We are on the threshold of a new economics that would form the basis of a new public policy quite different from the one that was followed within the neo-classical paradigm that has held sway over the last six decades. Here I examine briefly the origins and nature of the latest crisis in the world capitalist economy and its implications for economic theory.
In the process of its growth, the world economy has undergone a structural change in the post-war period in terms of two important features. First, the multinational corporations that emerged in this period not only sold goods and services on a global scale but were able to achieve internationalisation in their production processes such that different components of a particular good could be manufactured in their facilities in different countries to take advantage of country specific resource endowments. This laid the basis of an unprecedented growth in productivity, and profits. Given the problem of investing these profits within the sphere of production, due to demand constraints, profits from the sphere of production began to flow into the financial sphere. Continue reading
Banking expert warns cyber threat is so great we all need two accounts to guarantee access to cash
A leading banking academic and former adviser to the Bank of England has said everyone should have two bank accounts – so they can still access money if a major bank is crippled by a cyber attack.
Peter Hahn, senior fellow in banking at London’s Cass Business School, and between 2009 and 2014 a senior adviser to the Bank of England, said cyber crime was a new and growing risk which tended to be “not discussed”.
The cracks are beginning to show. The chickens from the $72.8 trillion exposure to derivatives are also yet to come home to roost.
In a late night announcement that shocked analysts, Germany’s biggest bank blamed huge impairment charges of €5.8bn for the unexpected losses. Forecasts had been for profits of around €1bn.
Washington’s IQ follows the Fed’s interest rate — it is negative. Washington is a black hole into which all sanity is sucked out of government deliberations.
Washington’s failures are everywhere visible. We can see the failures in Washington’s wars and in Washington’s approach to China and Russia.
In 2004 I predicted in a nationally televised conference in Washington, DC, that the US would be a Third World country in 20 years. Noam Chomsky says we are already there now in 2015. Here is a recent quote from Chomsky: Continue reading
Collapsing commodities prices, erratic market turmoil and the bursting of Chinese bubbles are leading to a crisis in confidence in the economic system across the globe. The long-expected crisis to which the global financial and systemic crisis in 2008 may have been a mere prelude may be upon us.
Governments have no appetite for further bailouts. The EU states have passed legislation which will make the banks or rather unfortunate and unsuspecting depositors liable for the bank’s lending and speculative profligacy. Continue reading
You’ve probably read that there is a “war on cash” being waged on various fronts around the world. What exactly does a “war on cash” mean?
It means governments are limiting the use of cash and a variety of official-mouthpiece economists are calling for the outright abolition of cash. Authorities are both restricting the amount of cash that can be withdrawn from banks, and limiting what can be purchased with cash.
These limits are broadly called “capital controls.” Continue reading
The financial system is predominantly comprised of digital money. Actual physical Dollars bills and coins only amount to $1.36 trillion. This is only a little over 10% of the $10 trillion sitting in bank accounts. And it’s a tiny fraction of the $20 trillion in stocks, $38 trillion in bonds and $58 trillion in credit instruments floating around the system.
Suffice to say, if a significant percentage of people ever actually moved their money into physical cash, it could very quickly become a systemic problem.
Indeed, this is precisely what caused the 2008 meltdown, when nearly 24% of the assets in Money Market funds were liquidated in the course of four weeks. The ensuing liquidity crush nearly imploded the system. Continue reading
Earlier today in “Panic: China Central Bank Steps In To Bailout Stocks As Underwater Traders Pray For A Rebound,” we noted (without much surprise) that the PBoC has officially taken the plunge. Late on Sunday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that China’s central bank is set to inject capital into China Securities Finance Corp which will in turn use the funds to help brokerages expand their businesses and reinvigorate stocks. Translation: China’s central bank is now underwriting brokers’ margin lending businesses. Continue reading
The IMF on Thursday issued its own analysis on the Greek economy. The new debt forecast numbers have been raised in recent months and while the IMF analysis is never on point (way too optimistic), this tends to make the new number even more shocking. The entire idea of lending more and more money and raising taxes only reduces the economy, increases bad loans, and perpetuates inflation. All these policies ever do is promote bondholders at the expense of the population. This is why our Solution is so critical. Continue reading
There are large signs of stress now present in the credit markets. You might not know it from today’s multi-generationally low interest rates, but other key measures such as liquidity and volatility are flashing worrying signs.
Look, we all know that this centrally planned experiment forcing financial assets ever higher is simply fostering multiple bubbles, each in search of a pin. As all bubbles do, they are going to end with bang.
I keep my eyes on the credit markets because that’s where the real trouble is brewing. Continue reading
Another added to the bankers list.
Jimmy Lee, one of the foremost investment bankers of his generation, has died suddenly, JPMorgan Chase said on Wednesday.
Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan, said Mr Lee, 62, “was a master of his craft, but he was so much more — he was an incomparable force of nature”.
He died in hospital on Wednesday morning after being taken ill during exercise, one person familiar with the matter said. Continue reading
The stories are all over the Internet. Governments are forcing us into a cashless society. Supposedly the pretext is terrorism, and the real reason is to take more control. No doubt more power appeals to politicians, and banning cash seems like the next step after mandatory reporting of cash transactions. However, I think there is a more serious driver than simple power lust.
A more compelling case is that cash banning is the logical follow up to bail-ins. Most people think a bail-in is when banks steal your deposit. So it seems to make sense that governments want to force people to keep their cash in the bank. Then they are easy meat for the next bail-in. Continue reading
Indeed, our modern western financial and banking system with its massive dependency on single interface websites, servers and the internet faces serious risks that few analysts have yet to appreciate and evaluate.We previously referred to Russian Prime Minister Medvedev’s allusion to cyber warfare when he stated the Russia’s response to U.S. attempts to have it locked out of the SWIFT system that the Russian response “economically and otherwise – will know no limits.”
Dormant malware, apparently of Russian origin had previously been discovered buried in the software that runs the Nasdaq stock exchange according to Bloomberg.
Given that a military confrontation is not desired by Russia it is likely that cyber-warfare will be part of Russian arsenal in any confrontation with the U.S. and NATO countries. Continue reading
The lack of faith in central bank trustworthiness is spreading. First Germany, then Holland, and Austria, and now – as we noted was possible previously – Texas has enacted a Bill to repatriate $1 billion of gold from The NY Fed’s vaults to a newly established state gold bullion depository…”People have this image of Texas as big and powerful … so for a lot of people, this is exactly where they would want to go with their gold,” and the Bill includes a section to prevent forced seizure from the Federal Government. Continue reading
Looking back at the Lehman Brothers collapse of 2008, it’s amazing how quickly it all happened. In hindsight there were a few early-warning signs, but the true scale of the disaster publicly unfolded only in the final moments before it became apparent that Lehman was doomed.
And the rest is history.
Could this happen to Deutsche Bank?
By the time we are aware of a crisis – if one is in the offing — it will already be a roaring blaze by the time it is known publicly. It is by now well-established that truth is the first casualty of all banking crises. There will be little in the way of early warnings. To that end, we begin connecting the dots: Continue reading