The Next Domino Falls As Predicted… Here’s What Comes Next

 

I recently spent several weeks in Italy, taking the pulse of the country. The Italian referendum on December 4 turned out exactly how I predicted it would.

The “No” vote won in a landslide, with 59% of the vote versus 41% for “Yes,” with a 70% turnout.

The pro-EU Prime Minister promptly announced his resignation after the crushing defeat.

A surging populist party waits in the wings. They’re now likely a matter of months away from taking power and then holding a new referendum on whether Italy should dump the euro and go back to the lira.

If that happens, Italians will likely vote to leave. Continue reading

Italian Banks Collapse, Short Sales Banned As Loan Loss Fears Mount

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Italian bank stocks are crashing (with BMPS down 40% year-to-date) as Reuters reports that investors are growing increasingly nervous about how the sector will cope with lower interest rates and a 200 billion euro ($218 billion) pile of loans that are unlikely to be repaid. The broad banking sector is down 4% with stocks suspended, and in light of this bloodbath, Italian regulators have decided in their wisdom, to ban short-selling of some bank stocks (which has driven hedgers into the CDS market, spking BMPS credit risk). Continue reading