said the Fed’s capital base could be wiped out “several times” once borrowing costs climb. The window will start shutting by 2014, with trouble then compounding at a “dramatic” pace.
This was a shock. It suggested that the Fed has lost its nerve, and will think long and hard before launching a fresh blitz of money if growth falters. Continue reading
When coming from PIMCO, alarm bells should be going off.
Mr. Bernanke never provided additional clarity as to what he meant by “no cost.” Perhaps he was referring to zero-bound interest rates, although at the time in 2002, 10-year Treasuries were at 4%. Or perhaps he knew something that American citizens, their political representatives, and almost all investors still don’t know: that quantitative easing – the purchase of Treasury and Agency mortgage obligations from the private sector – IS essentially costless in a number of ways. That might strike almost all of us as rather incredible – writing checks for free – but that in effect is what a central bank does. Yet if ordinary citizens and corporations can’t overdraft their accounts without criminal liability, how can the Fed or the European Central Bank or any central bank get away with printing “electronic money” and distributing it via helicopter flyovers in the trillions and trillions of dollars?
Well, the answer is sort of complicated but then it’s sort of simple: They just make it up. When the Fed now writes $85 billion of checks to buy Treasuries and mortgages every month, they really have nothing in the “bank” to back them. Supposedly they own a few billion dollars of “gold certificates” that represent a fairy-tale claim on Ft. Knox’s secret stash, but there’s essentially nothing there but trust. When a primary dealer such as J.P. Morgan or Bank of America sells its Treasuries to the Fed, it gets a “credit” in its account with the Fed, known as “reserves.” It can spend those reserves for something else, but then another bank gets a credit for its reserves and so on and so on. The Fed has told its member banks “Trust me, we will always honor your reserves,” and so the banks do, and corporations and ordinary citizens trust the banks, and “the beat goes on,” as Sonny and Cher sang. $54 trillion of credit in the U.S. financial system based upon trusting a central bank with nothing in the vault to back it up. Amazing! Continue reading
Until recovery or destruction of the Dollar. As surely as the sky is blue, the latter will happen. QE3 is the nail in the coffin. When was the last time you borrowed your way out of debt?
If you really want to know what is going on in the economy, ignore what the Fed says and watch what it is does.
So what is the Fed doing? Bernanke’s announcement says the Fed will now spend a whopping $40 billion per month—$480 billion per year—purchasing mortgage-backed securities from the big Wall Street banks.
He says this is an effort to push down mortgage rates and get more people buying and building houses, and thus create jobs. If this is the best the Fed has to offer, America is in big trouble. Mortgage rates are already at historic lows, and people are not buying houses. Pushing record low rates a few fractions of a percent lower won’t do much. What is more likely to happen is that the big banks will finally have an opportunity to unload all their garbage subprime-mortgage-backed securities at the expense of taxpayers. This is probably the real unspoken motive.
But if that part of the Federal Reserve’s announcement wasn’t shocking enough, what it said next should blow your socks off. The Fed said it was writing itself a blank check for how much it could spend until the labor market improved “substantially.” It gave itself no predefined limit on how long, or on how much it could spend under this new QE3 program. It is completely open ended. It can go on forever.
Printing money to buy things is “Zimbabwe policy.” We all know what happened to Zimbabwe when it tried this. Eventually it cost Zimbabweans billions of dollars to buy a banana. This is where the QE road leads.
It is happening already. Within just a few hours of Bernanke’s statement, the dollar had lost over half a percent in value. On Friday it lost more than half a percent again.
In two days, the dollar lost more than a percent of its value. And that was due to just the announcement. The dollar printing has barely started.
The Federal Reserve’s QE policy will drive the dollar “through the floor,” says Peter Schiff, ceo of Euro Pacific Capital.
“This is a disastrous monetary policy; it’s kamikaze monetary policy,” Schiff told cbnc. “The dollar … is going to be in free fall at some point … ultimately there’s going to be a currency crisis.”
America needs to prepare for massive economic upheaval. America’s top banker has signaled that it is quantitative easing or sudden death for the economy. There is no choice. If the money printing stops, America stops. But that means the dollar is going to get killed. QE will destroy the dollar, and America’s standard of living.
Tough times are coming.
Full article: QE3: Dollar Killer (The Trumpet)
While the Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke is holding off on additional quantitative easing measures, across the Pacific the Bank of Japan has initiated a new round of asset buying.
According to the Financial Times , the Bank of Japan has announced that more quantitative easing is being implemented in the island nation due to “slowing growth and persistent deflationary forces in the world’s largest economy.”
In the new round, the Bank of Japan will buy $61 billion of assets to inject greater liquidity into the economy as the “lost decade” lingers years longer than its name implies. In addition to the asset buying, the Bank of Japan is maintaining interest rates between zero and 0.1% .
With the recent move by China to relax controls on the yuan, currency devaluations continue to be implemented as a Keynesian response to recession by governments and central banks around the world.
Full article: Bank of Japan opens fire in currency wars (NASDAQ)
Panic is in the air as gasoline prices move above $4.00 per gallon. Politicians and pundits are rounding up the usual suspects, looking for someone or something to blame for this latest outrage to middle class family budgets. In a rare display of bipartisanship, President Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner are both wringing their hands over the prospect of seeing their newly extended Social Security tax cut gobbled up by rising gasoline costs.
Unfortunately, the talking heads that are trying to explain the reasons for high oil prices are missing one tiny detail. Oil prices aren’t high right now. In fact, they are unusually low. Gasoline prices would have to rise by another $0.65 to $0.75 per gallon from where they are now just to be “normal”. And, because gasoline prices are low right now, it is very likely that they are going to go up more—perhaps a lot more.
What the politicians, analysts, and pundits are missing is that prices are ratios. Gasoline prices reflect crude oil prices, so let’s use West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to illustrate this crucial point.
Full article: Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling (Forbes)
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has made it official: After its latest two day meeting, it announced its goal to devalue the dollar by 33 percent over the next 20 years. The debauch of the dollar will be even greater if the Fed exceeds its goal of a 2 percent per year increase in the price level.
An increase in the price level of 2 percent in any one year is barely noticeable. Under a gold standard, such an increase was uncommon, but not unknown. The difference is that when the dollar was as good as gold, the years of modest inflation would be followed, in time, by declining prices. As a consequence, over longer periods of time, the price level was unchanged. A dollar 20 years hence was still worth a dollar.
But, an increase of 2 percent a year over a period of 20 years will lead to a 50 percent increase in the price level. It will take 150 (2032) dollars to purchase the same basket of goods 100 (2012) dollars can buy today. What will be called the “dollar” in 2032 will be worth one-third less (100/150) than what we call a dollar today.
Full article: The Federal Reserve’s Explicit Goal: Devalue The Dollar 33% (Business Insider)