COMMENT: Hi Marty,
I must say your analysis of the dow for the last six months is simply mind blowing.
Everything you said has been accurate. You are right that most will not get what your saying because they are stuck in a linear world – not a dynamic world.
You did say markets would churn into May. You were SPOT on. I guess what throws most is when you say we could get a high in May/June or September. They can’t process the dynamism. They guys would be good candidates for government work where they can just try control everything.
Indeed I am looking forward to the biggest “mind twisting” trade of the century, as you say. It is looking at this stage like a May/June high – everything is truly connected. You have opened my eyes forever.
REPLY: It is so hard for many to understand how everything is connected and to separate me from the computer. The vast majority who disagree always make this personal rather than the analysis. The churning of the Dow until May was connected to the dollar rise and the collapse of the Euro on just one level. If you would normally see a decline that everyone was calling for in the US market, they missed the currency play which would provide steady support for the Dow. Continue reading
At the beginning of 2014, Detroit may be bankrupt, but they’re cheering the five-year-old U.S. auto bailout in Italy. That’s because after being the beneficiary of billions in U.S. taxpayer largesse, Fiat, the leading Italian auto company, is going to buy its final stake in Chrysler from that other big bailout recipient, the United Auto Workers (UAW).
A lot of gold bugs think the price is being manipulated somehow, or that there’s some divergence between what’s going on in “paper” gold (gold prices that are tied to ETFs) and what’s going on in physical gold (people buying ingots or jewelery).
Randall W. Forsyth at Barron’s fans the flames of goldbug conspiracy theorists a bit this weekend, arguing that there have been suspicious sales in gold seen on the exchanges (probably driven by the ETFs).
These improbable moves have made gold bugs suspicious, which isn’t unusual. Folks who own gold do so because they don’t trust the status quo, especially when it comes to government-issued paper money. But just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean somebody isn’t out to get you. They point to bursts of selling on Friday, April 12, which resulted in prices plunging by more than 5%, and to dumping that resumed the following Monday in Asia, early in the day when markets are illiquid. That culminated in a 9% collapse by the time the New York market had settled. But a seller who wanted to unload a large position at the optimal price would have done precisely the opposite—liquidate as discreetly as possible. Instead, sellers dumped the equivalent of more than 300 tons of the metal in staccato-like blasts during those sessions. Continue reading